Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Thanks. It's a tough one. It probably is overblown to some extent. Not sure exactly how much research has been done into this but there probably is some sort of threshold in which when winds reach a certain level they can start having an influence on dendrites. I would also think the wind is more likely to rip them apart when you're dealing with the real fluffy snow...the high ratio type stuff Could be. Certainly seemed to be the case for me on Boxing Day. Windiest nor'easter I've seen, and nothing but dense baking soda/sand, but I don't know if that's just bad snow growth or the smashing issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can count on a feb 13 like band dropping 4-6” hr rates, the fronto stuff shows this. What do the latest fronto maps show now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: So where is James? Preparing for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can count on a feb 13 like band dropping 4-6” hr rates, the fronto stuff shows this. I agree. I think one sick CF spot in eastern Ma, with another somewhere out around ORH and down through eastern CT. Maybe central CT if this comes in hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The last minute changes to this storm track and the lack of a Blizzard Watch are going to cause people on Eastern MA to not take this as seriously as they should. What was the rationale for doing away with Blizzard watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's more of the dendrites hitting the ground, smashing, and then being dragged across..thus ruining ratios. ahhh thanks...wow I always looked at that completely wrong. I thought the influence was more aloft than the surface. This explains why I was confused when doing some analysis stuff and see such intense winds aloft but still reading about crazy ratios lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Quote Think the RGEM is a tiny tick west than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Funniest thing about that to me is it shows my folks' place in Hamden getting a foot, and they were actually closer to 40. I live in Ansonia near the Woodbridge line. That storm was epic! Being most fell over night we pulled an almost all night we watching the snow fall or dump. Plows broke and couldn’t handle or keep up with the snow. Our town went down to I believe 1-2 town plows. The one town vehicle that ended up being our emergency vehicle was the h-1 hummer. http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2013/05/14/its-official-ansonia-smashes-state-24-hour-snowfall-record/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Funny, I could hear the Americanwx "new post" audio notification in the background on Ryan's FB live...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weatherwiz said: ahhh thanks...wow I always looked at that completely wrong. I thought the influence was more aloft than the surface. This explains why I was confused when doing some analysis stuff and see such intense winds aloft but still reading about crazy ratios lol Perhaps insane winds could? But I think dendrites are held together well. Then tend to go with the wind. Might be some good chem bonding keeping them together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny, I could hear the Americanwx "new post" audio notification in the background on Ryan's FB live...lol There's audio? Never heard it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: That's not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Could be. Certainly seemed to be the case for me on Boxing Day. Windiest nor'easter I've seen, and nothing but dense baking soda/sand. What a maddening storm. But that storm too remember had a very low pressure and I think after many wondered if b/c of that the precipitation was more band-like as opposed to a shield of widespread precipitation. (I mentioned this in my blog post). That would really complicate things b/c you'll have bands of heavy snows but then in between you'll suck on subsidence like a cheap cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: There's audio? Never heard it The "boing" it makes when a new post has been made and your window is open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 So it looks like the GFS Bufkit files are not accumulating precipitation correctly. Meaning all snowfall estimates are wrong as well. And the problem may have started in July () when they upgraded the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: So it looks like the GFS Bufkit files are not accumulating precipitation correctly. Meaning all snowfall estimates are wrong as well. And the problem may have started in July () when they upgraded the GFS. Who needs that anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 To be quite honest (and not because it shows my area with 17 inches), but the 3k NAM looks more like what you would expect from a system of this type as far as distribution of snowfall amounts..much more uniform instead of a big hole in the middle, with a lot south of the area, and a lot in the east. Distribution Kind of doesn’t make sense if this thing is still strengthening as it is coming up.. and Hoth is correct...we were in the least amount forecasted for Feb 13..and the area was one of the jackpots with 30-40 inch amounts...when at the start of the storm we were forecasted to get 10-15. Those are the good busts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 i didn't think the 00z reg looked too different from the 12z euro for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What a maddening storm. But that storm too remember had a very low pressure and I think after many wondered if b/c of that the precipitation was more band-like as opposed to a shield of widespread precipitation. (I mentioned this in my blog post). That would really complicate things b/c you'll have bands of heavy snows but then in between you'll suck on subsidence like a cheap cigar. Radar was definitely shredded for a period. As Ryan will attest too, it was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Perhaps insane winds could? But I think dendrites are held together well. Then tend to go with the wind. Might be some good chem bonding keeping them together? yeah I would have to think they do hold together quite well and it probably would have to take some pretty damn strong winds to rip them apart. This would be a really interesting study..could probably compose a class off of this type of stuff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Man, RGEM hit coastal Maine with two killer bands. The one at HR 48 looks like the best of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 rgem is east but it has not been good this season. It’s status as the go to SRM has quickly faded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: So it looks like the GFS Bufkit files are not accumulating precipitation correctly. Meaning all snowfall estimates are wrong as well. And the problem may have started in July () when they upgraded the GFS. Make GFS Great Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Wrong Was a little further west early n and then went little bit east later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Trying to wrap my flu infused mind around a 948. I remember Messenger and I tracking a 952 through the Gulf if Maine knocking buoys offline one by one. I think the SNE non tropical record is 954 at ACK in 1922 or 23. Obviously being so far offshore we are looking at 960 ish on land but wow. 850 inflow and convergence is so sick on these 0Z models so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Radar was definitely shredded for a period. As Ryan will attest too, it was awful. It would snow pretty well for a little bit and then go to tiny flakes...and then it was rinse and repeat. I would think we see a similar situation here? I mean isn't one of the biggest reasons why precipitation within tropical storms and hurricanes bandy b/c of the pressure gradient and low pressures? My knowledge of tropical meteorology is pretty weak unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RGEM is wham bam thank you m’am. Quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Conv messing around with the models I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: rgem is east but it has not been good this season. It’s status as the go to SRM has quickly faded. After going back and read thru this thread today, I think every model has been tossed in one run or another...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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