March or BUST! - Pattern & Model Discussion

[rimetree]

13 hours ago, dendrite said:

05 or 06? Both were wet, but 06 was ridiculous.

You're correct, 2006. I was thinking 2005 because of the flash flooding event in Alstead that October.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NEFlooding2006_7day_Rainfall.gif

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's all we got.

Euro looks a smidge more robust with that.

Probably either congrats you or Salem.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a pretty damn steep sounding ...

Man, that was a cold look in the Euro, huh - it'll be interesting to see if that's legit, or if it's typical modeling slide back that often happens at this time of year in late mid ranges...  Although, the -EPO in the GEFs ... together with apparent interlude of -AO may lend credence to .. not warm - put it that way.  We'll see.. But should that evolve with -20 850's straddling the boarder, it's hard to imagine no snow some how some way. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Also ...fwiw, we there is an emerging low/moderate amplitude +MJO ... in constructive wave interference nonetheless (-WPO) ... which means, the NP wave spacing may favor an eventual amplitude in the +PNAP. 

Just have to be vigil of the fact that in the spring ... faux signals can change pretty quickly.  If that were January though -

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I won't count next weekend out for maybe offering something.

[WinterWolf]

Lol, here goes Tip...showing the possibilities just when it seems like we are done... if it was looking good, he’d be showing us why it might not happen.  Mr. Opposite is in the house!!

 

It’s all good..love knowing the possibilities on the pro and con sides.  Great info Typhoon Tip, but bring the extreme event imo! 

[CoastalWx]

Early April does not look impressive to me. Looks like we start enaging in Sping soon even if we do not have 70s.

[ORH_wxman]

Got a bit of snow early this morning. Maybe half inch. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol, here goes Tip...showing the possibilities just when it seems like we are done... if it was looking good, he’d be showing us why it might not happen.  Mr. Opposite is in the house!!

 

It’s all good..love knowing the possibilities on the pro and con sides.  Great info Typhoon Tip, but bring the extreme event imo! 

Yeah it's all good...buuut, no -

".. Just have to be vigil of the fact that in the spring ... faux signals can change pretty quickly.  If that were January though - ..."

That's just as telling as the facts regarding the tele's at that time I post that, yesterday. I think maybe you biased your focus on the other aspects of that, ...for whatever reason, then took note that it happens to polarize against the meme phenomenon that goes on in here - the synoptic flavor and emotional tie-in of the moment.

I get it that some those points I made were opposing the smoldering fear that this winter's last winter storm opportunity was a (sad trumpet) bust. However, the issue isn't that I seek contrarian points to make; the issue is that I don't engage in that phenomenon. I would report that either way. Sometimes it jives with mold...sometimes it will not. Some of the material of those posts in this situation, seemed to set against said tenor.

Having said that... on can see why big early April bombs that are book-ended by spring days happen ... historically. Presently, here are large masses of air at or less than -20 C in the critical sigma levels over much of Canada right through the 7th of next month.  One cycle... the Euro is ominously cold, with more -EPO look and bringing the interface of that air mass right down to the boarder ...with some incursion of modified versions - albeit still plenty cold.  Next cycle?  Not so much. That antic played out between 12z and 00z from yesterday to last night.

Either version, particularly at this time of year... makes for hugely different sensible impacts.  When the sun shines now, even conditionally chilly air (say > 0 thru -12C), provided the wind is light, you get that "nook and cranny" faux spring warmth that is just as effective at giving spring enthusiasts their version of the ecstatic glow, as though the mixing depth was +10 C in full sun on a west-southwest wind.   Under a shedding sun and provided the wind is indeed light ... NWS thermometers/sites may merely report 45 F, but down on the thoroughfares, ... parking lots and back decks the feel is more like 60.

However, the environmental condition of < 0 C from 900 MB on up means that an hour of solid overcast and saturation flips the surface right back to late February.  So, April 1 1997 was a fantastic version of that .. perhaps too good, because believe me, someone is reading this to mean that's what the author of this post thinks is happening.  It's an exquisite example for the point at hand: 63 F was the high at UML nestled in the Merrimack Valley just two days prior 15" of blue glory at that location (obviously 30" fell down toward Framingham/metrowest where it was just as mild that same two days before hand).  Three days after that it was 57 ...and the next week it was in the 70s. 

Anyway, the point I was making, these sort of spikes backward toward winter are conditionally prone to happening when there are necessary ingredients around at all ...which next week has plenty. 

[moneypitmike]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Early April does not look impressive to me. Looks like we start enaging in Sping soon even if we do not have 70s.

Come early April I look forward to the lawn thread to occupy my time.

