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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Overall, this is what I was expecting from wave one, perhaps even better. We've received about 2-3" I'd say. If we could end up with 2" per wave, I'd be happy. How's wave two looking? EC calling for 2".

Depends what model you look at cause there all different. The latest NAM is just down right terrible for both waves and would be a disappointing storm if it were true. The latest RAP has a good widespread 2-4" tomorrow, as does the latest RGEM. This event is not within HRRR's range just yet. 

Wave 3 is still up for grabs. The latest RGEM has some WAA creeping in which would mean a change over to some freezing rain or sleet. Would be a bummer if that happened. Starting to lose optimism about this now. :(

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chicago NWS has some concerns about tonight

 

this pattern shows little mercy to forecasters with subtle, low
amplitude waves in close proximity to each other and to boot
these low amplitude waves can challenge models at times. The next
such wave is spreading east across IA and taking aim on our CWA
later tonight into Sat morning. Regional radar imagery shows
a large swath of snow, some of it quite formidable at this time.
Shortwave trough responsible for this snow is backing the low/mid
level flow and resulting in a strengthening f-gen band again.
Like last night, guidance suggest this wave will shear out and
weaken overnight into Saturday morning, however, it isn`t uncommon
for models to weaken f-gen circulations too quickly and am
concerned that the area of snow may be slower to dissipate than
what guidance suggests. Planning to nudge QPF and pops up a bit
overnight into Saturday morning, still planning to keep forecast
snowfall in the 1-3" range, though if this wave and resultant
f-gen is slower to weaken than progged wouldn`t be hard to
envision seeing some heavier totals where banding features train.
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Nice banding out in central Iowa.  Ankeny and DSM down to 1/4 mile, with several other locations 1/2 to 3/4 mile.  Looks like HRRR/RAP have a good handle on things.  RGEM too far south for what's going on now.  Osceola to Clinton/Maquoketa look good for 3-4", with the possibility of more if LSRs and heavier banding works out.  Hawkeyeville should see some pretty nice snowfall before the main band settles a bit southeastward.  Probably a good 2-3" there.  Wouldn't be surprised to see that band hang up a little longer than modeled and dump even more on the CR area.  Gonna stick with 2-3" for here/QC, but if that band does end up hanging up a bit we'll probably end up with more like 1-2".

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice banding out in central Iowa.  Ankeny and DSM down to 1/4 mile, with several other locations 1/2 to 3/4 mile.  Looks like HRRR/RAP have a good handle on things.  RGEM too far south for what's going on now.  Osceola to Clinton/Maquoketa look good for 3-4", with the possibility of more if LSRs and heavier banding works out.  Hawkeyeville should see some pretty nice snowfall before the main band settles a bit southeastward.  Probably a good 2-3" there.  Wouldn't be surprised to see that band hang up a little longer than modeled and dump even more on the CR area.  Gonna stick with 2-3" for here/QC, but if that band does end up hanging up a bit we'll probably end up with more like 1-2".

Given how things are still progressing east through DSM, and have pushed down towards the IA/MO border, I'm leaning the HRRR is too far NW. You should be locked and loaded for a decent snow.

 

EDIT: 3z HRRR actually has you in the main axis pretty much.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Given how things are still progressing east through DSM, and have pushed down towards the IA/MO border, I'm leaning the HRRR is too far NW. You should be locked and loaded for a decent snow.

 

EDIT: 3z HRRR actually has you in the main axis pretty much.

Gonna be close but I'm gonna stick with the Osceola to Clinton/Maquoketa for the heaviest totals.  The main swath of enhanced snow is moving pretty slowly southeastward.  The stuff out ahead of that main band is 1.5-3 mile vis type snows.  Think we'll get into that main band later on tonight, say after 3-5am, but I think it will spend the most time along that axis mentioned above.  Still think we should be good for 2-3" here, and 3-4" with isolated higher amounts in that main axis.

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Was in and out of snow all day yesterday, until the evening when we finally got a band to sit over us for a couple of hours. Pounded snow and things quickly went down hill. It was awesome. We've had at least some snow every day since last Saturday night, so wintry appeal has been high. Maybe another 1-2" tonight/overnight to cap things off.   

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