NYCGreg Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Superstorm93 posted this elsewhere earlier. Great link. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/cyclones/ Does that link suggest that the latest movement of the low is Northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wind blown light snow. I smell a bust here btw. Which way ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Light rain/snow currently. Hoping for 3-5” here. I think the city sees an inch or two. East of the William Floyd Parkway should have totals approaching a foot-the NAM has some very impressive banding there and potentially west to Rte 110. I think the city sees 2-4 and maybe more if it trends more west tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I love a good winter storm just as much as the next person but I think we have alot of wishful thinking/hoping going on right now that this will turn into something bigger for more of the subforum. Honestly, I am getting a bit tired of these snowstorms in March, next winter lets get back to having winter storms from Mid December thru Mid February and we will be back in business. it's too bad this -NAO block trapped a crappy airmass instead of an arctic one-we would have had a far different outcome on these 3 storms...lots wasted to white rain or plain rain with the marginal airmass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: it's too bad this -NAO block trapped a crappy airmass instead of an arctic one-we would have had a far different outcome on these 3 storms...lots wasted to white rain or plain rain with the marginal airmass in place. Could have been a special march. As it is, it’s pretty impressive given the month it’s following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said: Which way ? The bad way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 It’s snowing on the boardwalk in Ocean City, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 32 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is my thinking 7-14" west of the GWB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The bad way. That link you shared, it has the storm moving NNW the past hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: That link you shared, it has the storm moving NW currently. Yep I see. Gotta give people some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wind blown light snow. I smell a bust here btw. 2-4" or 3-5" forecast with marginal temps in mid march equals zero. No bust...just assume wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Yep I see. Gotta give people some hope. Yeah... I know I keep saying this, and going against John... well... yeah. However, there is still a good shot at this coming West a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: 2-4" or 3-5" forecast with marginal temps in mid march equals zero. No bust...just assume wet snow. 2-4 would be mainly wet roads. You need to get near an inch an hour band to get rates to beat the warm pavement given the lack of true cold the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yep I see. Gotta give people some hope. Tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: 2-4" or 3-5" forecast with marginal temps in mid march equals zero. No bust...just assume wet snow. Still cool to take a walk in, and you don't have to shovel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Rtd208 said: Tease. I wouldn't be shocked if this busted in a good way how the models have been this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Wind blown snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Raining here in Point Pleasant Beach. But howling outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: I was more making a point about how these "bust" statements can change dramatically in a rather short distance. These last two storms were devastating for so many areas on so many levels that just because someone didn't get a whopper of a snowstorm doesn't mean that it didn't happen really close to them. Just because the surface melt rate is slower doesn't mean it's not also melting from underneath. Ding ding, warm ground will do it every time. During the first storm on 3/2 at the height of the storm I had nearly a foot on the ground and by the time it stopped snowing we were down to ~8" so that's what I recorded. We lost nearly everything before the next storm and I had 16-18" at one point but before it ended was at 14" and was down to 12" a little after sunrise (3 hours after ending) when I got out to measure again so that's what got recorded. In each of these the lowest layer was pure slush with water running under the snow helping the snow to compact and melt out faster than it was replaced. The snow on the surface accumulated easily and quickly but melted out from underneath almost as quickly at the same time thereby limiting totals in a very noticeable way. You are suppose to record your maximum depth from the storm for that day. BY NOAA rules you should have recorded 12 inches, but it's your house you can record what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, sferic said: JM, Is this a case if you drove 10 miles North from where you live in LB there would be