February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We need to score during the first 10 days of march. Temps really start fighting after that and we have to start relying on big departures. 

I thought it was a good run too. No specific period of interest in the LR. Just some random stuff showing up getting my interest. Would be nice to get a legit storm. Like 6-12" or something like that. If I got a 10" storm I'd have to give winter a B- despite the endless stingy snow period we endured. Maybe we get lucky and have a repeating pattern of closely spaced storms. Who knows? March looks to start off pretty good with the best looking atlantic since 2011.  Would suck to waste a block. 

What was the pattern leading up to 3/25/13?

[frd]

Chris DeVito and the modestly - PNA connection with the NAO

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

What was the pattern leading up to 3/25/13?

Pretty good on paper. Looks like a pretty classic MA snow look to me. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you can't extrapolate a good storm track with this kind of mean h5 panel then you don't know how to read an h5 panel. haha

Is a 50/50 low with blocking alone enough?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Has that early March 2001 look in the LR. Hopefully we can get so.ething similar to form but farther South this time.

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Is a 50/50 low with blocking alone enough?

No, you need a storm too. 

[Bob Chill]

Makes sense that a west based -nao coincides with a -pna. You can't really have 5k miles of continuous ridging. Wavelengths need to bend. 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Some people try too hard. lol

yeah i thought i missed something.  Warmies gonna warm

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Things look good to me too. Very good. We all know how March can be with snow. Especially as you get closer to the cities. But IF we're going to get a March event, the mean look is encouraging to at least be in the game. That's all it is...being in the game. People try to be definitive all the time with this stuff. Like with tomorrow, a whole slew of folks just categorically wrote off Feb just cuz. And they made sure they were heard too. Completely ignoring that Feb is a primo climo snow month and DOESN'T require a perfect pattern. Weather can just be weather. It was 70+ degrees yesterday and we're staring down the barrel of a legit snow event tomorrow. lol. All the lame arguments we constantly hear are just senseless babble. Saturday is a perfect in your face type of event and shows that blabbering definitive calls based on lame arguments makes you look not very knowledgeable to put it politely. 

None of us know what's going to happen in March but it looks like we're entering the month squarely in the game. It's that simple. Details will work themselves out one way or the other. 

 

ETA: N alt blocks are rarely big cold patterns. I fully expect plenty of 50+ degree days to be showing up as we move towards March. But a single well placed high pressure and favorable track can easily snow on us. Doesn't have to be an arctic high or subfreezing for days on end. It can be 50-60 degrees for a week straight and then a big nasty coastal can drive up from the south and pound us. We'll here about soil temps, sun angle, doesn't get below freezing until after onset and all that other senseless babble and then 12 hours later people will be shoveling a foot of potatoes off their driveway. lol

Can you please post that in the central PA forum.  You'd push a few over the edge....

Well stated.  Many of us long timers, know that prior to fancy computers and highly informative websites, that this is/was a normalish kinda winter.  Not great by any stretch, but no ratter either.  Many now see a pic of snow on some model, and assume its happening and debbie all freakin day when it doesnt.  Yeah the LR still looks intriguing, and hopefully we go out w/ a bang. 

 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Can you please post that in the central PA forum.  You'd push a few over the edge....

Well stated.  Many of us long timers, know that prior to fancy computers and highly informative websites, that this is/was a normalish kinda winter.  Not great by any stretch, but no ratter either.  Many now see a pic of snow on some model, and assume its happening and debbie all freakin day when it doesnt.  Yeah the LR still looks intriguing, and hopefully we go out w/ a bang. 

 

If I were in central over to eastern PA the pattern being advertised would excite me. With your added latitude over the Mid-Atlantic your chances are better to get the cold needed for snow. And with this pattern we could be talking some big moisture laden storms rolling through.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If I were in central over to eastern PA the pattern being advertised would excite me. With your added latitude over the Mid-Atlantic your chances are better to get the cold needed for snow. And with this pattern we could be talking some big moisture laden storms rolling through.

Keep an eye on the period around the 26th. 18z gfs had a rainy version of what the euro control had. Control was a legit event that gets pushed under the block setting up. Just something to casually watch for now but we may not have to wait until march before our next chance at something. 

