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March Mid/Long Range Disco 3


WxUSAF

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6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I may be wrong but those late December runs weren’t really focused on one threat. This is obviously keying on one specific SV.

I would love the snow totals to start looking like your profile image. That would be incredible.   What storm was that by the way?  Wow! 

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2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

I'd also rather see a legit storm rather than an overrunning event. I'm a bit concerned about that, but not upset with where all the precip is sitting. Pretty confident it would end up coming north.

overrunning can be very legit here.  it's one of our more productive setups.

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Things are bound to change...or not...but this is pretty good agreement between the 2 major globals.  EPS has the same cluster of tucked lows as the gefs.

Lets let this this slowly juice up and amp up over the next few days of model runs...no big jumps...

5a9de58fcfa66_eps_slp_lows_east_28(1).thumb.png.641a5714140112796015020cdc1ccb05.png

 

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17 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Things are bound to change...or not...but this is pretty good agreement between the 2 major globals.  EPS has the same cluster of tucked lows as the gefs.

Lets let this this slowly juice up and amp up over the next few days of model runs...no big jumps...

 

 

You have to love where things stand with the ensembles of the Canadian, US, and Euro models.  Great agreement being 6 days out.  

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

You have to love where things stand with the ensembles of the Canadian, US, and Euro models.  Great agreement being 6 days out.  

yeah.. fast forward 3 days and we will be cut out of the picture..  just the way this winter has gone.  

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You have to love where things stand with the ensembles of the Canadian, US, and Euro models.  Great agreement being 6 days out.  

We are right in that window (6 days out) where the big ones are sniffed out.  Very encouraging to have such good agreement...

I agree with PSU, sub 980 looping just off the coast or bust...Bring it home right or just get on with spring!

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

We are right in that window (6 days out) where the big ones are sniffed out.  Very encouraging to have such good agreement...

I agree with PSU, sub 980 looping just off the coast or bust...Bring it home right or just get on with spring!

Even a progressive track would work if we get in the CCB shield. 2" QPF is unlikely unless there is a stall but 1-1.5" is certainly possible. 

The good thing is ALL globals and ens have trended colder in the mid levels leading in. That's a big deal at this lead. Have some room to spare @ 850 is almost a requirement in mid March.  

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But for real yall..think about it...if the 0z shows a flush hit now...expectations will be set..and every single run after that will be the dreaded "step back" blah blah blah.  Let's do this the right way...let's build up to it instead of "stepping back".  Here's to a close miss to the south tonight.  Just keep it close until say Wednesday night or even Thursday 12z

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But for real yall..think about it...if the 0z shows a flush hit now...expectations will be set..and every single run after that will be the dreaded "step back" blah blah blah.  Let's do this the right way...let's build up to it instead of "stepping back".  Here's to a close miss to the south tonight.  Just keep it close until say Wednesday night or even Thursday 12z

And then let March climo setup that North trend.

We have Daylight Savings Time, March Madness Selection Sunday, and if it really slows down the Superstorm's 25th anniversary is on Monday.  Plenty of time to think of names if this one finally goes through for us.

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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

But for real yall..think about it...if the 0z shows a flush hit now...expectations will be set..and every single run after that will be the dreaded "step back" blah blah blah.  Let's do this the right way...let's build up to it instead of "stepping back".  Here's to a close miss to the south tonight.  Just keep it close until say Wednesday night or even Thursday 12z

weve already had our flush hit at 6z....now we just need improvements to get back to that level

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

We know how it worked for us when we were very close or even in the bullseye in March 13-14 2017. March climo also probably favors a shift north anyways. 

2006 had a Major -NAO similar to this in March and everything was suppressed-no north trend that month

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

2006 had a Major -NAO similar to this in March and everything was suppressed-no north trend that month

Interesting. Only time I can recall a continuous shift south up to game time was with a -EPO dominated pattern (early March 2014). Certainly something of note

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18 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

We know how it worked for us when we were very close or even in the bullseye in March 13-14 2017. March climo also probably favors a shift north anyways. 

That was a super depressing storm.  The football got pulled out 24 hours away.  But we didn’t have a -NAO or any kind of blocking, if I remember correctly.  

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