February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

[poolz1]

Looks like a possible hiccup on the eps at 00z....12z looks much more like the gefs.  Been a while since we have seen this look across the board and moving forward in time.  Here's to hour 300 blizzards in the digital snow thread!

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I cant stop drooling over that Davis Strait block and the 50-50 low locked in under it. The last couple runs of the GEFS its not even a 50-50, its so far south. I suppose suppression will start to be a concern if that look holds. The 12z run today is quite a bit colder looking in the east, and the precip anomalies for days 10-16 aren't a bad look.

First I really had a chance to look at the extended GEFS, One word for it, WOW. Think I would have to agree with WxUSAF that has major cutoff potential not to mention other possible bizarre solutions. And looking at the EPS it has come back from the overnight run though it is no where near to the extreme as the GEFS. As we had talked about before. If we see anything close to the GEFS verify it is going to be interesting times in here for sure. Whether that equates to snow I guess we will see.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Lol, have you guys seen this? 588dm heights hitting DC

 

[Rtd208]

 

[showmethesnow]

Looking at the 18Z GFS in the longer range and things are beginning to get interesting. Should be some fun times ahead if that extreme blocking materializes.

[Vice-Regent]

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Lol, have you guys seen this? 588dm heights hitting DC

 

It's crunch time and the crickets persist. Odd abrupt shift in the near-time on the 18z GFS. Something is not being modeled correctly, some sort of energy flux.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at the 18Z GFS in the longer range and things are beginning to get interesting. Should be some fun times ahead if that extreme blocking materializes.

It's a very good pattern for CAD in general. With unusual storm tracks too. We could get an all snow event with west track. The crazy IVT solution at the end of the 18z gefs is another strange type of thing that can happen with a roadblock 50/50 in place. 

It's not a big cold pattern (big -nao patterns rarely are) but it could be a big storm pattern for someone on the east coast. I expect fantasy 1-2' storms to start showing up not too far down the line. Early March with a big -nao could surely light the fuse on something big or make something unconventional work well. Timing and/or bad luck can ruin even the best pattern but I expect some serious fantasy digital snow bombs to start showing up along the east coast here shortly. 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a very good pattern for CAD in general. With unusual storm tracks too. We could get an all snow event with west track. The crazy IVT solution at the end of the 18z gefs is another strange type of thing that can happen with a roadblock 50/50 in place. 

It's not a big cold pattern (big -nao patterns rarely are) but it could be a big storm pattern for someone on the east coast. I expect fantasy 1-2' storms to start showing up not too far down the line. Early March with a big -nao could surely light the fuse on something big or make something unconventional work well. Timing and/or bad luck can ruin even the best pattern but I expect some serious fantasy digital snow bombs to start showing up along the east coast here shortly. 

There have already been a few hidden in the ensembles. Sooner or later one will show on an op run. 

[psuhoffman]

Day 10 could be something.  

[Ji]

Gfs shows dividends at 252

[Ji]

Day 10 could be something.  

Seems like -nao snow is coming in way faster than anyone thought

[Ji]

I would of paid to see where the gfs 384 was going

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Day 10 could be something.  

Seems like -nao snow is coming in way faster than anyone thought

We usually have to wait a bit but sometimes things can cascade fast once blocking sets up. Nothing will shock me. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Euro does it again, 588dm heights to DC. This time there is a 594 off the SE coast

[Rtd208]

 

[frd]

@Rtd208 In regards to what John states above, I think it is really important to get the - NAO block as far SW as possible into the favored areas.  

Today's Euro will shed a little more light on this hopefully.  

[Ji]

this thread is dead

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this thread is dead

so is the SE ridge. Need the NAO block to be positioned a little better

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

 

[psuhoffman]

I'm happy with the gefs today. Trended back to cold enough. I say cold enough because this is the temp anomaly Saturday evening during the snow threat we're chasing now. This is Day 16. We don't need arctic cold to get a snowstorm with blocking.