[Bob Chill]

On 2/12/2018 at 7:25 AM, Mdecoy said:

6Z GFS is about as bad as you can get for Feb snowlovers.

Cutters, rain, warm. Nothing even remotely close. This brings us to the last day of Feb, yes its a ways out there, but I don't even see how anything could trend in our favor (except maybe this weekend which is likely DOA)

oops

[frd]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Keep an eye on the period around the 26th. 18z gfs had a rainy version of what the euro control had. Control was a legit event that gets pushed under the block setting up. Just something to casually watch for now but we may not have to wait until march before our next chance at something. 

You have good company Bob 

 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

You have good company Bob 

 

Winter wx in these parts is such a fickle beast. We froze our tails off and couldn't get a damn thing to break right with precip for weeks this winter. Now we have a tiny window where the column briefly supports snow sandwiched between stretches of 60+ degree weather. On paper, tomorrow's storm looks terrible but it's breaking right. Simple luck right? We've had enough chances and finally something breaks right. 

Now we're moving towards a more classic look for snowfall in the MA with what looks to be a legit stable block with a 50/50 at times. It increases odds but will something break right again? Will we go on a heater and get multiple events? You never know around here. That's why giving up early because we had a prolonged unlucky stretch doesn't make sense to me. If you truly like tracking snow in these parts then stick with it start to finish. It rarely comes easy but any time from late Nov through mid (or even late) March things can happen.

My total guess is we have at least one more event this season after this weekend. I also believe that someone on the east coast is going to get a pretty big storm. Stick a -NAO with a 50/50 in place for a couple weeks in Feb or March and it usually means someone is going to get a big storm at some point. Obviously the further north you go the better the chance but we look to be in the game for the foreseeable future.  All we can do is watch, wait, and hope for the best. Maybe our number is called again. Would be great to get another shot this month or before our season is put to bed for good.  

[frd]

More on the PNA in the long term, this goes along with previous posts about how there should be a lessening - PNA.

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Yall have to understand, there is major bias beyond pattern right now. It goes both ways, 13-14 was cold, December was cold

[pazzo83]

8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Has that early March 2001 look in the LR. Hopefully we can get so.ething similar to form but farther South this time.

do we need to remind you of the nearly 17 year old rule here?  jfc

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's pluses and minuses.. there is so much forward ridging, the whole North Atlantic retrogrades to the east coast by the end of 00z GFS

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Check out this ridge

[dallen7908]

FWIW, the CPC outlook for Mar 3-16 calls for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.  They believe the MJO will weaken and be a non-factor and discount the predicted negative trend in the NAO and AAO shown in the GEFS. They base their forecast on the La Nina state and its extratropical response through the PNA, which is expected to be negative. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Wish I could bet the over/under on these long range forecasts, uh, over. 

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 70

 

 

[RevWarReenactor]

13 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

oops

Funny, but a bit unfair, I was analyzing that specific run. More of a testament to how lousy the models are in the LR. I also wouldn't celebrate until this stuff verifies. I think for DC, south and east today's storm will still be a whole lot of nothing. The March madness stuff is still pretty far from a reality. 

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Funny, but a bit unfair, I was analyzing that specific run. More of a testament to how lousy the models are in the LR. I also wouldn't celebrate until this stuff verifies. I think for DC, south and east today's storm will still be a whole lot of nothing. The March madness stuff is still pretty far from a reality. 

unfair...dude, check your last 1000 posts and find one w/out being a debbie......then check back w/ us.

 

Repeating things almost everyone here knows by now offers little to the discussions...good or bad.  its been a challenging winter, but its not been horrid.

Not trolling ya, but think about your post "style".  March may not become a reality, but if you have some other way of sharing long lead insight (cyrstal ball/snoglobe...whatever), then were all ears.

all we can do is discuss and point out the pros and cons.

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

Funny, but a bit unfair, I was analyzing that specific run. More of a testament to how lousy the models are in the LR. I also wouldn't celebrate until this stuff verifies. I think for DC, south and east today's storm will still be a whole lot of nothing. The March madness stuff is still pretty far from a reality. 

Just because long range models aren't a perfect crystal ball with 100% accuracy, doesn't mean they're "lousy".

