The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18Z NAM F-GEN 45, 48, 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Can't see RGEM soundings but not sure how it's figuring R/S that far northwest into southeast MA... 850/925s plenty cold at least to canal I honestly don’t think anyone west of the canal is going to have mixing issues...maybe within 5 or 10 miles max but that’s it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z GFS, the most east guidance, is caving west in a big way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18z GFS finally hopping on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: 18z GFS, the most east guidance, is caving west in a big way... 50 miles or so. Not really out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: 18z GFS, the most east guidance, is caving west in a big way... Indeed! Gonna be one of the fun ones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, wxsniss said: 18z GFS, the most east guidance, is caving west in a big way... You're going to get smoked... confidence high of EMA blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hr 48 looks west by 50+ mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 op GFS now looks like most of its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 After 10 runs of showing the same thing, GFS now changes it's mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The Sultan of Full Moon, Tidal ebbs has yet let the masses know of the pending onslaught? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, radarman said: congrats Ginxy on that RGEM Yea lol thats a death band from hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS at hr 48 looks a lot like RGEM at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, ROOSTA said: The Sultan of Full Moon, Tidal ebbs has yet let the masses know of the pending onslaught? early returns have a 2-3 foot surge from ACK up to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The op finally agrees with the ensembles. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Playing out exactly as many envisioned. Just a crushing from ORH eastward. This is for Coastalwx... note the onshore NE flow OES enhancement into Weymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The op finally agrees with the ensembles. No surprise there. Yup. Before everyone says the GFS is a POS... the GFS system did what it was supposed to. The ensembles have been steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Can't tell if you're serious or trying to be funny. I can' either but going to stock up on bourbon in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18Z RGEM at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The op finally agrees with the ensembles. No surprise there. Is it me or does it seem like GFS and Euro to some extent are having a hard time figuring out that convective mess at the beginning of the storm formation down near FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yup. Before everyone says the GFS is a POS... the GFS system did what it was supposed to. The ensembles have been steadfast. Maybe but it’s a POS nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yup. Before everyone says the GFS is a POS... the GFS system did what it was supposed to. The ensembles have been steadfast. Pretty good performance and example of why ensembles are the way to go beyond two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 PF that’s my version of upslope lol. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Is there any feature that could potentially slow this down just a bit as it heads north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty good performance and example of why ensembles are the way to go beyond two days out. Yeah, except that the current OP is outside of the spread from just 2 GEFS runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I haven't looked into BUFKIT or anything to deep yet, but what is the early thought on ratios for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WintersComing said: Is it me or does it seem like GFS and Euro to some extent are having a hard time figuring out that convective mess at the beginning of the storm formation down near FL? Many times it can be a broad area of low pressure and models struggle where to put the exact low. For instance it could be a huge area of 996mb with a weenie 995.6 pocket and the model will drop a L there. In reality my example shows you that the exact position can vary and doesn’t mean a whole lot there. Once things kick into high gear and intensification occurs, it becomes easier for models to show the exact area of low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: Is there any feature that could potentially slow this down just a bit as it heads north? Yeah, Atlantic blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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