[Typhoon Tip]

Speaking of which ... I have been watching the models for Tuesday and Wednesday this week for that 'nook and cranny' niceness ...

The 00z Euro has a narrow surface ridge collocated right over New England. Yesterday's runs had it slightly west... two days ago, more where it was positioned in the 00z run last night ... So it's been subtly lacking discrete consistency. It makes a difference where, perhaps a big one, sensibly.  I feel pretty confident in the general sysnoptic featuring of having that ridge - it's in most guidance.  But, should it align slightly west, than we may be in the very outer fringes of that oceanic gyre's cyclostrophy and that means chilly offset NE flow (probably).  Contrasting, if the ridge does collocate, then DVM will tend to offset that and also keep the local breeze circulation at "bay" - perhaps literally there.  Temps in the mixing levels recover pretty smartly by Tuesday morning ...so, with light winds and post Equinox sun cooking away I could see that day being the first bona fide sensible spring-like day of the season. Not sure if Wednesday is cloud contaminated - if so...not much. But if it remains < say 50%, if anything it would be more so... 

Bit of a bust potential on machine guidance plausible on those two days.  I've seen 60 F under 0 C at 850 mb in February before in perfect heating so... seeing MOS at 53 on Tuesday ...heh

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

E arly Apokril does not look impressive to me. Looks like we start enaging inlookng soon even if we do not ha ve 70s.

Oh boy oh boy oh  boy

there should be a e mass Thread for misery mist and backdoor Obs.

Spring is the most disgustIng wretched period for cp of ema imo. North of ASH and W of ORH the period is so much more something to Look fwD to

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Oh boy oh boy oh  boy

there should be a e mass Thread for misery mist and backdoor Obs.

Spring is the most disgustIng wretched period for cp of ema imo. North of ASH and W of ORH the period is so much more something to Look fwD to

How do you mess up someone else’s spelling?

[Damage In Tolland]

No spring warmth in sight .weeks more of hell

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No spring warmth in sight .weeks more of hell

Give me sun in April and I don’t care what the temp is.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Give me sun in April and I don’t care what the temp is.

Yeah it looks fine. 

 

Anyways it’s amazing what woods do. I’m at my folks and they have pretty much solid snowpack even further down s shore. I only have maybe 40% left. Sun ftw I guess. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

12 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I won't count next weekend out for maybe offering something.

We’re done

[MaineJayhawk]

I'm ready to melt this snow

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How do you mess up someone else’s spelling. I'm busy looking at james' s taint always taint there.

The edit feature is beyond horrible

I  Will type a reply and next thing i know the cursor is inside the quoted text Copying the last word i typed in reply into their quote.

 

[klw]

Measured about 23 inches of glacier in the backyard yesterday.  Spots in our woods seemed deeper but near streams the melt is expanding to open up some areas.

[HoarfrostHubb]

44 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The edit feature is beyond horrible

I  Will type a reply and next thing i know the cursor is inside the quoted text Copying the last word i typed in reply into their quote.

 

Yeah. It jumps around quite a bit

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Early April does not look impressive to me. Looks like we start enaging in Sping soon even if we do not have 70s.

I think we're done.

I'll give it a couple of more weeks before officially slamming the door with a verification thread.

[Typhoon Tip]

"... Spring soon even if we do not have 70s"

Interesting...  if we want to use that logic, we could argue spring kicked in back in mid February ...and all these recent storms were, there were either wet nor easters  and more typical spring blues... either way, none of which were atypical of spring climo in up in our neck of the woods. We just had a lot of them.

But, there's probably some subjectivity to that ...tedious and time-wasting to get into so why bother.  But just imagine this journey over the last five weeks if the NAO hadn't shown up to the party... We'd probably be a cycle of lawn mowing behind us...

But in all reality, the fact that Tuesday and Wednesday probably make the mid to high 50s, with lots of sun to add to that charm on Tuesday, that's probably a foregone conclusion that we're doing spring.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"... Spring soon even if we do not have 70s"

Interesting...  if we want to use that logic, we could argue spring kicked in back in mid February ...and all these recent storms were, there were either wet nor easters  and more typical spring blues... either way, none of which were atypical of spring climo in up in our neck of the woods. We just had a lot of them.

But, there's probably some subjectivity to that ...tedious and time-wasting to get into so why bother.  But just imagine this journey over the last five weeks if the NAO hadn't shown up to the party... We'd probably be a cycle of lawn mowing behind us...

But in all reality, the fact that Tuesday and Wednesday probably make the mid to high 50s, with lots of sun to add to that charm on Tuesday, that's probably a foregone conclusion that we're doing spring.

