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Rtd208

February 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Some posters are more worried about criticizing others than actual meteorology. 

It's okay to be critical of someone else's thoughts, but some are downright disparaging. 

This is gold jerry.

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2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

This is gold jerry.

Let's be honest, if I had posted earlier that the upcoming pattern was marginal at best and that this probably wasn't going to work out, he would have had the same reaction. 

Sometimes you need to look at pattern recognition. If this storm misses us it won't be because it cut to our West.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Let's be honest, if I had posted earlier that the upcoming pattern was marginal at best and that this probably wasn't going to work out, he would have had the same reaction. 

Sometimes you need to look at pattern recognition. If this storm misses us it won't be because it cut to our West.

I was just breaking your balls dont worry. 

 

To be fair, you did claim yesterday that the euro showed a cutter which "fit the pattern". 

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Just now, BxEngine said:

I was just breaking your balls dont worry. 

 

To be fair, you did claim yesterday that the euro showed a cutter which "fit the pattern". 

Yes I did say that, but I was referring to the cutter which occurs first, to setup the 50/50 block. I am more confident today that there will be a storm, but I am worried about the block being so strong that it doesn't allow the storm to gain any latitude at all. If you ask me, the setup at H5 looks eerily similar to February 5-6, 2010.

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Regardless if it snows or not, there's going to be some interesting weather around here in the next couple weeks. 

Don't expect a lamb like start to March when the blocking is off the charts like this. I too have major coastal flooding concerns. 

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1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Your posts are very predictable 

Let him get in his 5 posts so we don’t have to hear him like a broken record 

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes I did say that, but I was referring to the cutter which occurs first, to setup the 50/50 block. I am more confident today that there will be a storm, but I am worried about the block being so strong that it doesn't allow the storm to gain any latitude at all. If you ask me, the setup at H5 looks eerily similar to February 5-6, 2010.

sounds good - February 2010 - snowiest month in NYC history 36.9 inches - hope it verifies for you

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

sounds good - February 2010 - snowiest month in NYC history 36.9 inches - hope it verifies for you

I specifically said February 5-6, 2010, not an entire month. How stupid would that be?

NYC did just as well as I did in that storm.

Image result for February 5-6 2010

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It's been awhile, but the EPS mean finally has a +500 meter Greenland block with energy running underneath. This one is coming during a full moon with the highest astronomical tides of the month.

eps_z500a_noram_27.thumb.png.a31c2a864af0d60caaab31e37cc45706.png

eps_mslpa_noram_29.thumb.png.a5a9e73951263efd399817b38c605fed.png

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It's been a while, but we are finally getting a +500 meter Greenland block with energy getting forced underneath. This one is coming during a full moon with the highest astronomical tides of the month.

eps_z500a_noram_27.thumb.png.a31c2a864af0d60caaab31e37cc45706.png

eps_mslpa_noram_29.thumb.png.a5a9e73951263efd399817b38c605fed.png

 

 

 

We could have what I have been calling the landscape storm. A coastal flood event on a magnitude where there is inundation flooding. Millions of dollars of salt intolerant replacement plants could be killed. My big thing after sandy was using salt tolerant plants as replacements. This was not done in 90% of cases. Obviously another sandy caliber event would take another tropical hit so we aren’t looking at that. But something with low level major flooding that does cause inundation will be a major test for all resiliency projects. 

As far as snow I keep pushing the elevation thing. We saw that in March 10 with elevations above 2k in the Catskills seeing 40” 

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16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We could have what I have been calling the landscape storm. A coastal flood event on a magnitude where there is inundation flooding. Millions of dollars of salt intolerant replacement plants could be killed. My big thing after sandy was using salt tolerant plants as replacements. This was not done in 90% of cases. Obviously another sandy caliber event would take another tropical hit so we aren’t looking at that. But something with low level major flooding that does cause inundation will be a major test for all resiliency projects. 

As far as snow I keep pushing the elevation thing. We saw that in March 10 with elevations above 2k in the Catskills seeing 40” 

Since the astronomical tides are so high, all we need is a 3 foot surge to get to low end Halloween 91 major coastal flooding levels.

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3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

this is an ominous post for snow lovers

Anytime you have prolonged Easterly flow, coastal flooding is an issue. Add in astronomically high tides and it's a major concern. That doesn't mean the coast won't see snow, but I agree that the snow threat for this storm is more focused for the interior. Whenever you have a retrograding storm, not to mention in March, warm air is always going to be an issue. It just matters how far West the storm eventually tracks.

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10 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

this is an ominous post for snow lovers

not ruling out snow but coastal flooding is going to cause more damage if this works out

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6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Such a strong block keeping precip away, at least what this solution shows.  

This is why I said 2/5/10. It wasn't to cause hype, it was just to say that I could see a similar setup, and the EPS agrees. The difference is we're in March and not early February, so the places with the most snow in this setup would be the higher elevations North and West of DC with very little snow in DC proper and Southern NJ.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This is why I said 2/5/10. It wasn't to cause hype, it was just to say that I could see a similar setup, and the EPS agrees. The difference is we're in March and not early February, so the places with the most snow in this setup would be the higher elevations North and West of DC with very little snow in DC proper and Southern NJ.

I agree that if we are to get a big storm here locally with heavy precip, it will be when the block weakens 

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14 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I agree that if we are to get a big storm here locally with heavy precip, it will be when the block weakens 

folks should hope it's the 2nd storm b/c there is virtually no cold air next week (not saying there will be cold air for the 2nd storm if said storm even comes along) but doubt models change much on temps for the next 5-7 days at this point.

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39 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

not ruling out snow but coastal flooding is going to cause more damage if this works out

You typically have a very good, yet quiet, handle on the data....so maybe it was your lack of enthusiasm that resonated 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

This is what the 12z EPS looks like in terms of QPF for this time period.

5a907bda7362a.png

 

I'm sorry, but that is actually a horrible description of the 12z EPS. There is greater than 0 precip in this sub-forum during that timeframe on the 12z EPS mean. I'm posting so folks can see for themselves. Hour 120 first, 240 second.

bHwX843.png

gVIYCQt.png

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9 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

I'm sorry, but that is actually a horrible description of the 12z EPS. There is greater than 0 precip in this sub-forum during that timeframe on the 12z EPS mean. I'm posting so folks can see for themselves. Hour 120 first, 240 second.

bHwX843.png

gVIYCQt.png

 

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

I'm sorry, but that is actually a horrible description of the 12z EPS. There is greater than 0 precip in this sub-forum during that timeframe on the 12z EPS mean. I'm posting so folks can see for themselves. Hour 120 first, 240 second.

bHwX843.png

gVIYCQt.png

Something must have glitched because when I load the same image now on SV I get this one instead.

5a9092701aa57.png

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4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Alot of destruction with that storm. No thanks.

If we're worried about destruction nobody should be rooting for any storm. Fact, people die in blizzards. 

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