 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

this thread is dead

Like you, everyone is busy tracking the possibility of an inch or so of slush on their lawn between torchers.

[Ji]

Way too many cutters on gfs

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Way too many cutters on gfs

Right or wrong the gfs op doesn't develop great blocking and so the pattern isn't very good. 

ETA: I looped the h5 hemispheric and didn't even bother to look at the surface after that. Knew it wouldnt work.  It starts to build some nao ridging late but it's from an extension of the mid lat ridge. It fails in establishing a true nao block. The Atlantic ridge tries bit deflects and the whole process fails. Hopefully it's wrong. 

[Ji]

Right or wrong the gfs op doesn't develop great blocking and so the pattern isn't very good. 

Feels like the blocking took a big step back today from yesterdays great runs

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Right or wrong the gfs op doesn't develop great blocking and so the pattern isn't very good. 

Feels like the blocking took a big step back today from yesterdays great runs

Took a step back yea. Not a big one. The 18z gefs was fine actually. The EPS has degraded significantly though. 

[Bob Chill]

10 days ago this weekend looked like dung. Many posts about wasted Feb and no chance...

Even if the blocked N atl pattern doesn't come in textbook perfect, it's still likely to be a more conducive pattern than this weekend. We have some warm days next week before anything gets into a reasonable range. My hunch if we have another op for winter wx before the month is over. March is too far out of reach to worry much about. 

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Took a step back yea. Not a big one. The 18z gefs was fine actually. The EPS has degraded significantly though. 

The bigger issue to me the last several runs across guidance is the Pac look is more hostile in the LR. Can even see it on the CFS now. The largest + height anomalies are a bit further west towards the Aleutians and lower heights over AK and western Canada more pronounced.. We can have all the NA blocking we want but if the Pac goes to complete crap its going to be a lot tougher to knock down the ridge in the east.

[psuhoffman]

Overnight runs are still promising IMO for March.  The EPS took a big step in a positive direction.  Weakening the lower heights in western Canada and retrograding the trough in the Atlantic into the east coast...better representation of the 50/50 and excellent NAO blocking location. 

The GEPS is in second place with great blocking and 50/50 representation but the heights in western Canada are slightly less favorable and more ridging across the CONUS but its still a pattern I would take in a heartbeat.

The GEFS has flipped from carrying the torch for most of the last week to now being the one with the least favorable look.  Its not bad, blocking is "fine", everything is there...but muted some from its great looks the other day.  So whats going on...looking at the individual members about half have an amazing blocking pattern...and the other half have barely any blocking.  It seems they are split, and the split seems to happen early on.  Last night I noted that the gfs op failed in building the blocking early on when the initial north atlantic ridge attempted to retrograde into the NAO domain but instead was thwarted by the PV and "bounced" off back towards Scandinavia.   That seems to be the issue with 50 percent of the GEFS.  The other half pull off the retrograde of the atlantic ridge into north america and develop excellent high NAO blocking... that solution has more support across all guidance right now but there is enough disagreement that the failure of this is still an option.  

Heights are still generally high across the CONUS on all 3 but this isn't going to be a really cold pattern, although if the blocking comes to fruition I do think it will be chilly and colder then the mean now shows as there are very warm outliers skewing the mean high.  If the colder look is correct the temps end up lower.  But the type of pattern it could be is a big storm one.  The 1962 storm, since people are throwing that one around, was very marginal in temps...  that doesn't mean it can't snow in the coastal plain, parts of central and southern VA did VERY well with that because they got under the upper low, but places further north along the coastal plain had a lot of mixing and rain because that late in the year without true cold air in place the easterly fetch north of a cut off slow moving low wrecked the boundary layer.  The March 2013 storm was kind of a weak poor man's version of the 1962 storm...where places south of DC that got under the better dynamics from the H5 low did better then further north.  They were very similar storms in terms of evolution and pattern but the 1962 storm was MUCH more intense obviously.  March 58 is another example of the type of storm that can happen with that kind of blocking in march and the kind of outcome where getting under intense banding was necessary, and having a little bit of elevation helps a LOT.  Of course those 2 are the benchmark all time examples of march blocking storms so getting something to that extreme is unlikely.  But even more tame versions of those can be a lot of fun.  But expectations have to be in check...a 2 foot powder bomb is unlikely at this point.  Were probably going to need a good h5 track and to get under the ccb and utilize dynamic cooling to win.  But March is when that can work.   

