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February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Have kind of been neglecting the longer range with snow on our doorstep to track. But after reading some of the gloom and doom posts the last day or so thought I would look into it this morning a touch. And to be honest I can't understand the pessimism. As you said the GEFS has degraded a touch but looking at it was pretty obvious there was probably two camps warring over the solution. The one solution I would favor would be the one that heavily favors the EPS. And all I can say about the EPS is that is a great look to have in the NAtlantic. I don't care how bad the PAC may look I think the look showing up over the Greenland and 50/50 region  (basically a Rex block) would trump the PAC in this case. In fact I sort of like the PAC in the fact it puts a very active southern stream through our southern CONUS. Not a cold look by any means but at worst it would afford us serviceable cold within reach for any potential storm. I can very well see a moisture laden crawling bomb or two with this setup.

Thanks guys.  I've been keeping an eye on it as well, and my concern was seeing the GEFS "lose" a bit of its good look and the stubborn troughing in the SW has me thinking that while the NAO can help keep things under us, it needs to be stout enough to do so or we risk being on the wrong side at our latitudes.  That bias is typically saved for the EPS.  Y'all know I'm no debbie...but I guess I'm a little nervouos...(not that the signs of a -NAO showing up have anything to do with it).

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The bigger issue to me the last several runs across guidance is the Pac look is more hostile in the LR. Can even see it on the CFS now. The largest + height anomalies are a bit further west towards the Aleutians and lower heights over AK and western Canada more pronounced.. We can have all the NA blocking we want but if the Pac goes to complete crap its going to be a lot tougher to knock down the ridge in the east.

There is a symbiotic relationship there... the more the atlantic blocking retrogrades the more it applies pressure on the lower heights in western Canada and also forces things to cut under and dig out lower heights across the CONUS.  Retro the NAO ridge enough and it can link up with the EPO and create the rarest of situations the full high latitude block across NAM.  I think the atlantic side is the key here.  The pacific does drive the bus in many situations...but in March with the weakening jet and shorter wavelenghts and propensity for cut offs....and in a nina the NAO is more significant IMO.  

37 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Have kind of been neglecting the longer range with snow on our doorstep to track. But after reading some of the gloom and doom posts the last day or so thought I would look into it this morning a touch. And to be honest I can't understand the pessimism. As you said the GEFS has degraded a touch but looking at it was pretty obvious there was probably two camps warring over the solution. The one solution I would favor would be the one that heavily favors the EPS. And all I can say about the EPS is that is a great look to have in the NAtlantic. I don't care how bad the PAC may look I think the look showing up over the Greenland and 50/50 region  (basically a Rex block) would trump the PAC in this case. In fact I sort of like the PAC in the fact it puts a very active southern stream through our southern CONUS. Not a cold look by any means but at worst it would afford us serviceable cold within reach for any potential storm. I can very well see a moisture laden crawling bomb or two with this setup.

Yea its not a cold look but its a stormy one.  Get something to amplify under us or cut off in the perfect spot and we don't need a big negative temperature anomaly to get some snow.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thanks guys.  I've been keeping an eye on it as well, and my concern was seeing the GEFS "lose" a bit of its good look and the stubborn troughing in the SW has me thinking that while the NAO can help keep things under us, it needs to be stout enough to do so or we risk being on the wrong side at our latitudes.  That bias is typically saved for the EPS.  Y'all know I'm no debbie...but I guess I'm a little nervouos...(not that the signs of a -NAO showing up have anything to do with it).

I wasn't really buying the over done solutions with the blocking we were seeing a few days ago so it really came as no surprise when they backed off somewhat with that. That said what they are showing now is more then sufficient to get the job done. But you are right if we do see that back down even more (more then just a little bit) then the whole thing goes into the crapper.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The AO and NAO are so positive right now that getting both indices into negative territory might be tougher than first thought. 

And to your point any increase in lag time to get there is pushing us against that climo clock that will start ticking louder by the day. If that happens the warmies will be dancing in the streets singing “I told u so”. 

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We could get another shot this month if a CAD high times itself but it's not a very tasty look through the rest of Feb. You can never jump the gun and write off anything. We'll see how it goes. 

What REALLY has my attention is this look in March...heh....

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png

Might be a good time for me to take a weekend ski trip, either in this area or up north. I've been waiting for the chance and I hope we get something good out of this.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Some people try too hard. lol

Figures...most of the 12z guidance came in good for tomorrow so they come over here to take a dump in the long range thread LOL

But the EPS took a big step in the right direction last night...the GEPS looks great, and now the 12z GEFS decided to get right.  They all look good...but the best part is where they leave off in early march with a retrograding block over top and heights starting to lower over the CONUS should translate into that CFS look you posted shortly after in the March 7-15th period or so.  That is pushing it yea but its not too late to pull something off.  We could even pull something off before that with the 50/50 there but it definitely moves towards a money pattern towards March 10th or so.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Figures...most of the 12z guidance came in good for tomorrow so they come over here to take a dump in the long range thread LOL

But the EPS took a big step in the right direction last night...the GEPS looks great, and now the 12z GEFS decided to get right.  They all look good...but the best part is where they leave off in early march with a retrograding block over top and heights starting to lower over the CONUS should translate into that CFS look you posted shortly after in the March 7-15th period or so.  That is pushing it yea but its not too late to pull something off.  We could even pull something off before that with the 50/50 there but it definitely moves towards a money pattern towards March 10th or so.  

