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Bob Chill

March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis

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4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

SPC upper panels showing warm tongue still supporting weak surface low in KY, have to think that these early models are losing the earlier plot without any real change in signal. Hoping that the Euro shows its superior skill this time and sets things back on track. Key problem to be resolved is how all that warmth and moisture west of the mountains is magically pulled away without influencing the shape of the coastal low, a more credible solution is the tucked one which these models have abandoned. Thinking that the Euro might slow down this progression and keep the low tucked while remnants of the current low are pulled around the 500 mb low and out towards ORF. 

Anyway, bet that the Euro has a better look than any of these other models and that it verifies better too. 

Hope you're right!!

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I look out the window and I see more drizzle lol. I look at the radar and I see an area that may be snow, moving north toward my backyard.

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3 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

0z nam through 10 am tomorrow:

43F8268D-0682-4C1F-848A-289D1EA317DA.thumb.png.bc99f63cc7ca528dd1c8975151bf1a02.png

18z nam run same time frame:

4420773A-E36E-4EBC-A7E0-D04B79792425.thumb.png.85a994e93ff5b7cf1c99ee2d2b1bc3ca.png

 

Not trolling just saying. Major reduction on 0z nam. Plain and simple. Hopefully wrong 

NAMs have been so inconsistent, who cares?  I have 2" already and it is snowing like crazy out there right now!! It is getting close to the 8:00 am forecast amounts at 1:22 am!!  Don't think the NAMs are handling it well here in Augusta Co at least.

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1 minute ago, Jebman said:

the nams are inconsistent, but a few of us are kind of like waiting on at least some snow, lol

I hear you, but all I can say is the RGEM and GFS have been closer to verifying than the NAMs for mby in western va

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Just now, Abbyme24 said:

Is that Kuchera? Still like a 75% reduction from the last run.

As to be expected. I'd hope to death this is right

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_washdc_6.thumb.png.bb0807b2c12475804a7d8f8690762c15.png

 

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9 minutes ago, Abbyme24 said:

Is that Kuchera? Still like a 75% reduction from the last run.

No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z  Euro had 1-1.2" qpf  from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. 

It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. 

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6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I think the biggest risk is temps in the low lying areas and city as I think the main event might be delayed until mid to late morning.

Short term models delaying it too. Euro suggests 1-2” tops by sun up. Hope I wake up to snow. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z  Euro had 1-1.2" qpf  from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. 

It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. 

I think we get a front thump for an hour or two, and then a 'lull" until the deform band sets up.  

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

I think we get a front thump for an hour or two, and then a 'lull" until the deform band sets up.  

Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. 

31F in petworth

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No, the ealier snow maps were grossly overdone and was pointed out multiple times. 12z  Euro had 1-1.2" qpf  from 6z onward for most of the area. It cut back like 25%. 12z looked overdone between 18-0z with the comma/deform and it has come to earth there. 

It's a fine run for good snows but deck picks concern is legit. UHI areas need a good base down by dawn. 

Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range...

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Kuchera has dc sitting on 3" by 8am. Not too shabby and very important. What's your temp now? I've been below freezing for hours. Not sure how the city is doing. 

32/30.  I've been at 32 for several hours now.  Latest HRRR throws a lot of moisture over us and well west of us.  And we know that no models are yet capturing the secondary banding that will set up in the favored areas.  

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range...

Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. 

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dear...sounds like we'll have to hope the ice/sleet base we have up my way can do the trick. Never a comfortable feeling when changes in timing and such (particularly those that could change the complexion of expected totals) start showing up in the short range...

you're in a much better spot than all of DC metro.  

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5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

32/30.  I've been at 32 for several hours now.  Latest HRRR throws a lot of moisture over us and well west of us.  And we know that no models are yet capturing the secondary banding that will set up in the favored areas.  

Euro is a very broad brush .7-.9 through all of Nova and the corridor from 6z onward. Details on how that happens changes ground truth like you said. 

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Hi folks, first time posting- looking to join a good chat that goes 24/7/365 and I finally found one.

Watching new HRRR come in...it really seems to like a significant band of moderate to heavy snow setting up over BWI and moving eastward across the Bay, and has for the past several runs.  Perhaps this run isn't as great for the immediate DC metro area, but it's pretty good for everyone else.  

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. 

This whole time 8 inches was my high (although the 12z EURO kinda pushed that number to 10", lol) As long as 6-8" is on the table I'll take that...just hope it doesn't get cut back anymore

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26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Expectations are subjective. I was thinking my high bar was 6-8 and that looks good on most guidance and definitely good on the euro. Euro thinking closer to 10" with Kuchera but I think that's high. 4-8" is a pretty safe bet in my yard. LWX 5-10 looks pretty good for now too. 

Really hoping I can get 3.6". Double digits on the year and the rest is gravy. 

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