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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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erfus

erfus

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Too bad the NWS is disregarding it.

 

This is a couple hours old, but...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

Quote

Preference: non 12Z GFS blend Confidence: Slightly above average Regarding the surface low forecast to track north along the Northeast coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night, ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ensemble trends have not shown much in the way westward/eastward trends since yesterday, but perhaps a subtle shift to the west valid 00Z/08 and 12Z/08. The deterministic guidance has also only shown minor movement since yesterday except the UKMET which has trended west since yesterday through its 00Z/06 cycle and then slightly east with its 12Z/06 cycle. The strength looks similar regarding the surface to 500 mb lows in all of the guidance except early in the forecast regarding a sub-5280 m low situated over Iowa at 12Z. The 12Z NAM/GFS, RAP show a 5280 m contour valid 12Z/07 over the Ohio valley whereas the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC do not. Considering only minor trends in the guidance through today's 12Z cycle, The 12Z GFS surface low track looks to be on the western side of the available model spread while the remaining 12Z guidance is similar to one another. The result is a warmer surface to 850 mb layer in the 12Z GFS compared to the remaining guidance. A growing consensus seems to be for a non 12Z GFS solution for this system through Thursday.

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

dead nutz with current conditions, GFS NAM already too far NW

I really didn't think the differences started showing until tomorrow on the models...

Its really at hour 36 that I think the models really start to diverge.  Normally I see this and think interior whopper on the way but then the EURO jumps way east before resuming the north motion.

If it doesn't make that jump from this panel to the next, it really wouldn't be that much different.  It heads out to that convection out over the ocean.

p8s3fu0.png

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Hopefully it is smoking crack with thermals...probably is but you never know

It makes me feel better to see it is sleeting down in VA right now with temps in the mid 40s. The upper levels are much colder this go round. With dynamics, I think we'll do better.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WthrJunkyME said:

First time all winter I feel locked in for some great snow and Thursday happens to be my birthday!  Unfortunately, I suffered a heart attack Saturday night.  Thank you to dryslot’s neighbors in Lewiston for saving my sorry ass!  Proud owner of two stents, no restrictions, feel great and will be blowing snow Thursday. :D  I am in complete awe of medical science right now.

Not fun.  Two months ago today I had an a-fib episode (heart rate cycling between 70 and 170 every 3-4 minutes - my normal is 48-50) that earned me a very bumpy meatwagon ride and two nights in hospital with lots of tests, plus a heart cath the following Friday.  Did the symptoms start at midday that windy and bitter Saturday (my max was -6) while I was chopping away the solid 3-4 ft deep plow pile so we could get mail delivery?  Of course not.  It was 8 hours later as I sat at the dining room table addressing envelopes.  However, I got away lots easier than you did.  After the cath, the specialists (and later visits with the cardiologist) recommended no invasive procedures, just meds and staying alert.  The cardiologist also noted that for folks with sleep apnea (like me - I use a CPAP every night), a-fib is a question of when, not if.  Later I talked with my older - by 3 years - brother on his 75th birthday, and found out he'd had some a-fib episodes as well, and his rate spiked to over 180.  (All our lives he's been able to beat me at almost everything, except deer hunting and that's only because I live in the woods and he spent 28 years traveling all over with the Army COE.)

Comment on the bypass - My wife had a heart attack 10+ years ago, near complete blockage of the left coronary artery.  We had 30 minutes notice before she headed in for a double bypass.  (Heart surgeon said later that even the smallest clot and there would've been no chance of survival.)  That was October of 2007 and she's been symptom free ever since.  May you do even better.  There are too few Maine peeps on this board - we can't afford to lose any.  ;)

And I'm looking forward to the 12-18" that GYX is currently predicting for my area.  In my 19 previous March snows, I've had 15"+ just twice, 8 days apart late month in 2001.  It's time for #3.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hoth said:

It makes me feel better to see it is sleeting down in VA right now with temps in the mid 40s. The upper levels are much colder this go round. With dynamics, I think we'll do better.

Doesn't really have much to do with our storm besides the general fact we have much colder temps aloft. So yes, it's great to see sleet vs rain, but we have to hope it translates to the coastal 

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