[Chris78]

As others has alluded too I think the 25th though 27th looks interesting. The GFS has a system running south of us with a high pressing in from the north. Doesn't show anything currently but I think it has potential.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, Mdecoy said:

Funny, but a bit unfair, I was analyzing that specific run. More of a testament to how lousy the models are in the LR. I also wouldn't celebrate until this stuff verifies. I think for DC, south and east today's storm will still be a whole lot of nothing. The March madness stuff is still pretty far from a reality. 

Nah, not unfair. I randomly picked one of probably 100s similar posts. 

I don't get why you are so hard on LR stuff. Sensible wx is limited to 4-5 days tops most of the time. Especially with discrete precip events. But potential and shutouts can be identified at pretty long leads. This is a game/hobby. It's fun because it's very challenging, complicated, and rewards don't come easy. If you don't like playing the game and can't handle disappointment or frustration then don't play at all. It's really that simple. 

You like to criticize everyone for playing and it makes no sense. We do it because we like it and I can ASSURE you that no window will ever go unnoticed or discussed at ANY lead time. Potential and opportunity /= sensible wx. For those of us who actually enjoy playing this game and participating in this hobby, we don't need to be constantly reminded and criticized by the likes of you. We know exactly how this works. We know the returns are low. We know there are no locks. But we also know that IT DOES SNOW HERE. How, when, and why is a complicated and fun process to figure out. We'll continue to have our fun the exact same way every single year regardless of how it all happens. Nobody can say anything or do anything to change any of the minds of the dedicated folks. It's always fun for us even if often frustrating and disappointing. If it's not fun for you then don't bother reading or posting a single thing here. Why torture yourself? 

[joeride]

MDecoy, you should change your name to Eyore, as you're never satisfied. 

In Eyore voice "Oh well it's going to snow but not enough" "18Z showing snow but it won't happen"

Geesh cheer up, enjoy life, if we miss this year, we start working on the next year.

It can be fun, if you open up and let it be fun.

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, not unfair. I randomly picked one of probably 100s similar posts. 

I don't get why you are so hard on LR stuff. Sensible wx is limited to 4-5 days tops most of the time. Especially with discrete precip events. But potential and shutouts can be identified at pretty long leads. This is a game/hobby. It's fun because it's very challenging, complicated, and rewards don't come easy. If you don't like playing the game and can't handle disappointment or frustration then don't play at all. It's really that simple. 

You like to criticize everyone for playing and it makes no sense. We do it because we like it and I can ASSURE you that no window will ever go unnoticed or discussed at ANY lead time. Potential and opportunity /= sensible wx. For those of us who actually enjoy playing this game and participating in this hobby, we don't need to be constantly reminded and criticized by the likes of you. We know exactly how this works. We know the returns are low. We know there are no locks. But we also know that IT DOES SNOW HERE. How, when, and why is a complicated and fun process to figure out. We'll continue to have our fun the exact same way every single year regardless of how it all happens. Nobody can say anything or do anything to change any of the minds of the dedicated folks. It's always fun for us even if often frustrating and disappointing. If it's not fun for you then don't bother reading or posting a single thing here. Why torture yourself? 

This

9 minutes ago, joeride said:

MDecoy, you should change your name to Eyore, as you're never satisfied. 

In Eyore voice "Oh well it's going to snow but not enough" "18Z showing snow but it won't happen"

Geesh cheer up, enjoy life, if we miss this year, we start working on the next year.

It can be fun, if you open up and let it be fun.

And this 

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I am talking about the rant from the long range discussion a couple of days ago 

Umm did you miss what the long range looks like???

thats textbook!  And the snow mean on the gefs is responding long term and this time it has pattern support. But I'm preoccupied by the snow today plus a friend from Brazil and a college buddy coming to visit this evening and cordinating all that with the snow and ugh...

bit the look is great. Could it fail sure but we could just as easily cash in for 1-2 legit snows with that look. No way am I throwing in any towel right now no matter what happens today. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Umm did you miss what the long range looks like???

thats textbook!  And the snow mean on the gefs is responding long term and this time it has pattern support. But I'm preoccupied by the snow today plus a friend from Brazil and a college buddy coming to visit this evening and cordinating all that with the snow and ugh...

bit the look is great. Could it fail sure but we could just as easily cash in for 1-2 legit snows with that look. No way am I throwing in any towel right now no matter what happens today. 

Understood. But what happens when it breaks down