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Overnight runs are still promising IMO for March.  The EPO took a big step in a positive direction.  Weakening the lower heights in western Canada and retrograding the trough in the Atlantic into the east coast...better representation of the 50/50 and excellent NAO blocking location. 

The GEPS is in second place with great blocking and 50/50 representation but the heights in western Canada are slightly less favorable and more ridging across the CONUS but its still a pattern I would take in a heartbeat.

The GEFS has flipped from carrying the torch for most of the last week to now being the one with the least favorable look.  Its not bad, blocking is "fine", everything is there...but muted some from its great looks the other day.  So whats going on...looking at the individual members about half have an amazing blocking pattern...and the other half have barely any blocking.  It seems they are split, and the split seems to happen early on.  Last night I noted that the gfs op failed in building the blocking early on when the initial north atlantic ridge attempted to retrograde into the NAO domain but instead was thwarted by the PV and "bounced" off back towards Scandinavia.   That seems to be the issue with 50 percent of the GEFS.  The other half pull off the retrograde of the atlantic ridge into north america and develop excellent high NAO blocking... that solution has more support across all guidance right now but there is enough disagreement that the failure of this is still an option.  

Heights are still generally high across the CONUS on all 3 but this isn't going to be a really cold pattern, although if the blocking comes to fruition I do think it will be chilly and colder then the mean now shows as there are very warm outliers skewing the mean high.  If the colder look is correct the temps end up lower.  But the type of pattern it could be is a big storm one.  The 1962 storm, since people are throwing that one around, was very marginal in temps...  that doesn't mean it can't snow in the coastal plain, parts of central and southern VA did VERY well with that because they got under the upper low, but places further north along the coastal plain had a lot of mixing and rain because that late in the year without true cold air in place the easterly fetch north of a cut off slow moving low wrecked the boundary layer.  The March 2013 storm was kind of a weak poor man's version of the 1962 storm...where places south of DC that got under the better dynamics from the H5 low did better then further north.  They were very similar storms in terms of evolution and pattern but the 1962 storm was MUCH more intense obviously.  March 58 is another example of the type of storm that can happen with that kind of blocking in march and the kind of outcome where getting under intense banding was necessary, and having a little bit of elevation helps a LOT.  Of course those 2 are the benchmark all time examples of march blocking storms so getting something to that extreme is unlikely.  But even more tame versions of those can be a lot of fun.  But expectations have to be in check...a 2 foot powder bomb is unlikely at this point.  Were probably going to need a good h5 track and to get under the ccb and utilize dynamic cooling to win.  But March is when that can work.   

Have kind of been neglecting the longer range with snow on our doorstep to track. But after reading some of the gloom and doom posts the last day or so thought I would look into it this morning a touch. And to be honest I can't understand the pessimism. As you said the GEFS has degraded a touch but looking at it was pretty obvious there was probably two camps warring over the solution. The one solution I would favor would be the one that heavily favors the EPS. And all I can say about the EPS is that is a great look to have in the NAtlantic. I don't care how bad the PAC may look I think the look showing up over the Greenland and 50/50 region  (basically a Rex block) would trump the PAC in this case. In fact I sort of like the PAC in the fact it puts a very active southern stream through our southern CONUS. Not a cold look by any means but at worst it would afford us serviceable cold within reach for any potential storm. I can very well see a moisture laden crawling bomb or two with this setup.