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Rtd208

January 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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If we had another week of this cold we'd probably start seeing major disruptions to shipping in the NY harbor. Pretty good icing just started reaching NY Bay this morning.

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21 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Looks like a two day thaw then a bigger one in the 11-15? Wonder if we'll touch 60. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60-65F day or two, the warm-ups often over perform. Snow cover will be gone by next weekend. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60-65F day or two, the warm-ups often over perform. Snow cover will be gone by next weekend. 

To me it’s looked less impressive with each run... remember when it was suppose to be 60 on xmas... 32 and snow lol

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 60-65F day or two, the warm-ups often over perform. Snow cover will be gone by next weekend. 

No way is it hitting 60-65 stop wishcasting

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11 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

No way is it hitting 60-65 stop wishcasting

agreed - in fact with how horrible the models have been in the longer range - beyond 3 - 5 days and other conflicting signals - it is still possible the anticipated warmup could be much shorter duration then anyone expects at this point...…………….

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6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed - in fact with how horrible the models have been in the longer range - beyond 3 - 5 days and other conflicting signals - it is still possible the anticipated warmup could be much shorter then anyone expects at this point...…………….

The models last week only had us getting to around 40 degrees this week. That is going to be easily surpassed. Remember, the more extended warm up isn't forecast until mid to late month. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models last week only had us getting to around 40 degrees this week. That is going to be easily surpassed. Remember, the extended warm up isn't forecast until mid to late month. 

that's the problem right there - how can anyone predict for how long or how warm it will get that far down the road when trying to forecast beyond 3 -5 days is a challenge ? Also with how cold it has been and for how long just getting back to normal or a couple of degrees over would be considered a January thaw this season....

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that's the problem right there - how can anyone predict for how long or how warm it will get that far down the road when trying to forecast beyond 3 -5 days is a challenge ? Also with how cold it has been and for how long just getting back to normal or a couple of degrees over would be considered a January thaw this season....

I don't think anyone is putting exact numbers on a forecast that far out in time. But the bigger concern later this week will be temps reaching 50 degrees or higher with rain on this snowpack. 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models last week only had us getting to around 40 degrees this week. That is going to be easily surpassed. Remember, the more extended warm up isn't forecast until mid to late month. 

The EPS is showing some rather impressive warmth Thursday, Friday and into Saturday... 

 

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36 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

To me it’s looked less impressive with each run... remember when it was suppose to be 60 on xmas... 32 and snow lol

I hit 57F on the 23rd, not quite Christmas but it def got warm. 

I'm not sure if the 60-65F temps will happen this week, I'm thinking towards the end of the thaw however 55+ is definitely possible.

Current forecast shows 54 for Friday.

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS is showing some rather impressive warmth Thursday, Friday and into Saturday... 

 

Euro sucks now and don't ever trust a warm up with rain. Yes it may hit 50 I don't doubt it but it won't feel 50. Plus it' the Euro I don' trust this modem anymore. I thought you were done with the Euro you warm :weenie:

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25 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

No way is it hitting 60-65 stop wishcasting

It's pretty easy to hit 60F during a strong cutter, your snow pack and weeks of cold temps won't save you. 

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1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Euro sucks now and don't ever trust a warm up with rain. Yes it may hit 50 I don't doubt it but it won't feel 50. Plus it' the Euro I don' trust this modem anymore. I thought you were done with the Euro you warm :weenie:

Lol you are something. Trusting the Euro for storms? Yea I’m done, it’s still ok for temp patterns

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don't think anyone is putting exact numbers on a forecast that far out in time. But the bigger concern later this week will be temps reaching 50 degrees or higher with rain on this snowpack. 

also there are other concerns - with it being so cold for an extended period of time- if it does reach into the 50's later this week there will be a big problem on some roads with pot holes and also water main breaks and gas main breaks - a result of our aging infrastructure in addition with all the salt they have applied to the roads the last couple of weeks that just compounds the problem...…...

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7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

also there are other concerns - with it being so cold for an extended period of time- if it does reach into the 50's later this week there will be a big problem on some roads with pot holes and also water main breaks and gas main breaks - a result of our aging infrastructure in addition with all the salt they have applied to the roads the last couple of weeks that just compounds the problem...…...

Yeah there could be big flooding issues as well even into New England, the Canadian has a lot of rain and is even warmer than the gfs. Near 60F into SNE. 

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25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

also there are other concerns - with it being so cold for an extended period of time- if it does reach into the 50's later this week there will be a big problem on some roads with pot holes and also water main breaks and gas main breaks - a result of our aging infrastructure in addition with all the salt they have applied to the roads the last couple of weeks that just compounds the problem...…...

I was under the impression that potholes come about from frequent freezing and thawing. We’ve been below freezing this whole time so a single freeze could actually mitigate potholes. I could be wrong though. 

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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models last week only had us getting to around 40 degrees this week. That is going to be easily surpassed. Remember, the more extended warm up isn't forecast until mid to late month. 

Keeps getting pushed back!

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6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

-14 at my House here in Vermont. 2 at home in wantagh. Both underproformed but still pretty solid

Frg gpt to 1.  I got to 0

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36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Friday should be well into the 50s. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 60 degrees.

It looks like the warmth will last into Saturday as well. 50’s all the way to the US/Canadian border Friday afternoon 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

The precip is looking less and less impressive tomorrow

Dusting to an inch. Euro shows 2 inches for LI.

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51 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's going to get warm

ecmwf_T850a_us_6.png

Then back to cold with a snowstorm chance at day 8 -9. CMC and gfs show that potential.

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