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WxUSAF

February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We had a reshuffle to a gradient pattern and we are on the wrong side. Perhaps the elusive -NAO will save winter. I am 100% sure that I have no idea what will transpire.

From 10 days out the gradient pattern looked more promising because the cold was centered just to our northwest. But as the period got closer the nao trended more positive and the PV trended north and in reality we ended up on the wrong side. The h5 isn't way off from what was being advertised but all the subtle corrections were in the wrong way. 

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Lol all the stj waves on the gfs are timed up with northern stream systems cutting across to our north to both inhibit development and ruin the thermal profile. 

The uber long range keeps trending better though. Not complaining about the look at 300. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

From 10 days out the gradient pattern looked more promising because the cold was centered just to our northwest. But as the period got closer the nao trended more positive and the PV trended north and in reality we ended up on the wrong side. The h5 isn't way off from what was being advertised but all the subtle corrections were in the wrong way. 

I know I was just having a little fun. The pattern had potential, but was always high risk for failure. The combo of +NAO and PV not making a more southern trek doomed it. One thing is for sure, there wont be any drought talk for a while.

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Give me the blocking showing up and the active stj from the soi crash and I'll take my chances even with a mean ridge. We don't need a mean trough to get one snowstorm. And that's all I'm looking for. That's my win bar. One warning event. Throw waves across with blocking this time of year and one can easily amplify in a good spot to snow on us in an otherwise warm or average temperature period. 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know I was just having a little fun. The pattern had potential, but was always high risk for failure. The combo of +NAO and PV not making a more southern trek doomed it. One thing is for sure, there wont be any drought talk for a while.

But what about persistence?

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol all the stj waves on the gfs are timed up with northern stream systems cutting across to our north to both inhibit development and ruin the thermal profile. 

The uber long range keeps trending better though. Not complaining about the look at 300. 

Its going to be a slow process. We may still get lucky around the 18th, but the GFS has crapped on that threat the past couple runs.

Where is Ji to announce the 12z GFS is a disaster?

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Things actually get good pattern wise toward the end of the 12z gfs. And before the "yea it's 13 days away" starts yes it is and yes it's low probability but that's when things would get good if the blocking has an effect. It's not instant. It can be if the pattern going in isn't hostile and cold is in place. Bit more often once blocking establishes it takes time to see threats materialize so seeing things start to look better towards the very end of Feb is what we want even if it's not in believe range yet. 

I know this isn't what some want because we have a group that likes to throw away march but if this pattern does go the way the cfs or the better runs of other guidance suggests and we want the peak of a favorable period for snow would be the very end of Feb and into March. Sometimes thinks can flip fast and if so great but that's a more typical timeline. 

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its going to be a slow process. We may still get lucky around the 18th, but the GFS has crapped on that threat the past couple runs.

Where is Ji to announce the 12z GFS is a disaster?

Maybe we get lucky but that threat looks like more of the same. The changes toward the end reflect something we've not seen. A buckling and slowing of the northern stream and thus an opening in the door. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe we get lucky but that threat looks like more of the same. The changes toward the end reflect something we've not seen. A buckling and slowing of the northern stream and thus an opening in the door. 

Yeah the end of this run aligns with the very end of the past couple GEFS runs. That has looked like the period when things would get good with the NA block moving into a more favorable position for us. Going forward we should see the eastern ridge get more muted and lower heights take its place on the ens. That started to occur at the end of the 6z GEFS run.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its going to be a slow process. We may still get lucky around the 18th, but the GFS has crapped on that threat the past couple runs.

Where is Ji to announce the 12z GFS is a disaster?

And this winter...the GFS has been a harbinger of doom everytime (although should we give this one another day before we count it out? I mean, the GFS did show like 3 different looks the last three runs, right?)

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol all the stj waves on the gfs are timed up with northern stream systems cutting across to our north to both inhibit development and ruin the thermal profile. 

The uber long range keeps trending better though. Not complaining about the look at 300. 

Story of the winter 

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the GFS is a disaster...and having to wait 16 days for the pattern to get right...smh

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27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I know I was just having a little fun. The pattern had potential, but was always high risk for failure. The combo of +NAO and PV not making a more southern trek doomed it. One thing is for sure, there wont be any drought talk for a while.

The recent run is a "lite" version of Feb 14,15 and 94. 

