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2018 Short to Medium Range Severe Thread


tornadohunter
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I'm curious to see how many EF-0 (or maybe 1) tornadoes get confirmed in the Toledo and Detroit area.  Not sure I've quite seen anything like that on radar last night.  There was extremely weak instability, and low-level shear honestly wasn't great, but there was a ton of vorticity as that cell was pretty much riding the low pressure, so probably some vorticity stretching...but that whole storm was broadly rotating with small, generally brief, but at times strong enough to possibly produce rotations continuously showing up on the TDTW terminal radar with the cell. 

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9 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm curious to see how many EF-0 (or maybe 1) tornadoes get confirmed in the Toledo and Detroit area.  Not sure I've quite seen anything like that on radar last night.  There was extremely weak instability, and low-level shear honestly wasn't great, but there was a ton of vorticity as that cell was pretty much riding the low pressure, so probably some vorticity stretching...but that whole storm was broadly rotating with small, generally brief, but at times strong enough to possibly produce rotations continuously showing up on the TDTW terminal radar with the cell. 

At least one so far in DTX's CWA

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/taylortornado_180801

I was on Eureka coming from the west and saw the same power flashes but my view was obscured by trees plus I was dealing with torrential downpours, but yeah ended up being right behind the tornado by about a mile. Saw that same fire as well it was at the corner of Pardee and Eureka near Southland Mall.
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5 hours ago, CoachLB said:

image.jpeg

A little surprised on that as there was very tight rotation on the TDAY radar at a low elevation on that cell ILN warned...also some pics of a funnel very close to the ground...but perhaps it was in a rural enough area that nothing was damaged or it somehow was just barely not on the ground. 

41 minutes ago, Stebo said:

At least one so far in DTX's CWA

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/taylortornado_180801

I was on Eureka coming from the west and saw the same power flashes but my view was obscured by trees plus I was dealing with torrential downpours, but yeah ended up being right behind the tornado by about a mile. Saw that same fire as well it was at the corner of Pardee and Eureka near Southland Mall.

Wow, pretty close video. CLE also confirmed an EF-0 in Lucas County, OH. 

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4 minutes ago, OHweather said:

A little surprised on that as there was very tight rotation on the TDAY radar at a low elevation on that cell ILN warned...also some pics of a funnel very close to the ground...but perhaps it was in a rural enough area that nothing was damaged or it somehow was just barely not on the ground. 

Wow, pretty close video. CLE also confirmed an EF-0 in Lucas County, OH. 

Yeah they would have been at Telegraph so less than 1/4 mile away from it.

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13 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm curious to see how many EF-0 (or maybe 1) tornadoes get confirmed in the Toledo and Detroit area.  Not sure I've quite seen anything like that on radar last night.  There was extremely weak instability, and low-level shear honestly wasn't great, but there was a ton of vorticity as that cell was pretty much riding the low pressure, so probably some vorticity stretching...but that whole storm was broadly rotating with small, generally brief, but at times strong enough to possibly produce rotations continuously showing up on the TDTW terminal radar with the cell. 

NWS STORM SURVEY INDICATED A WEAK EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR OREGON OHIO ON THE EVENING OF JULY 31ST AND TRACKED NORTH TO NEAR POINT PLACE BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE 5 (CLE).

Point Place is the northeastern tip of Toledo

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Appears Cincy had a pretty good microburst.

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 546 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0528 PM TSTM WND GST KLUK LUNKEN AIRPORT 39.10N 84.42W 08/04/2018 M76 MPH HAMILTON OH ASOS

 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.UPDATE...
1217 PM CDT

Overnight convection and debris cloudiness is generally
dissipating and this trend is largely expected to continue as we
head into the afternoon hours. The composite outflow/cold front
has been pushed south and while it is somewhat ill-defined,
appears to extend from west central IL across our southern CWA
into northern Indiana. There are some modest pressure falls over
eastern IA into northwest IL late this morning, but those falls
are likely more the result of the meso-high moving east more so
than a response to the approaching shortwave trough, thus look to
be rather transient.

Speaking of said shortwave, GOES-16 differential water vapor RGB
late this morning shows a fairly well defined shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern IA. This shortwave should continue
eastward and likely provide some large scale ascent across the
area this afternoon. The big question at this point is where the
surface boundary will end up this afternoon.

Given trends in visible satellite imagery, would expect the
boundary to lift/mix northward some this afternoon. Certainly the
southern half of the CWA stands the best chance of making it into
the warm sector and destabilizing, while northern CWA looks like
cloudiness and easterly winds should prevent significant
destabilization. As often seems to be the case, the demarcation
line roughly looks to set up in the vicinity of I-80 later this
afternoon around the expected time of convective initiation.

