March 13th ... west Atlantic bombogenesis type low clipping SE New England, more certain ...may be expanding inland

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said:

Wow the JMA!

[wxsniss]

23 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it just me or is the northern stream vort a lot further southwest of where it's modeled to be?

FWIW, most recent RAP models have the northern stream vort exactly the same over Wisconsin/Michigan/Iowa as other model guidance... (i.e. further northeast of where it might seem on water vapor)

[TalcottWx]

Euro at 2pm should be ILLEGAL.

[CoastalWx]

SPC HREF is pretty bullish.

[wxsniss]

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Just looking at the RAP for early fun. Good lord. 3 feet E MA (out of its' range)

Yeah 12z RAP shows how it's done for entertainment in clown range... well-timed interaction of n/s streams and this closes and reopens multiple times with influx of n stream prolonging impacts on SNE

[wxeyeNH]

35 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The 12z Herpes is a big hit too. Better than 6z, which has been a running theme

Herpes?

[TalcottWx]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Yeah 12z RAP shows how it's done for entertainment in clown range... well-timed interaction of n/s streams and this closes and reopens multiple times with influx of n stream prolonging impacts on SNE

As we've preached before, definitely fine to look at these runs from here on out. 

No one should be looking at an individual run. Track the trend of the run as it corrects to a solution. You'll get a great handle on what's coming between the HRRR and RAP if you follow it correctly.

[ajisai]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Herpes?

it's a meso model  

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Herpes?

It's an infection you may get down there, but that's not important right now.

It's the hi-res RGEM. 

[TalcottWx]

Looks like 6z BTV WRF jackpots Plymouth, Taunton, Falmouth, Brockton, Canal areas.

[wxsniss]

12z UK looks almost dead on with 0z in terms of SLP track, slightly deeper, cut qpf slightly in far west zones

[wxeyeNH]

Just now, DomNH said:

It's an infection you may get down there, but that's not important right now.

It's the hi-res RGEM. 

Thanks guys! 

 Great stuff today.  Good friends of ours in a group of 10 people are all heading to Guatemala via MIA at 730am out of Logan on Wed AM.  They are all texting me asking if they will get out.  Hum.  The storm will be basically over, diminishing winds with ongoing cleanup. I would guess the equipment would have to already be on the ground from the evening before for a departure that early.  I gave them a 75% chance of this working out...

[weatherbear5]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle anyone?

Looks very similar to 00z to me on meteocenter in terms of track... in terms of precipitation, the most important panel ( hour 24) is from yesterday's 12z run

[wx2fish]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

SPC HREF is pretty bullish.

They went wild 

[weathafella]

Thanks for uncle guys.    Looks like it’s ok.

[J Paul Gordon]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow the JMA!

Looks like we all get slammed, especially when you consider higher ratios inland. I guess "in my own little corner of my own little world I can pretend whatever I want to be". Heard that song a million times when my daughter was little. She was a Cinderella addict. In this case it applies to the hopes I put in whatever model shows the most extreme performance.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

They went wild 

Link?

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Thanks guys! 

 Great stuff today.  Good friends of ours in a group of 10 people are all heading to Guatemala via MIA at 730am out of Logan on Wed AM.  They are all texting me asking if they will get out.  Hum.  The storm will be basically over, diminishing winds with ongoing cleanup. I would guess the equipment would have to already be on the ground from the evening before for a departure that early.  I gave them a 75% chance of this working out...

Big delay I bet because of equipment but models are starting to signal off and on light snow after everything moves out so maybe take that into consideration?  My wife has to go to DC Wednesday at 2-Probably will not be impacted given the number of flights BOS-DCA.

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Link?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

[CoastalWx]

HREF has been decent this year.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Link?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/index.php?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne&rd=20180312&rt=1200

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thanks for uncle guys.    Looks like it’s ok.

Slp Placement is odd

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

12z UK looks almost dead on with 0z in terms of SLP track, slightly deeper, cut qpf slightly in far west zones

The deeper and more wound up this ends up probably means a slight cut in QPF in WNE as precip shield tightens?

[Damage In Tolland]

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The deeper and more wound up this ends up probably means a slight cut in QPF in WNE as precip shield tightens?

You will do anything that you can do to lower your own expectations. It’s really cuteYou will do anything that you can do to lower your own expectations. It’s really cute

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 I'll watch trends today in the meso's but I'll go with 4-6" here.  Need 6" to climb over my seasonal average.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shocking 

Cold airmass cape cod gets ccb meat

Mos ftl On thermals

And yes there will be a band nw..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks...looks like about 16" here.

Reasonable.

[weathafella]

3 feet for the cape on that

[DomNH]

What is the HREF? SREF replacement?