Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[weathafella]

Ray should have been a met.  He has great passion and attention to detail while able to build on his knowledge base and experience.  The only caveat is I don’t think he cares that much outside of winter.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

MSN and FLG were BRUTAL. I went from inside Top 15 to 40th. Freaking consensus doing well these days...

FLG was brutal. So glad to have moved on from that place. 

[jbenedet]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We should add up the total number of wxchallenge trophies and championships in this subforum.

Idc. It's street cred in my book. And it's legit and verifiable.

I have 0, so there's mine.

 

[CarverWX]

36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Really pounds down here overnight. I’m optimistic for 6+ as long as the rates don’t suck

Looks like we start to pound some where between 7-8pm tonight per the HRRR

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

A friend of mine at the state rep's office just forwarded me their lil NWS situational report email. 6-10" in Boston, 8-12" in coastal Essex County, up to 12-18" interior Essex County. 

[weatherwiz]

100 J of CAPE in the -12C to -18C layer!!!!!!!!!!!!

[weatherwiz]

Starting to think we see a swath of 18-24'' across western CT

[DomNH]

I was first place for like the first week of one city my senior year and then I forgot to make a forecast. Idk how people remembered to forecast every day. 

[snowman21]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been doing pretty bad. I'm ranked 580th through the entire contest this year. Granted I have had a couple days (all this semester) where I climo'd. PArt of it is not having the time to really look into details. I also really suck at forecasting lows. I think the method I use for highs works much better in the warm season too than the cold season

All it takes is for you to crush the field on one day to put you near the top. Seems like many go with the consensus which over the long haul works, but not in a short two week period for one city. I had one day where I had a low of 38 when everyone else had 52 because I had a late night cold front coming in just before midnight for a city in the high plains. Immediately jumped me to second place thanks to that one ballsy forecast.

[TalcottWx]

Reynolds Wolf is in "Wooster" 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

All it takes is for you to crush the field on one day to put you near the top. Seems like many go with the consensus which over the long haul works, but not in a short two week period for one city. I had one day where I had a low of 38 when everyone else had 52 because I had a late night cold front coming in just before midnight for a city in the high plains. Immediately jumped me to second place thanks to that one ballsy forecast.

I think it was last year but it was one of the cities in MS or AL and on the first day I went with a high of 76 and I think consenus was like 67 or 68. They got to exactly 76 and I spent the first week in 1st place then I screwed up something and finished in the low 100's. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Starting to think we see a swath of 18-24'' across western CT

I like the east ticks which results in deform snows overnight .

[bristolri_wx]

Still not sure how with the recent model changes they don't at least have some Winter Weather Advisories posted in Bristol County, MA, Bristol County, RI, and Newport County, RI.  I know we are not getting big snows, but 3-6" is not out of the realms of possibility by any means when it gets cranking later after dark and we've had advisories for less.  The HRRR continues to give us that amount for 5-6 straight runs now.

[JC-CT]

We Euro

[weatherwiz]

I've seen some stuff on twitter about depolorization with dual pol? Does anyone understand it and like what it's purpose is and how you read/view it? like what product do you look at?

[WintersComing]

4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Reynolds Wolf is in "Wooster" 

TWC should focus on updating there forecast which appears to be from a couple days ago instead of putting these stooges all over the place

[CoastalWx]

Euro crushes after 00z. 

[TalcottWx]

Wind has really picked up. 

TWC just did a local on the 8 with 6-12" for Boston

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Reynolds Wolf is in "Wooster" 

Who the hell is that?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro crushes after 00z. 

Indeed. 2-4" to the canal?

All hail the JMA.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro crushes after 00z. 

All the guidance has E MA going absolutely bonkers after 00z or so. Definitely an enhanced period there.

[snowman21]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Who the hell is that?

I thought that was the guy from CNN.

[weatherwiz]

up, up and away

[WintersComing]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Who the hell is that?

Stooge from the Weather Channel

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Starting to think we see a swath of 18-24'' across western CT

I like that area for the pivot. I agree.

[dendrite]

Euro with the final nail in the coffin up here. Another forgettable event. Congrats to the S and E.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Indeed. 2-4" to the canal?

All hail the JMA.

What’s Euro got CT?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, WintersComing said:

Stooge from the Weather Channel

Oh, do people still watch that?  I stopped like 20 years ago.

[TalcottWx]

The euro never even comes close to getting 925mb above freezing.

We're going to get smacked.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I like that area for the pivot. I agree.

yeah I'm really becoming more confident in the pivot...that was one of my concerns with going the higher end with totals but looking more and more likely it will hapen