weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I've been thinking about this today and I also asked my professor if we would discuss dynamic cooling in our current class but is there really any way to gauge how that process evolves and when it begins to evolve...and what models would have the physics built into them to resolve this the best? Given the strength of the dynamics and degree of upward vertical motion here you would have to think the process of cooling due to air rising rapidly would occur rather quickly...I'm just trying to visualize how precipitation falling through the atmosphere (heavily) enhances this process more. If the secondary becomes too amped too quickly does this reduce the influences dynamic cooling has? Is there also a region where dynamic cooling has the biggest influences with respect to the dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I feel like things are pretty much on track. I'd like to see a better upstream low level airmass (Tw pretty high in NH and ME) but it is what it is. I think it's just too warm in the valley here for more than and inch or two. my snow map is probably going to be big time toast...like embarrassingly toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 37 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: If you believe the clown maps, its a dumping for some and a toaster bath for others. Be very careful using those maps, soundings don't support much of that with a torched 900 to 950 layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 28 minutes ago, Logan11 said: I"m optimistic here, but the highest jack amounts probably 25 miles south of here. 37/28 now. You have been locked for days, Congrats Rick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 FWIW the 21z SPC SREF plumes slightly increased the mean snowfall for BDL while decreasing the total the highest member had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: You have been locked for days, Congrats Rick! Yea some crazy amounts will come out of the Cats. Wind too. Look at the winds already in Ohio NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Meanwhile off topic, but this -NAO is resulting in a crazy storm in Ireland tonight. Dublin looking at 18 inches with up to 3 feet possible. https://www.earthcam.com/world/ireland/dublin/?cam=templebar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I feel like things are pretty much on track. I'd like to see a better upstream low level airmass (Tw pretty high in NH and ME) but it is what it is. I think it's just too warm in the valley here for more than and inch or two. Yeah I would be more excited if we had dews in the teens to mid 20s today. But 50s over 30 with full mixing isn’t ideal. Once the lift gets going it shouldn’t take too long though to get the column there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Meanwhile off topic, but this -NAO is resulting in a crazy storm in Ireland tonight. Dublin looking at 18 inches with up to 3 feet possible. They're stealing our snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea some crazy amounts will come out of the Cats. Wind too. Look at the winds already in Ohio NY They deserve getting the goods, Typically on the outside looking in, Perfect setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Latest HRRR seems to have slipped a decent bit south with the low...more of a EURO trajectory. Decent change in the last 3 hours of runs in how far north the precip firehose sets up midday tomorrow. It significantly dropped the QPF for spots like SVT and Monadnocks that it had a couple runs ago. Interesting to see if its a blip or a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 It's gonna pour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Wow, mean snows on the SREFs are bullish for the area. SFZ - 6.93" OWD - 6.75" PYM - 4.58" EWB - 4.72" PVD - 5.26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: They deserve getting the goods, Typically on the outside looking in, Perfect setup. I think we don't pay attention to the Catskills just because they are outside of our regional subforum but they do big storms pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Be very careful using those maps, soundings don't support much of that with a torched 900 to 950 layer Most of those accumulations occur late at night after the entire column has cooled w/ NNE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Latest HRRR seems to have slipped a decent bit south with the low...more of a EURO trajectory. Decent change in the last 3 hours of runs in how far north the precip firehose sets up midday tomorrow. It significantly dropped the QPF for spots like SVT and Monadnocks that it had a couple runs ago. Interesting to see if its a blip or a trend. It also warms temperatures during the day despite a N wind. Probably not right...probably same reason that was described the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It also warms temperatures during the day despite a N wind. Probably not right...probably same reason that was described the other day Mid-level temperatures also rise a bit though. It's not like there's a lot of cold air up here. Heck here in N.VT we will likely be a little warmer than places getting crushed by precip. There's really no cold air to "drain down" on a north wind. Like BDL has a lower H85 temperature at 5am tomorrow than they do at 10am as that mid-level warmth rotates inland from the east for a time. Similar to what ORH/Will was talking about if the ORH Hills start as snow then go to rain before going back to snow. I bet we'll see some excited posts tomorrow morning if its snowing in some nearby hill locations like Litchfield County and northern ORH Hills as people think its closer than it should be, but there is a period of mid-level warmth that causes temps to rise into the middle of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Most of those accumulations occur late at night after the entire column has cooled w/ NNE winds Look at the soundings on 3k hr by HR for your hood. Somethings amiss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Mid-level temperatures also rise a bit though. It's not like there's a lot of