BristowWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh it will. I'm about ready to stop the torture. Wednesday is day, and now we have to hope for a hail Mary. I mean, I'm in for the ride, but I'm not optimistic. Great way to bring in the time change. I’m am going to think positive this one time and yes where it gets me. I’m think those current snow maps are underdone and we could see higher totals if it stalls like that and snows for 24 hours. Can’t beleive I said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh it will. I'm about ready to stop the torture. Wednesday is dead and now we have to hope for a hail Mary. I mean, I'm in for the ride, but I'm not optimistic. After today's GFS run, it can only go downhill, right? It may very well fail, but the 500 mb set up really is pretty damn good. No denying that. Possibly the best of the winter. Biggest problems are we are approaching mid March and crappy climo, and it is not a very cold looking pattern. We truly do need a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: After today's GFS run, it can only go downhill, right? It may very well fail, but the 500 mb set up really is pretty damn good. No denying that. Possibly the best of the winter. Biggest problems are we are approaching mid March and crappy climo, and it is not a very cold looking pattern. We truly do need a bomb. Yes. What the GFS has right now would be a winter-saver. Sure, I'm being pessimistic, but I'm also being real. That storm has indeed been there on the models for quite a few runs and it's legit. Give that to me in under 96 hours and I'll warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Climate175 said: That looks ideal. Can’t improve too much on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh it will. I'm about ready to stop the torture. Wednesday is dead and now we have to hope for a hail Mary. I mean, I'm in for the ride, but I'm not optimistic. It's not torture to me. I never expect it to snow so when it fails it's no big deal. And I love the thrill and challenge of the chase. But I don't blame you for that take. But your also not one who comes in here and tells others what to do or makes fun of us for tracking. They are the ones that are like nails on a chalkboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Why so pessimistic this is The Final Storm before the negative Nao breaks down...classic Heather A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wxrisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Why so pessimistic this is The Final Storm before the negative Nao breaks down...classic Heather A Ok. You know I'm normally always in till the end. But I'm beaten down. I'm genuinely glad to see folks excited, but I have zero gas in the tank. I'm running on fumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok. You know I'm normally always in till the end. But I'm beaten down. I'm genuinely glad to see folks excited, but I have zero gas in the tank. I'm running on fumes That actually makes it easier. I'm not necessarily beaten down...I simply dont care one way or the other. I moved on mentally a week ago. I'm tracking stuff but with no investment or risk of loss. It's liberating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Ya gotta zoom out to see how nice the h5 look really is on the GEFS leading into this potential event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That actually makes it easier. I'm not necessarily beaten down...I simply dont care one way or the other. I moved on mentally a week ago. I'm tracking stuff but with no investment or risk of loss. It's liberating. I think you put it better. I'm at that stage now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 For reference, here's the 0z eps meteo for gburg. Looks fairly bullish for the 11th-13th and is the best eps run for the period we've seen. I have a hunch 12z will look better and so on. It makes complete logical sense to get our shot as the neg nao breaks down. There's quite a list of past events that worked lIke that. Otoh- it makes complete sense for March climo to fight back at this point. Weak or fringed isn't going to do it like prime climo. It's pretty much all or nothing in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 At least it's at Day 8 and 9... not 10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The gfs sniffed out the potential for next weekend when it came into the 384 hour window last week. Looking at the heights across North America this run, it also looked like the time when the pattern is breaking down, which is always a period for potential. But I was surprised to see the pattern looking to reload at the end of the run and bring another potential system with a favorable track. I'm not getting greedy but just making a point that maybe this is the real deal because this pattern is fraught with potential. If next Monday's storm were to happen, I'd fully expect the pattern to break down just has it has after other big events but the reload is good to see if even fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ya gotta zoom out to see how nice the h5 look really is on the GEFS leading into this potential event.. That is textbook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Why so pessimistic this is The Final Storm before the negative Nao breaks down...classic Heather A I'm not pessimistic. It's the best setup we've had since Jan 2016. (Not saying much lol). But it is mid march and it's been a tough 2 year stretch so many are just emotionaly drained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Saw the deepening high over the lakes yesterday when it showed rain. That's always something to watch for when looking for a good event in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Saw the deepening high over the lakes yesterday when it showed rain. That's always something to watch for when looking for a good event in our area. High near the Gr Lakes + Low near the Canadian Maritimes. Check on the GFS/GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: At least it's at Day 8 and 9... not 10 lol I was thinking the exact same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I’m just waiting for the GFS to finally be wrong...and March 12 will likely be that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Need more support but it is sort of tempting to believe in a GFS type scenario, although obviously I would not go with it as my scenario since it's a bit ludicrous in the result. In other words, there is decent likelihood of a big storm in that period and also it is somewhat less believable that the storm would be inland v coastal despite a more favorable look for the former on ensembles, at least in ways. Models have not been particularly amazing at any range this winter, and they are still doing perhaps less good than you'd expect in a blocking pattern. With the -NAO supposedly giving in, at least for a time, it's also generally a favorable window historically for something on the bigger side.. plus March etc etc. I would tend to favor a coastal in that period but would not get into too much detail for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wish i could see the precip maps on the euro. Prob paltry like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Wish i could see the precip maps on the euro. Prob paltry like the GFS yeah looks interesting until you look at the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wish i could see the precip maps on the euro. Prob paltry like the GFS Its worse. Pretty much no snow for NJ even. Totally a NE event. This thing is so gone for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 4, 2018 Author Share Posted March 4, 2018 DT on the 12/13 event (skip to later in the video if you want to hear him talk about it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its worse. Pretty much no snow for NJ even. Totally a NE event. This thing is so gone for us. Yup. Not even worth following anymore for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro looks okay at 120hrs. A touch more progressive than the GFS if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Oh...I see the GFS served up another day 8/9 goodie...Given all those that have gone "poof" this winter...I'm too afraid to buy into this, despite what you guys have been saying about how the look and timing could be almost textbook, lol Maybe for my own sanity, I'll take a few days off and check back Wednesday to see if it's still there...lol (nah, I don't think the snow weenie section of my brain will be able to resist, but we'll see!) But man we deserve this to pan out, don't we? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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