February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Ginx snewx]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the GFS is epic for the Maine mtns. Holy sh*t. Congrats Ginxy and his brokeback ski trip.

Got that 2013 vibe heading into March. We will deal with a highly anomalous pattern, models will suck. Look at the animated DT PVU  pressure and wind and how that west wind abruptly turns east. Buckle up kids and for God's sake don't take anything the GFS puts out at the surface verbatim

[Hazey]

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let's be honest, the GFS is a hot occluded mess.

Bands of showers/snow showers and breezy for days and days...edge of your seat stuff

[CoastalWx]

5-10" qpf OF SHOWERS?

[CoastalWx]

Ensembles sure are tasty.

[Hazey]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

5-10" qpf OF SHOWERS?

Tropical

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles sure are tasty.

Gotta go with those at this point obviously...good that they are tasty rather than not.

[dryslot]

[Typhoon Tip]

From what I'm seeing in this operational GFS cycle ... the thickness layout is getting mangled for cold air prior to the initial onset of the -NAO's effecting the circulation ... 

The mid levels have really ample mechanics for some fantastic slow moving Miller B'easts but ... the lax surface thicnkness gradients are normalizing the baroclinic zones too much for coherently focused surface lows...  This looks like a page out of any early April -NAO more so than March 1

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Not to many folks would care to much for that 12z GFS run, Quite torchy.

Op runs have been that way for days - AN minima D1 thru D16 each time.

March 2010?

0.6" snow that month, with 28 days AN temps, month averaged 7.7° AN, milder than 2012.

[Sugarloaf1989]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Couldn't care less about Op.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Couldn't care less about Op.

Nobody should, But if had snow we would have had 5 pages of post.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

In my younger years i would be tearing up the off trail back country with those totals.

Probably fighting your way thru/around bent-over trees and broken limbs, after all that paste.

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

Probably fighting your way thru/around bent-over trees and broken limbs, after all that paste.

Pine trees that look like they were 5' tall then you realize that was the top of a 20'....................

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nobody should, But if had snow we would have had 5 pages of post.

Sure, but I wouldn't feel any differently.

Check ensembles at this range...NAO still there?

Yep.

Cool.

Couldn't care less about the OP.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Isotherm Tom, what do you think?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Couldn't care less about Op.

I am happy you are one of few who properly say that statement.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Isotherm Tom, what do you think?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I am happy you are one of few who properly say that statement.

Yea, so many could care less.

We speak English properly.

We fluent.

[Hazey]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I am happy you are one of few who properly say that statement.

I could care less how he says it...LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Hazey said:

I could care less how he says it...LOL

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

I could care less how he says it...LOL

You care TOO much about it then. 

AND...nobody should care about gfs op solutions. Stick to eps until further notice.

[Hazey]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You care TOO much about it then. 

AND...nobody should care about gfs op solutions. Stick to eps until further notice.

 thanks skippy. Will do

[mreaves]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, so many could care less.

We speak English properly.

We fluent.

I'm fluent but not affluent 

[CTWeatherFreak]

14 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'm fluent but not affluent 

And the Euro op looks difluent

[SnowHole413]

2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

And the Euro op looks difluent

swatted

[Hoth]

Euro op suppresses verbatim, but still blows up a nice ocean storm. Let's see what the ensembles say...

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro says shunt is real .. and GFS rains for days. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Pine trees that look like they were 5' tall then you realize that was the top of a 20'....................

My first year in N. Maine, I led our 3-man boundary maintenance crew in late March. (1st man locates line and cuts brush, 2nd finishes brushing and blazes trees, 3rd runs the paint can.)  With 4-6' of snowpack, walking between semi-hidden fir saplings could be hazardous, and when I'd disappear, my axe-man (native of Riviere-Bleu, PQ) would say in his best Franglais: "You make foxhole for German army!"  Must be even more fun when one is on a sled.

And wow, is the GFS wet, though mainly out past 100 hr.  Hope that means white as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro shows more than that... 

It shows a problem with a handling of the whole NAO construct.  It's breaking it down fast ... too fast for the ideas folks have in mind, really. 

The retrogression from southern Greenland to almost purely integrated into the mid-latitudes over SE Canada in just 2.5 to 3 days is pretty f'n fantastic for one, but... the model is not showing much interest in this thing really being a pattern drive on this run. You know ..in the fun spirit of anthropomorphism ...it's like it has to admit that it has to deal with it and is trying to throw it away as quickly as possible.    

I will say though ..I have noticed this subtly getting more obvious spanning every cycle now for two days - this tendency to shrink the longevity.  

Sometimes, .. you see this happen. Then, the block ends up more like the original appeal and lasting longer.  Could see that happening. The speed in which the model moves that block en masse so fast across the N arc of the Atlantic Basin seems correctable.  If not, what you got there is a bully block careening SW and mashing the storm tack too far S, followed by spring pattern in the extended... replete with the spaghetti flow type that features weak gradients. 

That part of my sardonic humor last night that has some merit (all humor does ...) is that it's all fragile in the guidance.  And it should be... it's the f'n over-rated index of all indexes in play here. 

The upshot is just that, the uncertainty.  The block could correct, and a slower, pinned bomb could easily still be in there -