 I mentioned the 70s, just to illustrate that the weather may be pleasant despite not being very warm.  Sure you can never rule out some sort of renegade bowling ball, but the pattern as a whole doesn’t seem all that wintry to me. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 I mentioned the 70s, just to illustrate that the weather may be pleasant despite not being very warm.  Sure you can never rule out some sort of renegade bowling ball, but the pattern as a whole doesn’t seem all that wintry to me. 

Hmm... Well, I guess nearing April ... 'seeming' wintry may take a subjective opinion, and then make is HUGELY subjective...

But, from D7 through 11 or so in both the EPS and GEFS there is huge sprawling area of deep negative anomalies at 850 mb over much of Canada, with the much ballyhooed EPS version bleeding it south some... , which for a base-line canvas is a solid metric to go by.  One may argue it stays safely tucked N of the border, but I wouldn't take that bet with -EPO and the MJO trying push through late 6/7

I mean, if people want it to be crystalline air and pristine snow that's going to be hard to come by - it's not DJF.  However, in terms of successfully transitioning to spring, that's a troubled look. 

That said, I am also pointing out in equal measure as of late that means and individual runs are subjected to increased stochastic behavior due to usual transition season stuff, with trend break downs and so forth so... there's running caveats along with that complexion. 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm... Well, I guess nearing April ... 'seeming' wintry may take a subjective opinion, and then make is HUGELY subjective...

But, from D7 through 11 or so in both the EPS and GEFS there is huge sprawling area of deep negative anomalies at 850 mb over much of Canada, with the much ballyhooed EPS version bleeding it south some... , which for a base-line canvas is a solid metric to go by.  One may argue it stays safely tucked N of the border, but I wouldn't take that bet with -EPO and the MJO trying push through late 6/7

I mean, if people want it to be crystalline air and pristine snow that's going to be hard to come by - it's not DJF.  However, in terms of successfully transitioning to spring, that's a troubled look. 

That said, I am also pointing out in equal measure as of late that means and individual runs are subjected to increased stochastic behavior due to usual transition season stuff, with trend break downs and so forth so... there's running caveats along with that complexion. 

You know how it is though. This time of year, give me sun, and I’ll give you near to AN temps, as long as the airmass isn’t highly anomalous on the cold side. The tendency to me seems to keep the cold in Canada overall and also in the Plains. It’s defintely not warm, but the 11-15 may only be near to slightly below if the EPS is right. The GEFS are chilly but when aren’t they chilly. 

[MJO812]

Gfs and CMC have a deep trough in the middle of country and east at 240

[Typhoon Tip]

There are really three layers to this conversation that really should be kept separate. 

one ... the synoptic appeal and features therein. The 850 anomaly coverage ... the -EPO... Hell, the NAO tries another westy in there too.  But those are different then -

two ... offset corrections like those you described (hugely agree).  I just said this morning as a matter a fact (and this 12z Euro is arriving really painting it colorfully here..) Tuesday dawns 0 C at 850 mb, and matures to +4 or +5 by late afternoon, under near full sun and near col wind - post the Equinox ? ... yeah, proooobably go substantively above machine on that day.  Yup!  Wednesday looks less adulterated by cloud on this run too, with even warmer mixing depths... If clouds are less we touch 70 in that profile that day. 

But all that can carry about while the hemisphere still supports snow looks -    I'm guessing April 7 is our magic number this go... at least for the hemisphere part of it.  The dailies sneaking in spring here and there is almost purely manufactured by the climbing insolation..

three ... I'm totally wrong.   But, I think there is a distinction and that is why we can sometimes experience:  relative warm - bowling ball snow bomb - relative warm sometimes inside of 6 day stints at this time of year. The idea there is that you don't get the spring snow bomb when the hemisphere isn't promoting snow; it's just that the hemipshere is being masked by the sun's abuse. hm

By the way, GFSX MOS ... for KFIT is subtantially over climo for the end of this week, to go along with your losing winter look:

MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29| FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01|MON     CLIMO N/X

                 23 43|     22 51|   26 45|  40 64|   47 56|    34 60| 42 63| 36 29 50

[MJO812]

Add Euro to the list of cold by 240.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Add Euro to the list of cold by 240.

I'm assuming you actually know this ... but, D10 particularly at this time of year is almost meaningless..

That said, the cold signals abound, even if the model appears spurious and way over-done with that.   Heh, as is? That vortex is like a -10 SD feature for this time of year - ...kidding, but it's so absurd that it has like 120 kts of balanced wind everywhere in the middle troposphere.  We pay good money to get jet maxes in S/W with 2/3rds that kind of velocity and this run does it everywhere - okay.