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when the gfs shows snow 8 days out...its not gonna snow. And when it shows no snow 8 days out..its still not gonna snow

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

the GFS is a disaster...and having to wait 16 days for the pattern to get right...smh

But its been pretty clear for a while now that pattern was going to take time to get right...like 2 weeks or so. That really has not changed. We basically had one shot before that to get a little something but that seems dead on the GFS for now.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You expect snow to just show up the minute the blocking starts? 

He’s probably upset about punting most of our best snow climo month.  And the previous one.  Just a guess 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You expect snow to just show up the minute the blocking starts? 

i expect snow to show up in the heart of our snowiest period. Why does it always have to be a process. Ive seen us go from 80 to snow in 2 days. We are just unlukcky this year...we had had like 10 chances for snowstorm and failed on all of them

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i expect snow to show up in the heart of our snowiest period. Why does it always have to be a process. Ive seen us go from 80 to snow in 2 days. We are just unlukcky this year...we had had like 10 chances for snowstorm and failed on all of them

Ninas suck

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i expect snow to show up in the heart of our snowiest period. Why does it always have to be a process. Ive seen us go from 80 to snow in 2 days. We are just unlukcky this year...we had had like 10 chances for snowstorm and failed on all of them

Yea we have but not in this pattern. Go back to September and several people myself included said the nao would be important. And right now the nao is a hot mess. Getting a fluke is hard in a Nina with a positive nao. Almost impossible. We will have a chance once it tanks. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea we have but not in this pattern. Go back to September and several people myself included said the nao would be important. And right now the nao is a hot mess. Getting a fluke is hard in a Nina with a positive nao. Almost impossible. We will have a chance once it tanks. 

why is it impossible. The carolinas have seen multiple events...so have the beaches...NYC/NJ/New England. New Orleans...florida. Charleston SC had a 6 inch event It is not impossible to snow in Nina with a positive NAO....its only impossible for the DC area...

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

He’s probably upset about punting most of our best snow climo month.  And the previous one.  Just a guess 

Me too but I came to grips with that about a week ago. Once it became obvious this pattern was going to be hostile all my attention turned to our last Hail Mary of a blocking induced better pattern the very end of Feb. I guess if he is still holding out hope that some miracle snowstorm just materializes from nothing each run then he is setting himself up to be disappointed. But this run wasn't any worse then expected. It got good at the end when there is a legit chance. Before that sucked as expected. The thread day 7 has too many moving parts to show well now. It's still there but still a long shot. 

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

i expect snow to show up in the heart of our snowiest period. Why does it always have to be a process. Ive seen us go from 80 to snow in 2 days. We are just unlukcky this year...we had had like 10 chances for snowstorm and failed on all of them

The part that sucks is we had enough chances for the whole region to be sitting between 10-15" right now but we failed in all but the first chance. Now we're going through a typical shuffle period with a nw storm track as we approach the hail mary period. 

The good thing is we seem to be moving towards our first chance at a favorable pattern for a big storm. Haven't had that all year. The bad thing is time is running thin and good patterns are far from a guaranty of anything. The icing will be a mid/late March perfect track miller a that rains on us. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

why is it impossible. The carolinas have seen multiple events...so have the beaches...NYC/NJ/New England. New Orleans...florida. Charleston SC had a 6 inch event It is not impossible to snow in Nina with a positive NAO....its only impossible for the DC area...

That's Nina climo. I've said this a few times. I wish someone that has it would post the Nina snowfall anomaly map again. It shows our area in the greatest negative anomaly with more snow wrt normal north and south of us. 

In a Nina without nao blocking to buckle and slow the northern stream we are stuck in between. Stj waves that come across with cold can hit south of us or phase late and clip the coast but it's unlikely that they bully up to us like in a Nino year. Their too weak with a NS racing across to our north. And the NS is too fast to dig and get things to amp under us. We are in a bad spot. 

With nao help it can snow in a Nina here but the snow data says absent nao help nope we get minor events only. This year has been wall to wall positive nao so we got exactly what climo says we should.  

Its not bad luck totally. Yea we COULD have lucked into something but climo says what's happening is the most likely outcome in a positive nao Nina. If we get the nao negatuve that changes the equation. 

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

why is it impossible. The carolinas have seen multiple events...so have the beaches...NYC/NJ/New England. New Orleans...florida. Charleston SC had a 6 inch event It is not impossible to snow in Nina with a positive NAO....its only impossible for the DC area...

PS...in a positive nao Nina we are in about the absolute worst spot for snow wrt normal. Obviously Miami gets less but you know what I mean. 

But in a negative nao Nino were in one of the best spots. This just isn't our year. 

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