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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Strong WAA loves to overperform whether it's a cutter, or these WAA wing type events.  GFS has been pretty good this winter, but it was downright awful with this system.

Yeah. NAM had the right idea and it will likely end up too far south with it as well. Haven’t completely tossed in the towel, but I am swinging it around my head. 

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Yeah. NAM had the right idea and it will likely end up too far south with it as well. Haven’t completely tossed in the towel, but I am swinging it around my head. 

That tail of enhanced snows from northeast to west-central IA is moving eastward at a good clip now, and the northward bleed in northern IL should be about done.  In fact it will probably even build back a bit south as that tail approaches.  Think Dekalb to Naperville and points north will be safe from the slot, and will probably get into some great banding later tonight.

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That tail of enhanced snows from northeast to west-central IA is moving eastward at a good clip now, and the northward bleed in northern IL should be about done.  In fact it will probably even build back a bit south as that tail approaches.  Think Dekalb to Naperville and points north will be safe from the slot, and will probably get into some great banding later tonight.

I sure hope so.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

That tail of enhanced snows from northeast to west-central IA is moving eastward at a good clip now, and the northward bleed in northern IL should be about done.  In fact it will probably even build back a bit south as that tail approaches.  Think Dekalb to Naperville and points north will be safe from the slot, and will probably get into some great banding later tonight.

I was also curious about that back end of the snow. If it holds together, everyone north of the Kankakee River is gonna end wave 1 with a bang. I'm also still curious about the precip developing over extreme northeastern Illinois...

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Went from really optimistic earlier, to concerned now. HRRR has been hitting the northward shift very well, and it still looks like there room for it to go even a bit further north.

Could very well end up with a lull overnight, with highest totals around the IL/WI border and far S. WI looking more likely now. A large chunk of the WSW/WWA will likely bust across the DSM-DVN-LO CWA, with amounts north in S. WI now looking underdone.

Seasonal trends ftl.

Trends on the HRRR have been brutal, especially closer to the I-80 corridor in LOT's area.  I think metro area still does well but the shifting has to stop.

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Measuring the snow here we have a solid 4 to 4.5" so far and snowing at a very good clip, very good flake size too.  Looks golden for the next few hours here.  Thinking we will make a run at the higher amounts around here on the order of 7 to perhaps 8" by tomorrow morning when it ends.....  

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Models have been suggesting that the snow band attempts to get north of here later, but sort of hits a wall with continued development on the southern flank.  Now we see how that plays out. 

Yeah as that band in Iowa digs east-southeast the southern edge of the WAA wing should maintain and even build back south a bit.  Already seeing signs of that near Sterling, Jackson CO IA filling in and enhancing nicely, and now some new development south of Cedar Rapids.

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7 minutes ago, Justin said:

Measuring the snow here we have a solid 4 to 4.5" so far and snowing at a very good clip, very good flake size too.  Looks golden for the next few hours here.  Thinking we will make a run at the higher amounts around here on the order of 7 to perhaps 8" by tomorrow morning when it ends.....  

Nice, that's a pretty solid event.

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