I dont care anymore....I am starting a storm thread for March 20-21. Got nothing to lose.

[WeathermanB]

NAM continues to dump snow even after nearly a foot and a half of snow has fallen in Delaware.

We just got NAM'd.

[terpsnation]

1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

NAM continues to dump snow even after nearly a foot and a half of snow has fallen in Delaware.

We just got NAM'd.

As long as you don't actually expect to have a foot otg.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 inches QPF

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I'm trying to look at the sounding on Tropical Tidbits but it seems like clicking on the location no longer works. 

Snow map looks amazing, too good to be true, but I'd like to see how the soundings look before getting excited.

You can't click on the 12km map, just the 3km. Try weather.cod.edu.

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

NAM continues to dump snow even after nearly a foot and a half of snow has fallen in Delaware.

We just got NAM'd.

Not really, especially not around Dover. You've got all kinds of temp issues that the raw snow map doesn't account for.

[WeathermanB]

Just now, Fozz said:

Not really, especially not around Dover. You've got all kinds of temp issues that the raw snow map doesn't account for.

Yes toss the 12k snow map in the trash. Stick to the kuchera

[midatlanticweather]

This is a delicate temperature look all the way through. Places even on Kuchera may need to cut those totals in half. The sleet/rain/ super wet snow is not gonna do what we all are excited about. I am all deb downing this.. and also looking at the NAM as the final tell all.. but this is not looking clean in any way. 

I may be in a better spot due to some elevation, but I am not far enough west. Winchester could really be golden! 

 

[aldie 22]

Waiting for Ji's response hoping he has figured out where Leesburg is actually located on a map

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Heck of a NAM. Just what the doctor ordered.

Yeah, just divide your totals by 4 and you should be good.  

[showmethesnow]

Am I the only one who got that T August was joking? And my wife calls me dense.

I guess I will be tracking on the go now. The boss... errr... wife has places to be and items to buy. And of course she needs her pack mule to carry it all for her. So wishing all of us luck on the coming runs.

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Snow maps are okay for a first guess but are no replacement for more in-depth analysis. Big totals on the 12Z NAM through tau 51/54 don't really mean much when warm nose temps aloft are >1-2C, which is something the algorithm specifically has trouble with.

seems like we're gonna need rates with that first wave.  light stuff just won't do it in march with temps into the mid-upper 30s.

[Jandurin]

Yeah, just divide your totals by 4 and you should be good.  

I'd take it and call it a winter

[gymengineer]

10 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Heck of a NAM. Just what the doctor ordered.

Agreed. Verbatim this is a great run for the DC area. If we write off everything before 18Z on Tuesday, there’s *still* almost an inch of precip afterwards with surface temps below freezing the whole time. With all the caveats about NAM etc etc there’s no reason to be negative about this run for you and me.

[wxw]

Hmmmm

[stormtracker]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Am I the only one who got that T August was joking? And my wife calls me dense.

I guess I will be tracking on the go now. The boss... errr... wife has places to be and items to buy. And of course she needs her pack mule to carry it all for her. So wishing all of us luck on the coming runs.

I wasn't sure, lol.

Good luck with the shopping, honey.  

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, just divide your totals by 4 and you should be good.  

I'd take it and call it a winter

We all would.  But I'm going to listen to the met ( @csnavywx )with the deeper analysis than the NAM assuming 10:1 ratios

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Definitely disagree, especially vs 0z.  But the NAM does keep it on the table. 

I was comparing it to 6z so that might be the difference. 

The h5 looks less amplified but that's ok. We don't want it digging down to GA. If it cuts off down there it's a southern VA storm. We want the vort to move east not south and just south of us. Nam was heading that way but that duel vort screwed it up. It was a slight adjustment from reenergizing the stale deform zone that was left over our area. Had that happened it was a big run. It went all wrong after 48 hours imo but that's the nam at range. 

[high risk]

It's worth noting that the bulk of the precip in the NAM 12 falls with surface temps just below freezing for much of the area, even during the daytime.

[terpsnation]

3km has the low just sitting off the coast near OCMD for hours and hours. Temps looking good N&W of the cities.

[poolz1]

3k looking very nice...

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

The 3K looks alright but big time difference between 10:1 snow map and ferrier snow map....I mean anyone expecting more than 2-3" of very wet snow except for higher elevations, needs to go see your weather shrink

[Cobalt]

Just now, high risk said:

It's worth noting that the bulk of the precip in the NAM 12 falls with surface temps just below freezing for much of the area, even during the daytime.

Yeah, that's crazy. What is the latest date DCA or IAD/BWI have never topped freezing?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

It's worth noting that the bulk of the precip in the NAM 12 falls with surface temps just below freezing for much of the area, even during the daytime.

But what about upstairs?

[high risk]

Just now, stormtracker said:

But what about upstairs?

   not sure, but it's probably worth looking at the NAM3 here.    It has a long period of sleet during Tuesday for the 95 corridor before it finally goes over to snow, so there is obviously a warm layer in there somewhere.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, high risk said:

It's worth noting that the bulk of the precip in the NAM 12 falls with surface temps just below freezing for much of the area, even during the daytime.

Yeah, I was just taking a quick look at that...interesting, and pretty impressive for here.  Now I haven't been able to seen the soundings, so don't know the nuances of the thermal  profile other than what's on the 850 maps.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

seems like we're gonna need rates with that first wave.  light stuff just won't do it in march with temps into the mid-upper 30s.

Well, per 3K NAM, DC is snowing with temps around 29-30.

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But what about upstairs?

You can get the profiles on Pivotal on the 3k.. and they are above freezing.. (even out my way) - I see sleety and rain.. nasty.. hoping they cool in subsequent runs and a tad better set up.. otehwrise we will be all shoveling mud puddles again. 

 

[Cobalt]

Kuchera ratios at 21z Tuesday (this panel)

 

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

   not sure, but it's probably worth looking at the NAM3 here.    It has a long period of sleet during Tuesday for the 95 corridor before it finally goes over to snow, so there is obviously a warm layer in there somewhere.

      I'll add now that the forecast soundings as we go through Tuesday have a warm layer that is just barely above freezing, so the NAM3 isn't that far from a much earlier transition to snow.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Ferrier at 59 hr