Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even over ORH county.....not a wide area over 12".

The qpf max in E MA is a bit east of ORH county on this run.

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Gfs wont budge

 

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

GFS is SE

??? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stash said:

Yikes, big cutback over ALY area from KALB on north where they currently have 12-18 forecasted.  

They were wrong....AWT(10)

[WintersComing]

GFS colder as welll

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The qpf max in E MA is a bit east of ORH county on this run.

Cool.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

 

??? 

Think he means with the depiction of the R/S line. 

[TalcottWx]

That's snow right into BOS. Sick.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Flips most of EMA Boston north to heavy snow by hr 36 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, PeabodyFlood said:

Think he means with the depiction of the R/S line. 

Does anyone use the GFS to determine the rain/snow line in this sort of event?  I'd rather use the NAM...

[weathafella]

Euro appears to be re-asserting its superiority ths event.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

 

??? 

Wont budge with the warmth.... Stillb tries to rain on us... And yes i know the gfs runs warm for the most part just hate seeing it

[WintersComing]

Ryan I see you are bumping up.....what are your thoughts?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Wont budge with the warmth.... Stillb tries to rain on us... And yes i know the gfs runs warm for the most part just hate seeing it

One way to avoid it is to just not look at GFS ptype maps or clown maps....its a refreshing model experience.

[Stash]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They were wrong....AWT(10)

As it appears now, you've certainly done a better job on this one, congrats! Out this way, we're used to having the football pulled away at the last second in these. Especially the past several years.

[wxsniss]

Absurd thermals still

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

That's snow right into BOS. Sick.

You’ve been very emotional today swinging from bridge jumping to cartwheels now. Just remember that when others do it too. Everything doesnt always have to be pristine model discussions. Weather is fun too.... roller coasters are good times. Hope you get pasted.

[CT Rain]

Definitely SE with that dry slot

[weathafella]

GFS actually crushes eastern MA.

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Absurd thermals still

Still think GFS has no clue with this one.  Just need to take the up side that the track caved to everything else.  Cold and qpf will be there.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

One way to avoid it is to just not look at GFS ptype maps or clown maps....its a refreshing model experience.

Great when all soundings show a straight up snow profile and those maps show rain

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Absurd thermals still

Check some soundings out, we bang

[wxsniss]

That's 3 for 3 in 0z suite

Euro gravitational pull delayed but not denied... and we're not talking ticks, those were big jumps southeast

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Definitely SE with that dry slot

Will you take them up so we can take em off?

[ajisai]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

GFS actually crushes eastern MA.

heavy stuff sticks around from 03z to 12z... nice

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Great when all soundings show a straight up snow profile and those maps show rain

Well the soundings are warm below 925..but it's not really believable that KBED is rain with a -2 at 900mb and -4 at 850 with that track.

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Colts run defense in the goal line stand against 1993 Emmitt Smith.

It's pretty bad, but at least it's consistently much warmer than the rest.

My biggest red flag (and I mentioned this last night in my AFD) is that the GFS continues to warm the boundary layer, while the rest of the model guidance pins that coastal front in place and even cools at 00z when the heavy stuff starts.

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will you take them up so we can take em off?

 

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ve been very emotional today swinging from bridge jumping to cartwheels now. Just remember that when others do it too. Everything doesnt always have to be pristine model discussions. Weather is fun too.... roller coasters are good times. Hope you get pasted.

Except I wasn't actually bridge jumping. I was being a wisea*s. 

I get your point, but I posted keep the faith several times this afternoon and said either 3-6" or 5-10" as my lowest forecast this afternoon.

I also clearly started there was a chance for it to go the other way.

I wasn't blindly posting, 'It's going to rain' without looking at any of the model runs, like we had multiple people doing last storm

[rnaude241]

I wonder if this keeps trending east if even I can pickup 2-4". 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Well the soundings are warm below 925..but it's not really believable that KBED is rain with a -2 at 900mb and -4 at 850 with that track.

Best guess on every sounding I pulled for my hood said snow. Best guess tosses GFS surface temps I guess