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JAN 4th Coastal


H2O
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You guys hear me talk about "no man's land" and that's what happens between 2 unphased pieces of upper level energy. There's always an area of subsidence and dry air between them. This inhibits lift and precipitation. Csnavywx described it perfectly. If that shifts west just a little more it's going to work much better here. It's not impossible. The trend has been to back up that dead spot as the storm bullies its way north. It's a boxing match. 

Both nams tried to set up a band or 2 west of the bay. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. d013e7c7836f31d1049dab3a61cc5aa5.jpg

Guess where that 2” ball is emoji4.png

It's the 3km NAM.  The only thing that will verify is the Brookhaven to Tolland to ORH to concord deathband,  because it always does.

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8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m selfish so la-la-lock it in please. d013e7c7836f31d1049dab3a61cc5aa5.jpg

Guess where that 2” ball is emoji4.png

That tells the story. The heavy snow is coming due north at us then turns east. That's the storm hitting the northern stream. If they're not phasing we need the northern stream to be slower to let this thing bull rush another 50-75 miles north before that interaction takes place. 

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

With all the caveats that this is one run of one model that doesn’t have a great track record - Thursday morning’s commute would be a mess here.  New snow, even if just an inch, with 40mph gusts would be enough to really screw up the roads.

Low temps too. Snow falls in the low 20s (if it falls). We all know what happened during the Jan 20th inch of snow during the afternoon commute. Probably fell at a bit colder temperatures though.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That tells the story. The heavy snow is coming due north at us then turns east. That's the storm hitting the northern stream. If they're not phasing we need the northern stream to be slower to let this thing bull rush another 50-75 miles north before that interaction takes place. 

How much worse can our luck be? Trust me,  that was rhetorical because a rational answer to that question would sadly take hours to finish. 

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IF the NAM is believable, it wouldn't take much of a northwest trend over the next 4 runs or so to push Winter Storm Warning level snows into our area. I mean, look at the huge jump it just made from 18z to 0z. Easton went up 8 inches. Places just west of the bay in So MD went from a dusting to a warning level storm. There are reasons for serious hope. I'm not sure if that's a good thing at this point or not but.......

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We should probably distinguish between the 12k NAM and 3k NAM in this discussion.  From what I've seen, the 3k NAM is a big improvement over the 12k.  If one of the two NAMs is going to give me snow, that's the one I'd want.

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2 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

Wow. If the GFS takes a decent (not a tick) jump west—-it’s game on. Quite an important run coming up assuming the upper disturbance serves as a pull as opposed to a kicker.  I know, I just made a Hail Mary sound like a screen pass but I’m trying to keep hope alive. 

It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct.

Do we have any analogs for storms with kickers like this? Do we know if the model overdoes the speed of the kicker? This could be the difference between 1" and 4" for DC. 4" seems like the biggest stretch either way atm. Only storm I can think of is Jan 2000, but that's still different. 

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