cold air up here. Heck here in N.VT we will likely be a little warmer than places getting crushed by precip. There's really no cold air to "drain down" on a north wind. Like BDL has a lower H85 temperature at 5am tomorrow than they do at 10am as that mid-level warmth rotates inland from the east for a time. Similar to what ORH/Will was talking about if the ORH Hills start as snow then go to rain before going back to snow. I bet we'll see some excited posts tomorrow morning if its snowing in some nearby hill locations like Litchfield County and northern ORH Hills as people think its closer than it should be, but there is a period of mid-level warmth that causes temps to rise into the middle of the day. I’d guess that idea doesn’t happen. My guess is if it’s snow in morning in x location.. they stay snow for duration under banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think we don't pay attention to the Catskills just because they are outside of our regional subforum but they do big storms pretty well. Directed more at the folks in the lower elevations, They haven't done well at all....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 I'm inclined to go with the NAM thermals rather than the GFS. The 18z NAM had me at 40-41F right now, which is where I'm at. The GFS had me at 45F. Using OWD stats, about a mile or so away as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Directed more at the folks in the lower elevations, They haven't done well at all....lol Ha true... not set in stone they do well in this one either out there. Hudson Valley is a big wildcard, like most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea some crazy amounts will come out of the Cats. Wind too. Look at the winds already in Ohio NY Snowshoe, WV already gusted to 73. Lot of energy with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Temp has really fallen last / hours down to 44 and dews coming down. Winds are really starting to crank NE I don’t expect to be snow until mid/ late afternoon, but I won’t be shocked if it mixed or flipped back and forth well before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Mid-level temperatures also rise a bit though. It's not like there's a lot of cold air up here. Heck here in N.VT we will likely be a little warmer than places getting crushed by precip. There's really no cold air to "drain down" on a north wind. Like BDL has a lower H85 temperature at 5am tomorrow than they do at 10am as that mid-level warmth rotates inland from the east for a time. Similar to what ORH/Will was talking about if the ORH Hills start as snow then go to rain before going back to snow. I bet we'll see some excited posts tomorrow morning if its snowing in some nearby hill locations like Litchfield County and northern ORH Hills as people think its closer than it should be, but there is a period of mid-level warmth that causes temps to rise into the middle of the day. There is certainly no cold air in place but for me it's very difficult to see any sort of temperature rise...sfc and aloft as the day progresses. I am (and perhaps too much) really thinking dynamic cooling really takes over and when we have intense lift over the region places will get snow...even if they're 34-35F at the sfc...now when intensity lessens they could flip to rain. But aloft...I don't see much warming during the day either b/c eventually this thing occludes and that cuts off the warmer air being wrapped into the system and once the occlusion happens warm air inflow is done...and by this point temps aloft will likely be marginal but if we still have great lift I would have to think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’d guess that idea doesn’t happen. My guess is if it’s snow in morning in x location.. they stay snow for duration under banding I'm not sure. It's not uncommon in these strong U-wind anomaly systems to have mid-level warmth advected in from the Atlantic. Even up here we go from -4C tonight at H85 to 0C or even +1C around midday tomorrow with the deep layer easterly flow. Good ol' memories of February 2010...luckily not much precip up here as I'd be pissed if it was dumping in the Catskills and raining up here, lol. There's a push of warmer air in there. Different story if it was turning to a more northerly flow then I'd agree, but its like deep layer ESE aloft. I think we see the snow retreat a bit west into the midday hours before it all starts to crash later in the day as the flow goes more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Ran the Genny, gassed up , got extra gas and cash just in case. No joke storm snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 Just now, weatherwiz said: There is certainly no cold air in place but for me it's very difficult to see any sort of temperature rise...sfc and aloft as the day progresses. I am (and perhaps too much) really thinking dynamic cooling really takes over and when we have intense lift over the region places will get snow...even if they're 34-35F at the sfc...now when intensity lessens they could flip to rain. But aloft...I don't see much warming during the day either b/c eventually this thing occludes and that cuts off the warmer air being wrapped into the system and once the occlusion happens warm air inflow is done...and by this point temps aloft will likely be marginal but if we still have great lift I would have to think snow. Good point, but even loop the EURO 850mb temps and you can see a mix of both ideas. H85 temps warm from 6-12z but then it occludes and holds steady from 12-18z before falling quickly after that. Loop a bunch of model 850mb temps and you'll see that sort of evolution. It's not a lot of warmth but an extra 1-2C at 850mb will make a huge difference. Very interesting forecast for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ran the Genny, gassed up , got extra gas and cash just in case. No joke storm snow or not. I think the winds underperform expectations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 2, 2018 Share Posted March 2, 2018 The NAM is a bit warmer through 12 hours than it was at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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