March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[Damage In Tolland]

Surface low track doesn’t matter. Look how far west 700 is. There’s all your heavy snow bands 

[JBinStoughton]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

Maybe the phasing isn't being modeled correct because the stregnth of the southern stream is too much?

Seems like people are saying it *won’t* phase properly because of that. The models are maybe seeing what our weenie eyes won’t allow lol. 

[Hoth]

Some pretty nice FGEN in central-western CT there. Perhaps the confluence between the PV anomalies lending an assist?

[TalcottWx]

Guess what model still sucks? The gfs

[MarkO]

Nearly every model seems to have that trailing 700mb vort off the Georgia coast tugging it out to sea and preventing the surface low from really winding up near the benchmark. I somehow find that hard to believe for a bombing low in that vicinity, or is this not that unusual?

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Surface low track doesn’t matter. Look how far west 700 is. There’s all your heavy snow bands 

Congrats Peon on Narry Bay on the GFS

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Guess what model still sucks? The gfs

the ggem

holy ridiculousness

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Where?

Over us. Hopefully we are in the CCB, because the area in between may be a slight subby hole.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Over us. Hopefully we are in the CCB, because the area in between may be a slight subby hole.

Probably over Kevin 

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Guess what model still sucks? The gfs

I really thought it was gonna tuck in more for a second there. Oh well. We wait until 1:45.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Over us. Hopefully we are in the CCB, because the area in between may be a slight subby hole.

Boxing Day 2

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I really thought it was gonna tuck in more for a second there. Oh well. We wait until 1:45.

I have no idea I'm stuffing my face at castle island 

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Over us. Hopefully we are in the CCB, because the area in between may be a slight subby hole.

Somewhere Ray just threw a keyboard across the room. 

[wxsniss]

"Skylar"... wtf

The media's naming each system fits this selfie generation

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

I have no idea I'm stuffing my face at castle island 

Sullivan's?

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Over us. Hopefully we are in the CCB, because the area in between may be a slight subby hole.

CJ setup?

[WintersComing]

Herpes looks a bit more NW

[#NoPoles]

9 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Nearly every model seems to have that trailing 700mb vort off the Georgia coast tugging it out to sea and preventing the surface low from really winding up near the benchmark. I somehow find that hard to believe for a bombing low in that vicinity, or is this not that unusual?

I would ask Tip. In his earlier posts he was trying to figure out why there isn't a phase. 

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

P type does not appear to be an issue even on the Cape for most of the run

[MarkO]

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ007&warncounty=MAC009&firewxzone=MAZ007&local_place1=Wenham MA&product1=Blizzard+Warning&lat=42.6&lon=-70.8833

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ007&warncounty=MAC009&firewxzone=MAZ007&local_place1=Wenham MA&product1=Blizzard+Warning&lat=42.6&lon=-70.8833

they earned it

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Over us. Hopefully we are in the CCB, because the area in between may be a slight subby hole.

I commented earlier on a relative sub zone shown over us on the 12k/3k NAMs... even still we break 10", just harder to reach 14-18" amounts to the west and southeast

[HoarfrostHubb]

Blizzard warnings hoisted

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1159 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018


MAZ007-018-019-021>023-130000-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.W.0007.180313T0300Z-180314T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0002.180313T0300Z-180314T0000Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Brockton, Plymouth,
Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, and Vineyard Haven
1159 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Winds gusting as high as 65
  mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant
  drifting of the snow is likely. Total snow accumulations of 10
  to 18 inches with localized 20 inch amounts possible.

* WHERE...Coastal Essex County, Plymouth County, Cape Cod and
  Marthas Vineyard.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very dangerous with 1 to 3
  inch per hour snowfall rates at times and significantly impact
  the morning commute. The Tuesday afternoon commute is also
  expected to be impacted. Wet snow and strong winds will result
  in some power outages and tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you.  If you get
stranded, stay with your vehicle.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Guess what model still sucks? The gfs

 According to this forum every model sucks and even the euro " ain't what it used to be".  

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CJ setup?

I don't think so. Not a drastic temp contrast and everything else will override any exhaust from that.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 According to this forum every model sucks and even the euro " ain't what it used to be".  

 

NOGAPS!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It’s been really nice watching this from the outside, never invested. Stress free. Now I know what PF felt like from 2010-2016. 

The deform band looks pretty good for CCT though, on most guidance, with the slight nw ticks. Near the CF, however, should see many 20 spots. Congrats Taunton to Weymouth, 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't think so. Not a drastic temp contrast and everything else will override any exhaust from that.

No, I mean CCB confined to those areas.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been really nice watching this from the outside, never invested. Stress free. Now I know what PF felt like from 2010-2016. 

The deform band looks pretty good for CCT though, on most guidance, with the slight nw ticks. Near the CF, however, should see many 20 spots. Congrats Taunton to Weymouth, 

It's a much easier pill to swallow when you've just put up a double digit snow.

[Chrisrotary12]

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Corn on the cobb or corn in the crap? We shall see.

That's the same thing (eventually) right?  Or is that the joke?