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Typhoon Tip

March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would honestly expect this.

 

Latest.png

Living on the edge....go big or go home I guess....I expect localized higher totals out this way....the western banding will perform 

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Meant to fil it in in NW VT, but I just didn't have the chance too I was rushing

Your forecast for CT is on the higher end of most for sure, I wouldn't worry about busting low, but then again...

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22 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I figured if any storm to go big on it is this one

I'll consider the forecast a win if anyone gets 40"+

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3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

No worries, it's below freezing about 1000' up. You can actually see the snow. It's coming!

I'm actually talking about the Cape and Islands, not really us at all.  We will do well, I think.  Our ratios won't be huge but will make up some of the difference in the end.

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

A big weenie salute to everyone still on line now 

Yeah... let's relish this. The season's big one incoming. And trending better the closer we get. This is it, the thrill that keeps us coming back.

Wish there was more we could nowcast... timing delay? Surface low location? Diving northern stream? Prolonged duration? I haven't found an obvious parameter to correlate with impact on the various model runs tonight, probably because the stream interaction later this morning is so complex. But regardless, the unambiguous net result in the model output is getting better and better. 

Gonna force myself to recharge a few hours to enjoy the fireworks. Get some rest folks, gonna be a wild day tomorrow.

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The fgen band already overperforming as it is, if the elevated isothermal layer can cool just like a degree more, someone in SE MA is guaranteed 30" with prolonged 3-4/hr rates. Other guarantee is someone just W of this mega-band, and east of some western edge banding, is getting screwed.

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wiz, that frontogenesis band will give someone feet of snow, once it pivots in it stalls right along the I95 corridor and someone from PVD to BOS and southeast will see totals near 40"

You have lost your mind.  Never in my life have I seen a poster talk SO CONFIDENTLY on and on again and again about 40".  Not even in the Biggest Daddy's of this century in 2005, 2013, 2015.  

 

And this storm AIN'T Those.  

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12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah... let's relish this. The season's big one incoming. And trending better the closer we get. This is it, the thrill that keeps us coming back.

Wish there was more we could nowcast... timing delay? Surface low location? Diving northern stream? Prolonged duration? I haven't found an obvious parameter to correlate with impact on the various model runs tonight, probably because the stream interaction later this morning is so complex. But regardless, the unambiguous net result in the model output is getting better and better. 

Gonna force myself to recharge a few hours to enjoy the fireworks. Get some rest folks, gonna be a wild day tomorrow.

We bump up

ecmwf_acc_precip_neng_78.png

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3 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

You have lost your mind.  Never in my life have I seen a poster talk SO CONFIDENTLY on and on again and again about 40".  Not even in the Biggest Daddy's of this century in 2005, 2013, 2015.  

 

And this storm AIN'T Those.  

Could happen....lots of surprises 

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4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I'm actually talking about the Cape and Islands, not really us at all.  We will do well, I think.  Our ratios won't be huge but will make up some of the difference in the end.

I'm tired.... but agreed. Yeah I don't see James getting 40" but this is one for the books for him. Kids on the cape won't have school the rest of the week. One to remember.

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4 minutes ago, OKpowdah said:

The fgen band already overperforming as it is, if the elevated isothermal layer can cool just like a degree more, someone in SE MA is guaranteed 30" with prolonged 3-4/hr rates. Other guarantee is someone just W of this mega-band, and east of some western edge banding, is getting screwed.

I think the screw zone will be outside of I 495.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the screw zone will be outside of I 495.

I'm a candidate.

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40" is virtually impossible. 27" maybe jack, 18-24" over a widespread area of SE MA seems more in-line with QPF and ratio's.

I'm up...could attribute to being a full blown weenie living vicariously through the posts.
Doctor today sliced and diced my left foot the pain just throbbing so unable to sleep. Not nice getting old... LOL.

Storm is just exploding, nirvana for a morning in March. Long Live Winter!

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