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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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24 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I was wrong.

LOT just extended the warning to 6pm

Yeah, odd. Radar seems to be backfilling a bit to the NW as a another wave of energy rides up the boundary. Be nice if we could get that lake enhancement band to join forces with this wave. May not be over just yet....

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9 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said:

I am watching the radar returns from DTX and it seems like most of the bandit has been setting up over the Flint area I69, is that where it was supposed to be or more north?  Just curious.

That was depicted well by the HiRes models. As we progress through the morning into the early afternoon that banding will become transient and shift NE. New regenerative banding will set up south of 94 and become the dominate band. Thus the warning locations. HRRR/NAM has a good handle for the most part on this .

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29 minutes ago, Baum said:

Yeah, odd. Radar seems to be backfilling a bit to the NW as a another wave of energy rides up the boundary. Be nice if we could get that lake enhancement band to join forces with this wave. May not be over just yet....

Some of the nicest rates of the storm by me now from this backfilling. Thought I'd end up with ~6ish but looks like this could drop a few more if it kicks up. I'm right on the northern end of where the snow keeps on developing. Glad I didn't shovel the driveway a few hours ago. 

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34 minutes ago, GreenBo said:

That was depicted well by the HiRes models. As we progress through the morning into the early afternoon that banding will become transient and shift NE. New regenerative banding will set up south of 94 and become the dominate band. Thus the warning locations. HRRR/NAM has a good handle for the most part on this .

OK, thanks.  I'm about 15 miles north of I-69, so was just wondering.  I appreciate the feedback

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34 minutes ago, GreenBo said:

That was depicted well by the HiRes models. As we progress through the morning into the early afternoon that banding will become transient and shift NE. New regenerative banding will set up south of 94 and become the dominate band. Thus the warning locations. HRRR/NAM has a good handle for the most part on this .

OK, thanks.  I'm about 15 miles north of I-69, so was just wondering.  I appreciate the feedback

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12z GGEM looking really good for the GTA for the second wave, though a thin layer of warmth at 850mb cutting it really close to home. However, the HP across Quebec should allow for some CAD. Large scale differences at H5 are creating differences in placement and strength between the GFS and GGEM for that second wave. Let's see! 

 

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25 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

12z GGEM looking really good for the GTA for the second wave, though a thin layer of warmth at 850mb cutting it really close to home. However, the HP across Quebec should allow for some CAD. Large scale differences at H5 are creating differences in placement and strength between the GFS and GGEM for that second wave. Let's see! 

 

CBC did actually mention a chance of some freezing rain. Surface temps would be pretty cold so it may accreted quite effectively for a brief period. 

Pretty good rates here right now, enough to reduce visibility but flakes are small. 

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