more snow? I doubt it. It comes to where the western heavy snow band ends up. I could see it getting to around the Sagtikos. West of there this won’t be a big deal. I could even see it busting low because of subsidence here. Warm surface temps won’t help though, but a lot of this will be at night so that’ll be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 SREF are a general 3-6 for NYC Boston sees 20 inches on the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 My final guess for this not coming storm: Central Park 3.7 inches LGA 4.1 inches JFK 5.2 inches Long Beach 6.0 inches Massepequa 7.2 inches Hauppague : 8.4 inches Islip : 10.4 inches Newark: 4.7 inches White Plains 4 Inches Morristown NJ 2.8 inches Middletown NY 3.4 inches Boston 11.7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: SREF are a general 3-6 for NYC Boston sees 20 inches on the SREF Slight bump in QPF at JFK from .56 to .64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: SREF are a general 3-6 for NYC Boston sees 20 inches on the SREF They always seem to be high on amounts. I can't trust them anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 hours ago, RU848789 said: Doubtful. Yes, the bottom will always look slushy, since it's a mix of melted snow and snow prior to accumulations beginning, but once the ground is in equilibrium with the snow layer, it's also at 32F, unless you're talking about a city surface above a heat source (like in NYC, where that does make a big difference); by late winter, most of the ground a foot or two or more (depending on where one lives) below the first few inches (if it was warm lately) is frozen (the frost layer), so there is no heat source to melt the snow that starts accumulating. When surface snow melts, it can form rivulets that can meander through the snowpack to the bottom of it, making it appear as if the snow at the bottom is melting. I assure you it's not, unless you're in Manhattan with a heat source below the surface. By far the biggest factor in snow amounts decreasing after a storm is simple compaction, even if temps are at or below 32F, but especially if just above 32F: I measure 10-25% compaction after almost every storm within several hours after the snow stops. The "network" of snowflakes and agglomerated snowflakes have a hard time sustaining the bulk density with which they initially layer when they fall - with some surface melting, the agglomerates break down and compact (it's like wet leaves vs. dry leaves). The ground isn't frozen at any depth and hasn't been for about 3-4 weeks depending on exposure and soil composition. The warmth just radiates out from it even hours after a storm starts and in the case of the last storm it continued right through the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, gravitylover said: The ground isn't frozen at any depth and hasn't been for about 3-4 weeks depending on exposure and soil composition. The warmth just radiates out from it even hours after a storm starts and in the case of the last storm it continued right through the storm. it's amazing how some continue to over look this fact. It's a big reason why latest storms have been a let down to many. Unless it's puking snow, alot of it gets wasted. (and even last week, we got 10 inches here in about 3-4 hrs and within hours it had compacted and melted to about 6 or 7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: My final guess for this not coming storm: Central Park 3.7 inches LGA 4.1 inches JFK 5.2 inches Long Beach 6.0 inches Massepequa 7.2 inches Hauppague : 8.4 inches Islip : 10.4 inches Newark: 4.7 inches White Plains 4 Inches Morristown NJ 2.8 inches Middletown NY 3.4 inches Boston 11.7 inches All seem reasonable at this time. I might add that JFK might see 5.2 but will record 2.8. , they have been horrible this year, LGA not much better. Surprisingly the Conservancy is the most accurate NYC station this year measuring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 35 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: If John is saying that I believe it, he is an excellent meteorologist IMO. He saw the Jan 2015 bust coming early on for those of us west of the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: it's amazing how some continue to over look this fact. It's a big reason why latest storms have been a let down to many. Unless it's puking snow, alot of it gets wasted. (and even last week, we got 10 inches here in about 3-4 hrs and within hours it had compacted and melted to about 6 or 7) I still have snow cover lol. Ground has been covered in snow for a week and it was 27 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, sferic said: My final guess for this not coming storm: Central Park 3.7 inches LGA 4.1 inches JFK 5.2 inches Long Beach 6.0 inches Massepequa 7.2 inches Hauppague : 8.4 inches Islip : 10.4 inches Newark: 4.7 inches White Plains 4 Inches Morristown NJ 2.8 inches Middletown NY 3.4 inches Boston 11.7 inches I think that’s on the high side for west of Suffolk but hopefully you’re right. Boston will also probably see 15”+, maybe 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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