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George BM

January Discobs Thread

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It's been a strange winter.

November and December were both below normal.  January is a virtual lock to do the same.

Precip since Nov 1 in this area is right at 3" total.  That's the real problem.

As I have said before, give me the precip first.  I'll worry about the type later.

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Chance of a severe storm or two late Monday into Monday night?  From updated morning AFD from LWX:

At the start of the long term, a warm front will be lifting
north across the region as low pressure strengthens to our west
across the Corn Belt. Southerly flow will be enhanced south of
the front, and temperatures stand a shot at reaching the 60s
across a decent portion of the area on Monday. A little rain is
possible as the front lifts north, most likely near the PA
border and most likely earlier in the day.

EC and to a lesser extent the GFS is now hinting that a triple
point low may try to develop along the approaching cold front as
it crosses our region later Monday night. This would enhance
the rainfall and increase the risk of potential convection. Will
need to monitor this in case it looks like a low-end squall
line with heavy rain and gusty winds could develop as the system
passes. Monday night will remain mild, at least through the
time of cold frontal passage, with temps staying in the 50s,
perhaps even low 60s, much of the night.

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i'm in for a thunderstorm and also incredibly in for a stretch of milder temps.  i'm ready for a break from the cold, and maybe a reshuffle of the pattern in general.

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Nice EML, now all we need is some cape and shear.  J/K, that is an odd sounding though.  Edit: COnsidering todays high was 10f warmer than the NAM showed, it's probably wrong.   60 tomorrow anyone?


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4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

25 for the low here. Currently 28.

Looking forward to mid 50s today so I can restore my salt encrusted vehicle to normal.

LOL, yep same here. Gonna head out and 'de-salt' the truck. 51.3/33.0 at 12:45, and P/C skies, downfall is wind is still in the 15-25 mph range.

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Took a hike this AM along the Patuxent and a tributary in southern Anne Arundel.  It was 38 when I started and 58 when I left lol.  There was lots of ice on the river and on the creeks... that'll be gone soon!  Here's a pic



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Nice out.  I'd be fine if it stayed like this until Mid-march. Then give us 1-month of cold to kill the bugs and stunt the grass.  Hopefully freeze all those annoying daffodils that will probably start blooming by next week.

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