USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 I think confidence is increasing in my map, will wait to make adjustments if needed after the 00z runs tonight. I think warning snows end up happening in the WWA right now and then the WWA gets moved towards ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Edit: beaten to it! Take em up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m anxiously awaiting the Thunderbird model. Canadians given us 3 to 5. Americans dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Canadians given us 3 to 5. Americans dusting to an inch. Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m anxiously awaiting the Thunderbird model. Thunderbird is 0.0 for all of CT, 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 What is the HRDPS one tropical tidbits? Anyways thats also a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Thunderbird is 0.0 for all of CT, 18Z run Not good. Thunderstruck nailed the blizzard and was the most west model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 FIRST CALL: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/lights-snows-likely-monday-night.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Not good. Thundershark nailed the blizzard and was the most west model. I know nothing about its validity for winter weather and its accuracy, it's still in expirmental mode, i wouldnt base it off of one storm. It might be just as reliable as the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: I know nothing about its validity for winter weather and its accuracy, it's still in expirmental mode, i wouldnt base it off of one storm. It might be just as reliable as the RPM. I hope. Plus the west trend is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 My gut feeling is that the 18Z RGEM is overdone and will back off some come 00z, hopefully im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 HRDPS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 That's the high res rgem. Like the reggie equivalent of the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Foxboro bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 So it seems like I've been to this rodeo before. The NAM is probably going to come almost all the way west and drill the .75" line back to almost a BAF-ASH/EEN, with 1.0" ORH-BED and 1.5" close to the Canal.. Then, 12z tomorrow, it lops 1/3 off those numbers and then the it goes on to verifies reasonably well.. we'll see. Could also be mimicking that rodeo .. but the above seems to play out over and over and over again with these needle threader deals that have such narrow margins for error a slight wiggle or additional input parameter moves the gradient west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 40 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think confidence is increasing in my map, will wait to make adjustments if needed after the 00z runs tonight. I think warning snows end up happening in the WWA right now and then the WWA gets moved towards ORH. No fence sitting with you James, gotta appreciate a man with conviction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Crazy how these progressive flows can wreak havoc with guidance right up until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FIRST CALL: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/01/lights-snows-likely-monday-night.html Who is the we in we here at EMAWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Who is the we in we here at EMAWX Me, myself, I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Who is the we in we here at EMAWX There’s a big team behind the scenes crunching data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Who is the we in we here at EMAWX EMAWX has a burgeoning staff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So it seems like I've been to this rodeo before. The NAM is probably going to come almost all the way west and drill the .75" line back to almost a BAF-ASH/EEN, with 1.0" ORH-BED and 1.5" close to the Canal.. Then, 12z tomorrow, it lops 1/3 off those numbers and then the it goes on to verifies reasonably well.. we'll see. Could also be mimicking that rodeo .. but the above seems to play out over and over and over again with these needle threader deals that have such narrow margins for error a slight wiggle or additional input parameter moves the gradient west. Even at 1/3 off (the usual NAM discount) I would be shocked at numbers that high. But then again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Crazy how these progressive flows can wreak havoc with guidance right up until go time. Esp in La Niña it seems. It makes sense though because we tend to get much tighter geopotential gradients....the opposite tends to happen in El Niño with the bagginess of the geopotential heights in the south and not much arctic PV anomaly in canada during Niño. 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So it seems like I've been to this rodeo before. The NAM is probably going to come almost all the way west and drill the .75" line back to almost a BAF-ASH/EEN, with 1.0" ORH-BED and 1.5" close to the Canal.. Then, 12z tomorrow, it lops 1/3 off those numbers and then the it goes on to verifies reasonably well.. we'll see. Could also be mimicking that rodeo .. but the above seems to play out over and over and over again with these needle threader deals that have such narrow margins for error a slight wiggle or additional input parameter moves the gradient west. This definitely feels a bit like you describe. We're running pretty thin on time but we've still seen it happen before this close in and the strong trend has already been established with every run during the day today...so you almost expect the NAM to put up a 1-spot (an inch of qpf) for BOS this 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Esp in La Niña it seems. It makes sense though because we tend to get much tighter geopotential gradients....the opposite tends to happen in El Niño with the bagginess of the geopotential heights in the south and not much arctic PV anomaly in canada during Niño. This definitely feels a bit like you describe. We're running pretty thin on time but we've still seen it happen before this close in and the strong trend has already been established with every run during the day today...so you almost expect the NAM to put up a 1-spot (an inch of qpf) for BOS this 00z run. Exactly....el nino is more predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 We currently have a broad surface low with pressures as low as 1016mb off the west coast of Florida with a frontal zone over southwest Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 First call : It might be nothing, might be light, might be moderate but I can say with certainty it won't be a blizzard (I think). Waiting until the last model run before the storm to make a final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: First call : It might be nothing, might be light, might be moderate but I can say with certainty it won't be a blizzard (I think). Waiting until the last model run before the storm to make a final call. Who does that? Most folks I have seen post maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 NAM looks like it's backing off the sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Happy hour ended at 7pm. NAM was out of money so it's starting to sober up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 21z SREF Plumes are a general 3" from the CT River to 6-7" in SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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