Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WintersComing said:

 

Hey I predicted this yesterday, do you remember,  lol

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best guess on every sounding I pulled for my hood said snow. Best guess tosses GFS surface temps I guess 

They should...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, Stash said:

Yikes, big cutback over ALY area from KALB on north where they currently have 12-18 forecasted.  

We don't want to see the Euro take a tic E tonight, that's for sure.  BOX and Albany have been really aggressive with snow amounts from Catskills through Albany, Berkshires and NW MA.  I would rather not wake up to see those totals cut by 1/3 or 1/2 but I have had a hard time believing the amounts for WNE / E NY / S VT.  

[WintersComing]

Most recent HRRR has a nice look to it FWIW

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hey I predicted this yesterday, do you remember,  lol

I think he was just waiting for your blessing lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Catskill cxl

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Stash said:

As it appears now, you've certainly done a better job on this one, congrats! Out this way, we're used to having the football pulled away at the last second in these. Especially the past several years.

If it makes you feel any better, I'd have rather had the last one.

[OceanStWx]

That faux GFS mixed layer really taints the overall look to things. When I plot 950 mb temps, the Reg and NAM12 really give a reasonable look to the coastal front pinned near 95. But the GFS has above freezing well back into MA and NH because it thinks 950 is in the mixed layer. 

In my opinion it even taints the wet bulb temp, because the surface is just too warm in the first place and gives an artificially high wet bulb because of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well the soundings are warm below 925..but it's not really believable that KBED is rain with a -2 at 900mb and -4 at 850 with that track.

Really, really good consensus now for SLP track just inside the BM and outside of ACK...climo sweet spot for me.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Sup folks!

Spent the last hour catching up.  Not surprised by some of the model trends.  Razor thin margin for some still.  Still a great thump for the CT peeps up into MA W of Rt 128 and N of I-90.  The 00z RGEM has a nasty dryslot that shuts off the precip in E areas around midnight or shortly thereafter.

[ORH_wxman]

Uncle is a bit east of 12z on the plymouth maps...better maps out in about 45 min

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Catskill cxl

Let's not move on to a Berkshires cancel also.  

 

[ajisai]

[WintersComing]

Some bangin snowfall rates over CT there

[Baroclinic Zone]

Forgot to add this.

The GFS sucks with temps in the BL.  Seriously, why is it so awful?

[CT Rain]

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

and it has on and off flakes in the air through Saturday night....weeks and weeks of snow.

[TalcottWx]

Going to try to go to bed. We'll see how this goes.

[WintersComing]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

Ya some major lift going on there!

[8611Blizz]

Harvey on board

 

[TalcottWx]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Harvey on board

 

DETAILS PLEASE

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

Going to try to go to bed. We'll see how this goes.

I’m nearly certain that when I check this forum in a half-asleep haze at 2am that you’ll have posts in the euro pbp. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

That's a pretty great mid level track for you.

[8611Blizz]

3-5 in bos but 5-8 very close

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The GFS is pretty much pornographic here

Too bad you need to toss it.

[MBRI]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

and it has on and off flakes in the air through Saturday night....weeks and weeks of snow.

 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's a pretty great mid level track for you.

Yeah we take. All day I thought we'd get skunked with some mid level issues.... but GFS/NAM are great. I'm thinking we wind up with crappy ratios in the valley - but still that's a great look. 

[tavwtby]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Sweet. Kind of thought it was heavy rain to snow 

Nah all snow man... area from New Haven to around Manchester picked up 35-40"

[tavwtby]

Any OBS from ENY?? Is that for real or virga?

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That faux GFS mixed layer really taints the overall look to things. When I plot 950 mb temps, the Reg and NAM12 really give a reasonable look to the coastal front pinned near 95. But the GFS has above freezing well back into MA and NH because it thinks 950 is in the mixed layer. 

In my opinion it even taints the wet bulb temp, because the surface is just too warm in the first place and gives an artificially high wet bulb because of it.

Believe it or not it smacks as though an entire series of physical equations were inadvertently left out of the final build of that model… An error that somehow went under the radar during release and it's been functional with it ever since. Wasn't this new version of the GFS released in the summer?

Re-the wetbulb thing: during the nor'easter the GFS had windswept pouring rain at 39/30 the whole way for Worcester… It really seems like it physically is failed programung how to saturate the atmosphere in the bottom of the Ekmanlayer