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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Hmmm, that looks much farther west than the GFS and maybe even the 18z NAM. That would seem to bring that big thump right to our doorstep. Wish we could get it just a tad farther south.

The QPF moved east from 12z. It's actually a worse run but it's also not good practice to use ensembles at such short leads. The euro/gfs combo most likely has it pretty well figured out at this point imho. And like millville said, the meso banding features are probably the only wildcards. With that being said, I expect little if any accums in my yard. Not enough heavy precip and temps are way too warm leading in. Might get some SnowTV though. That would be a win I guess. 

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2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Look how much closer to the coast the ensembles develop the low!

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_8.png

it dosent matter how far west the low develops...i dont care if it developed it @Bob Chill back yard..all that matters is where it is when it explodes and not one model has it close to doing that near us

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

it dosent matter how far west the low develops...i dont care if it developed it @Bob Chill back yard..all that matters is where it is when it explodes and not one model has it close to doing that near us

West helps a bit but south is what would really help, as it would give it more time to explode before rolling past us.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

West helps a bit but south is what would really help, as it would give it more time to explode before rolling past us.

yep...south helps the most...it takes time for these lows to blow up...just dont have enough time if they are not mature at OBX

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

it dosent matter how far west the low develops...i dont care if it developed it @Bob Chill back yard..all that matters is where it is when it explodes and not one model has it close to doing that near us

You remember the miller b in feb 1996 that was supposed to hit NJ and the night before it blew up right over us instead?

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You remember the miller b in feb 1996 that was supposed to hit NJ and the night before it blew up right over us instead?

i didnt know anything about weather back then except that it snowed alot more in 96 than i was used to seeing lol. that was more a wes junker storm right? but i think i got 10-12

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The minute we knew the evolution of this as a Miller B the end result could be guessed with good certainty. The rest of this is just model noise and teasing.

The NAM through 36 illustrates your point perfectly 

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I have optimism regarding this one, it may not be just a coastal transfer but perhaps the ongoing retrograde blocking pattern will cause the e IA low to maintain a center to the coast with a southward jog tomorrow. This might open the door for 2-4" snowfalls in this region. Not highly confident but don't be surprised if this overperforms. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

3k looks very good so far for HoCo and points NE. Nobody should really look at the 12k. 3k is far superior.

Well it doesn’t crank the CCB like 18z but keeps precip going over MD for awhile. So going to be lower totals for sure. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Well it doesn’t crank the CCB like 18z but keeps precip going over MD for awhile. So going to be lower totals for sure. 

Still not half bad actually. Looks a little more realistic with expectations. In fact, this run is a carbon copy of what Mount Holly is forecasting for their CWA lol

 

5a9dff84d18af_snowfall0306183kmNAM0z.thumb.PNG.f082efd1c92796962123be94e041158a.PNG

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Still not half bad actually. Looks a little more realistic with expectations. In fact, this run is a carbon copy of what Mount Holly is forecasting for their CWA lol

 

5a9dff84d18af_snowfall0306183kmNAM0z.thumb.PNG.f082efd1c92796962123be94e041158a.PNG

Does the D.C. stuff accumulate with the first wave before the coastal develops on the 3km NAM?

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3K is a bit more east and it also seems to delay the development of the CCB a tad and also push it farther north and west, which is a bit odd since the low appears a bit more east. Maybe a hiccup, or maybe it's starting to fall in line with the GFS and Euro. Either way, it's essentially no accumulations for us with such light rates and that's got to be disappointing for the Philly area.

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