mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Thats 2" Kuchera. ...maybe. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Decent. Trending the right way again. Given h5 I expect some better results in EPS. This was very close to a better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Nice small event. Another run over run improvement from a global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Euro was really close to a nice enhanced band influenced by both the front and coastal. Nothing close to the ealier tease closed ull runs but we could get a warning level event with what the euro showed. A little more west or even just better jet support and we're all happy. Nobody would be upset with either the gfs or euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro was really close to a nice enhanced band influenced by both the front and coastal. Nothing close to the ealier tease closed ull runs but we could get a warning level event with what the euro showed. A little more west or even just better jet support and we're all happy. Nobody would be upset with either the gfs or euro tonight. Gfs kuchere had me at 1.3" and euro at 3". I wish it was the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs kuchere had me at 1.3" and euro at 3". I wish it was the other way around. I thought the gfs had you at 2" based on wxbell panels. Silly picking that stuff apart anyways. We're back to trending better at least. We have a good 48 hours to hope something decent holds together. Cmc has something now instead of nothing. Ukie looked ok through 72. I don't know what happens after precip wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought the gfs had you at 2" based on wxbell panels. Silly picking that stuff apart anyways. We're back to trending better at least. We have a good 48 hours to hope something decent holds together. Cmc has something now instead of nothing. Ukie looked ok through 72. I don't know what happens after precip wise Ukie jumped from nothing to on 12z to .01-.02 on 0z. Where's JI when you need him. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Decent. Trending the right way again. Given h5 I expect some better results in EPS. This was very close to a better outcome. EPS was okay... not great. Only 14 out of the 51 members through Day 5 gave DCA 2 or more inches, and a couple of those were borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Wow... LWX not impressed at all in their AFD... calling for less than 0.1 QPF and worst case scenario a marginal advisory event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The trough is digging farther to the west initially on the overnight EPS which is allowing more room for the coastal to develop closer to the coast later on. This is reflected on the precip maps with a decent shift westward of the heavier precip off the coast. If I were living on the coast I would be paying attention because they are just a small shift or two from a moderate event at this point (6+ inches). Depending on timing of the coastal vs the arctic front as it progresses through our region it may also help enhance snowfall into the cities before that gets shut off when they get too deep into the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 6z models Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Not going to break it down but IMO the overnight EPS is hinting pretty strongly that it wants to break down the hostile PAC in the longer range and revert back to a -EPO, +PNA. Also if in fact we see a -NAO (not a sure thing by any means) and also in consideration of the tendencies of the EPS to hold on to and over play the South West trough/energy this winter I think the very end of the extended (roughly day 13-15) would be worth watching. But we are talking the extended on the EPS which hasn't been exactly stellar in that regards and one run to boot so take this for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 52 minutes ago, Ji said: 6z models Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Every snow map posted last night showed a big dry spot over your house. Not one model during the giddy talk was giving you more than an inch. You've become dt and Leesburg is now Chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, this works. Potential for a little more upside. Not much given the setup but 3-6" is in the realm. Hopefully this isn't a blip but a trend. Nam was on its way to something similar. Navgem is even better. The Ji shield in full effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 hours ago, mitchnick said: Thats 2" Kuchera. ...maybe. lol Different model same Ji shield....hmmm coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Icon 6z....cant make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018011406&fh=96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon 6z....cant make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018011406&fh=96 I don’t know...other than it’s 0z run it’s been showing the same hole for this event on every run for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Maybe I'm missing something but last night's runs all look like the mini snows we've had so far this year, not an actual snowstorm or significant event. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Feeling like a clipper/Miller b coastal jumper coming to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I don’t know...other than it’s 0z run it’s been showing the same hole for this event on every run for our region. Should we be sweating what the ICON shows? I get it if it’s GFS, EURO, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Feels/looks like a solid 1-3 inch region wide event shaping up with the usual winners and losers. Todays runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Also don't underestimate the potential for some of the moisture be lost to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Also don't underestimate the potential for some of the moisture be lost to rain If you and Ji got into the octagon who wins that fight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 I'm continuing with my attempt to better undertand the levels between surface and 500 mb and where the moisture comes from. For the overnight runs, I've been trying to figure out what causes the area of relatively heavy precip in VA / NC. The best explanation I've found is at the 925 mb level. At this level, but not at levels above or below it, a center of circulation forms with onshore winds. I believe the oneshore winds at this level transport the moisture inland and cause the area of higher precipitation. If you look at different runs, the precip max ends up wherever this center goes. It was relatively far north on the 00z GFS, and more south on the 18z and 06z GFS. Folks near DC and Baltimore want it to be farther north. There is no corresponding center of circulation at the surface though. I suspect that it's because it would be hard to form one over land, but if this were to occur over the ocean we'd see one. E.g. in the old Euro runs, where the trough was less positively tilted, this center of circulation became the coastal. Now that the trough has become more positively tilted, the 925 mb circulation doesn't always make it to the coast, so we don't always see it reflected on surface maps, but it has a similar effect. It creates an area of onshore winds that lead to enhanced precip. In future runs, we might want to keep an eye on the 925 mb level to get a sense of who is going to jackpot. I'm not sure what causes this center to form where it does, but maybe the mets and other knowledgeable posters have some insight. I suspect if the trough shifts north it would help. Maybe a slower trough would help too? Of course if I got anything wrong here, please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Well the NAM brings the bowling ball back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 The NAM is interesting. It has a couple of coastal waves and the one further south is the one that ends up strengthening. It would be a light event before we get robbed of moisture. 3K has snow falling out here late morning/midday Tuesday. That is earlier than previous runs. Somebody needs to start a thread. We are 2 days out from the start of the "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Well the NAM brings the bowling ball backCompletely progressive look tho with pos tilt trof and kicker on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 84 hour looks like the euro from a few days ago. this was an acceptable run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Here ya go. I have never started a storm thread before. Wish me luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Let’s keep this thread for Hoffman’s 20-21 window and anything after this weeks fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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