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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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Hi Y'all, I've been lurking for years. Don't know why it's taken so long to comment. A little background, I have a degree in Met, but life took me in a different direction, blah blah blah. I live in the N. side of Chicago, so you have some geographic prospective. Snow finally hit a moderate clip, that makes me happy. At this point, I usually stop looking at the models (except maybe the HRRR) and stick to nowcasting. Ratios have finally stepped up after a pixie dust situation. My biggest concern for double digit #s is what is going on in Iowa and the very sharp cutoff.  It looks like based on trajectory, the best hit might be slightly N. of Chicago. I'm not going to freak out yet, although I have a tendency to do that early on in a storm. My hope is, and models have been saying this all along, is that lake influence will intensify the band and bring the coverage in Cook county a little southward. Not the greatest lake enhancement scenario, but I've seen it happen dozens of times. What the heck happened to Alek btw??

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25 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

That third wave has a real nice tap of guif moisture. But as per the seasonal trends, everything simply shears to the east. No amplification allowed.

I'm going to lower my call with wave 1 to 2-4". Then ~2" for each of the next two waves. Nothing memorable. Snow pack thickening and stat padding is all she wrote.

Haha, good conservative call. I still think wave 3 will deliver a decent amount (3-7") under the right circumstances. A pretty strong jet streak and good moisture along the frontal boundary would probably help in creating deformation bands. 0z CMC looks pretty sweet too!

 

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   Mesoscale Discussion 0061
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0907 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of IA...southern WI...and northern IL

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 090307Z - 090900Z

   SUMMARY...A narrow band of moderate to heavy snow will likely
   produce snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour through the early
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough present over NE/KS
   will move eastward across the Upper Midwest overnight. Large-scale
   lift ahead of this trough has promoted a broad area of light to
   moderate snow extending from eastern SD to southern WI/northern IL.
   A strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across southern IA is
   focusing a low-level baroclinic zone across central IA as of 03Z.
   Related frontogenetic forcing should remain centered around 850 mb,
   and a narrow west-to-east oriented band of moderate to heavy snow
   has recently developed across central IA on the nose of the
   low-level jet. Snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour in this band
   will likely occur through the remainder of the evening and continue
   through the overnight hours. As the shortwave trough develops
   eastward, the moderate to heavy snow band will shift eastward into
   southern WI and northern IL (including the Chicago metro), mainly
   after 05Z.

   ..Gleason.. 02/09/2018
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Went from really optimistic earlier, to concerned now. HRRR has been hitting the northward shift very well, and it still looks like there room for it to go even a bit further north.

Could very well end up with a lull overnight, with highest totals around the IL/WI border and far S. WI looking more likely now. A large chunk of the WSW/WWA will likely bust across the DSM-DVN-LO CWA, with amounts north in S. WI now looking underdone.

Seasonal trends ftl.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Went from really optimistic earlier, to concerned now. HRRR has been hitting the northward shift very well, and it still looks like there room for it to go even a bit further north.

Could very well end up with a lull overnight, with highest totals around the IL/WI border and far S. WI looking more likely now. A large chunk of the WSW/WWA will likely bust across the DSM-DVN-LO CWA, with amounts north in S. WI now looking underdone.

Seasonal trends ftl.

I was noticing that as well. May struggle to earning criteria 

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I'm seeing some spots of darker blue pop up in southeastern Iowa on the national radar:

http://www.weather.gov/Radar

It doesn't look like much at all right now, but it could maybe help us out in the Chicago metro area in a few hours if it develops into something solid. Even if it were to stay as light to moderate snow, it would keep us from going into a total lull.

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26 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Yeah thankfully I had enough buffer for the north bias of these  WAA or else it would have been a Saukville special for sure

Well, I have to say I thought for sure this one would continue to trend south if anything, what with the existing snow cover, and being more of an overrunning event as opposed to cutters which are more prone to N/NW shifts.

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6 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Well, I have to say I thought for sure this one would continue to trend south if anything, what with the existing snow cover, and being more of an overrunning event as opposed to cutters which are more prone to N/NW shifts.

what's a cutter?  these overrunning situatons always scare me being on the south end.  A many of times those Palms in Saukville captured downs Souths forcasted heavier snows.

snowing for 2 hrs and not much to show for it.  Just south in racine looked to do well by the news crew feed down there.

 

Better flake size but very few falling now.  now we wait for the hopeful heavier stuff.

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Nice looking band through Madtown and much of southern WI. Everyone’s so quick to write this off... I still think we see some additional development as this progresses east and more moisture gets involved. Trends aren’t great right now, but models can’t be THAT far off... or could they?

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7 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

what's a cutter?  these overrunning situatons always scare me being on the south end.  A many of times those Palms in Saukville captured downs Souths forcasted heavier snows.

snowing for 2 hrs and not much to show for it.  Just south in racine looked to do well by the news crew feed down there.

 

Better flake size but very few falling now.  now we wait for the hopeful heavier stuff.

A more general term for a panhandle hook, any SW origin storm that cuts north of east.

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3 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Nice looking band through Madtown and much of southern WI. Everyone’s so quick to write this off... I still think we see some additional development as this progresses east and more moisture gets involved. Trends aren’t great right now, but models can’t be THAT far off... or could they?

I wouldn’t write off limping to 6”, but if you were hoping for double digits (as I think we all were), you can kiss that goodbye. 

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3 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Nice looking band through Madtown and much of southern WI. Everyone’s so quick to write this off... I still think we see some additional development as this progresses east and more moisture gets involved. Trends aren’t great right now, but models can’t be THAT far off... or could they?

Northern tier of IL counties are still in fine shape.  Like I mentioned a few nights ago, these WAA wing events love the WI/IL border for some strange reason.  Good chance you get 10"+ tonight/early tomorrow.

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