The farther south placement of the boundary should result in a bit
more of a disconnect between the stronger flow aloft/better shear
and the stronger instability and expected sfc based storm
development. Despite this disconnect, glancing blow from the
stronger flow aloft is progged to support 0-6km bulk shear values
of 25-30kt in the warm sector. Certainly not overly impressive,
but should be enough given moderate-strongly unstable conditions
to support a severe risk from what looks to be primarily a
multicellular convective mode. In time, there should be a tendency
for storms to evolve into short line segments, any which that
become perpendicular to the mean westerly flow could produce some
localized swaths of damaging winds. The 1630 UTC SWODY1 outlook
appears to nicely depict the greatest threat area, which would be
within the SLGT risk.

Have updated pops/wx to focus highest pops southern CWA this
afternoon/early evening. Its possible that northern portions of
the CWA could end missing out on getting significant (or possible
much of any) rain from this system. Also, lower high temps a bit
northern CWA to account for the greater cloud cover and easterly
winds. Updated grids have been sent and forecast text products
will be out momentarily.

- Izzi
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6 minutes ago, Knightking2018 said:

  The Alonsa, Manitoba tornado has been rated as an EF4. Its appearance reminds me of the Elie, Manitoba F5 tornado but the Alonsa tornado was wider than the Elie tornado. 

It was a historic Canadian tornado, one of two violent tornadoes this decade in my country. It might be the only EF4+ to be official for the 2010s so far. It had good velocity at the base and was up there for best looking in recent times. If I'd have seen that I'd be set.

In one of the videos that mesocyclone or structure around the twister was jaw-dropping. I've never seen anything like it. Manitoba is getting all the gems here. I remember 2015's insanity.

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10 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

It was a historic Canadian tornado, one of two violent tornadoes this decade in my country. It might be the only EF4+ to be official for the 2010s so far. It had good velocity at the base and was up there for best looking in recent times. If I'd have seen that I'd be set.

In one of the videos that mesocyclone or structure around the twister was jaw-dropping. I've never seen anything like it. Manitoba is getting all the gems here. I remember 2015's insanity.

  The Elie F5 tornado did its most intense damage when it was like 40 yards wide. It was roping out basically. Did the Alonsa tornado do that as well when it did its most intense damage? Elie got up to 330 yards wide and the Alonsa tornado got up to a half-mile wide.

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On 8/1/2018 at 4:49 PM, Stebo said:

At least one so far in DTX's CWA

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/taylortornado_180801

I was on Eureka coming from the west and saw the same power flashes but my view was obscured by trees plus I was dealing with torrential downpours, but yeah ended up being right behind the tornado by about a mile. Saw that same fire as well it was at the corner of Pardee and Eureka near Southland Mall.

 I can't believe I forgot to comment on this last week. My phone woke me up at 1:00 a.m. with the tornado warning alert. Checking radar it appeared that the storm with just miss me.  So what should I do? I went outside of course. I'm guessing that's what the infamous eye of the hurricane feels like. When I went outside it was so calm. No rain falling no rustling of trees just dead calm. Sirens in the distance and slow chirping of crickets. There was a breeze prior to and after the calm but not an ounce of breeze at that time. I could see clouds moving in the sky but there was zero wind. I didnt realize at the time but just 3 miles to my north at that moment 70mph winds were occurring.  I live less than 5 miles from where that tornado was reported. In the end that night of storms dropped only 1.20" of rain in wind out with 3.00" just 7 miles West at DTW.

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If I'm not mistaken, there wasn't a tornado warning on this storm which was only about 15 miles from radar.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
219 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR AUGUST 6, 2018 TORNADO EVENT...

.WARSAW INDIANA TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  4.1 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   50 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE: AUG 6 2018 
START TIME: 827 PM EDT 
START LOCATION: 1.1 MILE NORTHEAST DOWNTOWN WARSAW 
START LAT/LON: 41.2449N / -85.8290W

END DATE:               AUG 6 2018
END TIME:               834 PM EDT
END LOCATION:           5.2 MILES EAST WARSAW
END_LAT/LON:            41.2404N / -85.7514W

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA
HAS CONFIRMED THAT A LOW END EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN WARSAW 
JUST SOUTHEAST OF PIKE LAKE AROUND 827 PM EDT AND THEN TRACKED 
RAPIDLY EASTWARD, LIFTING AROUND 834 PM EDT 5.2 MILES EAST OF 
DOWNTOWN WARSAW.

NUMEROUS TREES WERE DAMAGED INCLUDING UPROOTED TREES, SNAPPED
TRUNKS AND TOPPING. SEVERAL HOMES AND CARS WERE IMPACTED BY TREE 
DEBRIS. IN ADDITION SEVERAL POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED. MINOR 
ROOFING AND SIDING DAMAGE OCCURRED TO SOME HOMES AS WELL.

THE TORNADO OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROADER WIND DAMAGE
SWATH OF UP TO 250 YARDS. DAMAGE HERE WAS MUCH MORE SPORADIC WITH
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60-65 MPH.
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