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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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Though this is still a few days out and models will likely go back and forth due to multiple moving pieces, I have a good feeling this maybe our first widespread overrunning event across much of the sub-forum. H5 looks decent enough to allow for some amplification as it moves east. The SE ridge nearby may cause some mixing/rain issues in some areas, but fine details like that will become clearer once the current system moves out of the region. The CMC may have a better handle at the northern stream than the GFS, given its origins but let's see. 

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I don't think this thing probably isn't going much(if any) further north than it is now. That high pressing in over Canada is going to do a fine job keeping this thing south, if not push it more south. Also of note, while there is certainly warning criteria snow, it may fall over a long enough duration that they'll just broad brush advisories with no warnings needed, just a thought.

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Back over the weekend, felt that the late week period (not even including Sat-Sun at that point) held the most potential of all the possible snow events this week. When multiple waves over the top of a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone work out, it can be really nice. Just gotta hope that the positioning doesn't change too much so we finally get a really good event in the heart of the Chicago metro. Still of course enough time for changes, but I like that today's 12z guidance improved even from previous suites.

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14 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

If the higher amounts somehow end up verifying, (long ways to go obviously) some areas could be near normal on the season for snowfall. 

Quite possible.  Then the question is whether the favorable pattern keeps going or the deficits build again.

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15 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

If this all pans out, I could have 20” or more of snow OTG by the end of the weekend :lol:

Your highest February depth was probably in 2007 when we were in LAF, right?  I think we peaked around the 17th with a small system that occurred a few days after the big one.

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Two main takeaways from the 12z euro.

1.  Nails northern Iowa to WI/IL border to southern Michigan with first major wave.

2.  Plenty of energy hanging back, more than previous runs, but it's still stretched out and disheveled.  There's a good bit more snow in there for someone if the energy can come together sufficiently.

ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_132.thumb.png.1b41dbee24f4eb60b871a227cd4aa271.png

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1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

As mentioned, that high pressure to the north is something to watch. Just hope it doesn’t have too much of an effect

The initial band of snow is basically 2 days from onset, so hopefully there won't be too much shifting with that.

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This is simply BUFKIT data using 18Z GFS for KDPA, not something to take as gospel.. but the gif is DGZ overlayed with omega, along with corresponding soundings on right from Thursday night to Sunday. Best omega/DGZ combo looks to be 10-12Z Friday and 18Z ish Saturday. Picture also shows some wider spacing between isentropes for Friday morning which could imply low EPV in the saturated column, thus releasing some possible slantwise convection in banding. 

Also, using 'max temp in profile' on bufkit snow ratios should start off healthy 20-25:1 and drop down to 15:1 by end of the event. Looking at cobb and different ratio possibilities 18Z GFS gives out a foot for DPA regardless of which method you use. Hopefully NAM trends a smidge north.
weekend.thumb.gif.ea3614d12e3beae569fd57cd19e9df3e.gifCropperCapture[6].bmp

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

While the potential event looks good on guidance with big dog potential, it's hard to get too interested in anything outside of 6 hours out from an event this winter. See me Thursday evening, then I'll be sold.

Exactly, lol

Since you mentioned big dog... if you subtract the modest qpf from tonight/tomorrow, the max band for this storm as currently progged is near to perhaps a hair above 1". That is some good precip, but if it doesn't trend wetter, then we will need solid ratios to try to get this into real big dog territory.  I guess "big dog" is a subjective term though.  At least wind won't really be a factor to hold down ratios... it's gonna come down to microphysics.  

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Exactly, lol

Since you mentioned big dog... if you subtract the modest qpf from tonight/tomorrow, the max band for this storm as currently progged is near to perhaps a hair above 1". That is some good precip, but if it doesn't trend wetter, then we will need solid ratios to try to get this into real big dog territory.  I guess "big dog" is a subjective term though.  At least wind won't really be a factor to hold down ratios... it's gonna come down to microphysics.  

We'll get some good clarity once this current storm moves out of the region. Wave comes onshore tomorrow night in B.C. and we should have partial sampling tomorrow night and full sampling by Thursday 12z. The initial wave will move through Alberta and into the Midwest fairly quickly while relatively holding itself in-tact. Would not surprise me if parts of Iowa into Illinois see 4-8" out of this. What matters after is how the s/w moves through the region and interacts with the PV. 

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On 2/6/2018 at 8:36 PM, Hoosier said:

Exactly, lol

Since you mentioned big dog... if you subtract the modest qpf from tonight/tomorrow, the max band for this storm as currently progged is near to perhaps a hair above 1". That is some good precip, but if it doesn't trend wetter, then we will need solid ratios to try to get this into real big dog territory.  I guess "big dog" is a subjective term though.  At least wind won't really be a factor to hold down ratios... it's gonna come down to microphysics.  

Don't get me started on ratios...

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