WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RPM is back to a blockbuster for central and eastern CT, oh that model, i love itScreens?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: Shamelessly purloined from Bluewave. Dude's digging up gold. Uncertainty.... As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs? Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect data shortly and this will likely help improve model performance. Mmm not so fast.. In a very generic sense, the qpf totals ... but that rain snow line statement is not very good in anomalous scenarios ... more importantly, an anomaly such as this. that sort of -6 SD pressure core approach from the S is going to quite likely have a ginormous ageostrophic component to it... In fact, where the wind would normally blow NE around the NW arc of the maturing CCB head, you may very well find N wind blowing and down so pretty ferociously along I-95 and points E and S.. That's going to scrunch that critical thickness packing very tightly compressed prooobably CC Canal or perhaps a little NW but ... it's a 2 mile blizzard, to chutes, and another 2 of that to cat pawing in sheets in this sort of scenario. There's other arguments related to eccentric dynamical forcing also fisting the surface from aloft... Trust me... this low could pass 20 MI E of ACK and it would snow eastern RI to 10 miles from the Canal or even closer in this situation...easily. That storm track logic is questionable as it pertains to p-types ... given to this set up and evolution as it is depicted in the means ... all told and accounted for, as it stand this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Things still correcting...nothing set in stone anywhere yet. There will certainly be some surprises. I'm with you though, it's hard to believe this will be sub 960 off the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Good points....and I still can’t get over the strength of this thing...I have a hard time imagining this will get that strong??? I mean pressures in the 940’s at out latitude...I’m skeptical. I’m skeptical of that as well. I see a more gradual drop in pressure with increase in latitude; not the plummeting from 1000 mb to 955 mb in 24 hr...And I’m not even sure what’s driving that pressure drop... I think the models are confused on which season it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mmm not so fast.. In a very generic sense, the qpf totals ... but that rain snow line statement is not very good in anomalous scenarios ... more importantly, an anomaly such as this. that sort of -6 SD pressure core approach from the S is going to quite likely have a ginormous ageostrophic component to it... In fact, where the wind would normally blow NE around the NW arc of the maturing CCB head, you may very well find N wind blowing and down so pretty ferociously along I-95 and points E and S.. That's going to scrunch that critical thickness packing very tightly compressed prooobably CC Canal or perhaps a little NW but ... it's a 2 mile blizzard to chutes and another 2 to cat paws in sheets in this sort of scenario. There's other arguments related to eccentric dynamical forcing also fisting the surface from aloft... Trust me... this low could pass 20 MI E of ACK and it would snow eastern RI to 10 miles from the Canal or even closer in this situation...easily. That storm track logic is questionable given to this set up and evolution as it is depicted in the means ... all told and accounted for, as it stand this hour. That’s from the BOX afd this afternoon. It’s not gold. It’s Sipprell being Sipprell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 41 minutes ago, WintersComing said: FWIW: HRDPS also much further west . what's that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Pete bhttps://i.imgur.com/seb6F9Z.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s from the BOX afd this afternoon. It’s not gold. It’s Sipprell being Sipprell I was more interested in the recon flight tidbit than the rain/snow part. Also, the comment about models possibly underdoing heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: what's that? 2.5km RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ajisai said: Pete bhttps://i.imgur.com/seb6F9Z.jpg That’s a funny map. It has the QPF of something like the GFS with the thermals of the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just give me another 75 miles before it turns out to sea. Is that too much much to ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 2.5km RGEM Thanks....is it any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’m skeptical of that as well. I see a more gradual drop in pressure with increase in latitude; not the plummeting from 1000 mb to 955 mb in 24 hr...And I’m not even sure what’s driving that pressure drop... I think the models are confused on which season it is.... Definitely something you’d see more in the north atlantic but this would be the season for warm seclusions up there. I have trouble discounting it considering the number of models from different agencies showing a similar thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Similar to the Canadian meso model Geezus. Belly up to the isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks....is it any good? I’ve never seen it stand out from the regular RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: what's that? Hi Res Reggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Definitely something you’d see more in the north atlantic but this would be the season for warm seclusions up there. I have trouble discounting it considering the number of models from different agencies showing a similar thing. Could it be enhanced due to the insane vertical gradient which would exist between gulf stream and airmass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Agree with Tippy. I think the RASN line is probably more near canal vs into SE MA...unless this goes over Diane's fanny. But I think it's pinned pretty far down there. So for Diane..pulling for ya not to get much mix. Even if you did, you'll probably have a 55kt whiteout for 6 hrs afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Agree with Tippy. I think the RASN line is probably more near canal vs into SE MA...unless this goes over Diane's fanny. But I think it's pinned pretty far down there. So for Diane..pulling for ya not to get much mix. Even if you did, you'll probably have a 55kt whiteout for 6 hrs afterwards. I haven't seen any model bring much "warming" into the area above 925mb. Seems to restricted to below that level, so unless there is some wonky warm layer, I see precip rates overcoming that. We'll see lower ratios than the MLs (10:1 vs say 20:1) but will see a solid thumping. Would be nice to see this area get the fronto band followed by the ML deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I haven't seen any model bring much "warming" into the area above 925mb. Seems to restricted to below that level, so unless there is some wonky warm layer, I see precip rates overcoming that. We'll see lower ratios than the MLs (10:1 vs say 20:1) but will see a solid thumping. Would be nice to see this area get the fronto band followed by the ML deformation. Doesn't sound like your asking for much.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any thoughts on ratios based on current soundings? 15:1 in the new haven area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I haven't seen any model bring much "warming" into the area above 925mb. Seems to restricted to below that level, so unless there is some wonky warm layer, I see precip rates overcoming that. We'll see lower ratios than the MLs (10:1 vs say 20:1) but will see a solid thumping. Would be nice to see this area get the fronto band followed by the ML deformation. The only concern I have is that it gets borderline at like 950-925. That could make it dicey, but I think that it more for canal east. Just my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hoping for the Hail Mary with the 00z runs. Ain't happening though--I've seen this way too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, ajisai said: Pete bhttps://i.imgur.com/seb6F9Z.jpg That looks low... I'd think you can put 12"+ along the coastal counties and then 6-12" from TOL-ORH-CON eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Doesn't sound like your asking for much.............. Gotta make up for all the lost snows this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: Hoping for the Hail Mary with the 00z runs. Ain't happening though--I've seen this way too many times. Just isn't that type of storm. We've known this for days, not sure why you keep torturing yourself, haha. Going to be a fun one to watch for the BOS folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 52 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea I think we’ll eventually lose the “kick” altogether. We’ve lost the warm core look on most guidance through hr 42 or so, but it seems to come back after that point to some degree, resulting in the further east movement (away from the cold air) which is counter to mid latitude cyclone development. It should be losing the warm core characteristics with latitude, not gaining them. Remember, the very cold air and progressive nature of the upper air flow is what is stoping this from just simply coming due north up the coast and crashing into the Rhode Island Conn boarder. If your in eastern MAss, you don't want that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Gotta make up for all the lost snows this year. Well your in a good spot so you could pull it off as long as this doesn't keep going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 BOX's 10% likelihood is pretty anemic for the eastern areas--I'd expect they'd be much higher. I'm still thinking 2-4" for my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: BOX's 10% likelihood is pretty anemic for the eastern areas--I'd expect they'd be much higher. I'm still thinking 2-4" for my hood. Quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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