Things look good to me too. Very good. We all know how March can be with snow. Especially as you get closer to the cities. But IF we're going to get a March event, the mean look is encouraging to at least be in the game. That's all it is...being in the game. People try to be definitive all the time with this stuff. Like with tomorrow, a whole slew of folks just categorically wrote off Feb just cuz. And they made sure they were heard too. Completely ignoring that Feb is a primo climo snow month and DOESN'T require a perfect pattern. Weather can just be weather. It was 70+ degrees yesterday and we're staring down the barrel of a legit snow event tomorrow. lol. All the lame arguments we constantly hear are just senseless babble. Saturday is a perfect in your face type of event and shows that blabbering definitive calls based on lame arguments makes you look not very knowledgeable to put it politely. 

None of us know what's going to happen in March but it looks like we're entering the month squarely in the game. It's that simple. Details will work themselves out one way or the other. 

 

ETA: N alt blocks are rarely big cold patterns. I fully expect plenty of 50+ degree days to be showing up as we move towards March. But a single well placed high pressure and favorable track can easily snow on us. Doesn't have to be an arctic high or subfreezing for days on end. It can be 50-60 degrees for a week straight and then a big nasty coastal can drive up from the south and pound us. We'll here about soil temps, sun angle, doesn't get below freezing until after onset and all that other senseless babble and then 12 hours later people will be shoveling a foot of potatoes off their driveway. lol

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Things look good to me too. Very good. We all know how March can be with snow. Especially as you get closer to the cities. But IF we're going to get a March event, the mean look is encouraging to at least be in the game. That's all it is...being in the game. People try to be definitive all the time with this stuff. Like with tomorrow, a whole slew of folks just categorically wrote off Feb just cuz. And they made sure they were heard too. Completely ignoring that Feb is a primo climo snow month and DOESN'T require a perfect pattern. Weather can just be weather. It was 70+ degrees yesterday and we're staring down the barrel of a legit snow event tomorrow. lol. All the lame arguments we constantly hear are just senseless babble. Saturday is a perfect in your face type of event and shows that blabbering definitive calls based on lame arguments makes you look not very knowledgeable to put it politely. 

None of us know what's going to happen in March but it looks like we're entering the month squarely in the game. It's that simple. Details will work themselves out one way or the other. 

That's why I LOL at the stink some were making about "not enough definitive forecasts" a while ago.  We have a great discussion about the possibilities...people can read and figure things out for themselves from that.  A definitive forecast for something that far out is stupid...I could make up some nonsense and throw it down and be right a decent percent of the time if I based it heavily on climo but I don't actually know what's going to happen and neither does anyone else and I don't like to BS.  I sensible discussion about what MIGHT happen is way more productive IMO.  

As for the "february is over" nonsense...that was just an emotional response from people that have decided this winter sucks and want to vent...  I wait until its over to decide what it was or wasn't.  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

especially the Pac

Go back and look at the H5 from some of our biggest storms...the pac is less then idea in many of them.  The more blocking you have on the NAO side the less ideal the pacific can be.  Its a sybiotic relationship, like a see saw...the less help from one the more you need from the other.  If the Atlantic blocking retrogrades into north america enough we can get away without much help from the pacific.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

GEFS and EPS are hinting at another chance before the month is out. Small signal but some members drive another southern system into cold air around d10-11. Euro control hits us flush d11. lol

Scattered and far from a majority but the ens are showing more chances d10-15. If we score another moderate event in the next 15 days and then get a flush hit from a coastal in early March then it could be a memorable late save. 14-15 didn't really get going until 2/14. We had a couple events before mid Feb but it was dire and depressing in the LR threads until the door finally opened. And we all know how that ended. 14-15 will be fondly remembered forever even with the late start with the good. Not saying I expect a hot and heavy late Feb/March combo this year but a late save is certainly on the table. Probably moreso than many people give credit for. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS and EPS are hinting at another chance before the month is out. Small signal but some members drive another southern system into cold air around d10-11. Euro control hits us flush d11. lol

Scattered and far from a majority but the ens are showing more chances d10-15. If we score another moderate event in the next 15 days and then get a flush hit from a coastal in early March then it could be a memorable late save. 14-15 didn't really get going until 2/14. We had a couple events before mid Feb but it was dire and depressing in the LR threads until the door finally opened. And we all know how that ended. 14-15 will be fondly remembered forever even with the late start with the good. Not saying I expect a hot and heavy late Feb/March combo this year but a late save is certainly on the table. Probably moreso than many people give credit for. 

The Almanac likes that time frame for a coastal too :D (but then again, they've taken a shot in the dark for an early March coastal before, lol) Will be interesting to see what happens!

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you can't extrapolate a good storm track with this kind of mean h5 panel then you don't know how to read an h5 panel. haha

AyVFknp.jpg

there is alot of interesting EPS members towards the end of the run. I see alot of fat HP pressure systems where we need them to be lol

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you can't extrapolate a good storm track with this kind of mean h5 panel then you don't know how to read an h5 panel. haha

AyVFknp.jpg

Interesting from Ventrice a weak - PNA   ( -1 or less ) combined with a - NAO is not bad at all, ( see image below of 4 other years ) , while Chris feels March averages to a slight - PNA and a - NAO

 

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is alot of interesting EPS members towards the end of the run. I see alot of fat HP pressure systems where we need them to be lol

We need to score during the first 10 days of march. Temps really start fighting after that and we have to start relying on big departures. 

I thought it was a good run too. No specific period of interest in the LR. Just some random stuff showing up getting my interest. Would be nice to get a legit storm. Like 6-12" or something like that. If I got a 10" storm I'd have to give winter a B- despite the endless stingy snow period we endured. Maybe we get lucky and have a repeating pattern of closely spaced storms. Who knows? March looks to start off pretty good with the best looking atlantic since 2011.  Would suck to waste a block. 

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