poolz1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Next sat morning looking brutal...just for fun, verbatim, temps in the single digits 3-6" of powder otg with a stiff north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: does have that Dec, 1989 look to it at this point this run may not do it, but nothing has been stuck south of us this year lol GFS crushes it to Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol GFS crushes it to Miami. Cold bias at work ..... back to back snow events :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 At least the southern stream stays active throughout the run. There will be plenty of opportunities to get snow over the next couple of weeks. That is really all I care about seeing in an op run at long lead times in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 CMC is meh, but at least has a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: Cold bias at work ..... back to back snow events :-) It still brings it up offshore and tries to back some precip into the MA coast with an inverted trough lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: lol GFS crushes it to Miami. that's like the GFS of olden days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: CMC is meh, but at least has a storm CMC does the same thing as the GFS, worse actually. Pushes it farther off shore. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: At least the southern stream stays active throughout the run. There will be plenty of opportunities to get snow over the next couple of weeks. That is really all I care about seeing in an op run at long lead times in all honesty. I honestly thought with the Southern stream depicted so strongly yesterday this would be an easier long range outcome to grasp for the GFS. Its been nothing of the sort so far though. Very challenging hobby this is . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: GFS cannot be trusted with anything beyond day 3. It’s been very inconsistent run to run. Seems like it locks in right around day 4-5. Sure there may be some skill issues at 5 days... But generally it is good at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I liked the runs with the trof digging somewhat in the southwest better. Why were we cursing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 HM, the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This thing is forever away still. I don't mind seeing misses right now as long as the overlying setup is there and if anything it's improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 GEFS looks generally suppressed, but likes the second wave better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Based on the MSLP maps on the GEFS, it definitely moved away from a moisture slug/primary into WV and overall more suppressed as the second wave forms into a coastal but further east than 6z. Accordingly mean 24H precip backed off from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: GEFS looks generally suppressed, but likes the second wave better. It backed off a lot. In 2 runs it went from a general NW track to suppressed south. It still seems to follow the op too closely for my liking. But the general look is good. It's not like I see any huge red flags why this can't happen. I'd rather it look slightly suppressed at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It backed off a lot. In 2 runs it went from a general NW track to suppressed south. It still seems to follow the op too closely for my liking. But the general look is good. It's not like I see any huge red flags why this can't happen. I'd rather it look slightly suppressed at this range. I thought the same exact thing. It's been loaded with big rain/mixed events until just now. Big shift but so was the op... Spread on the GEFS is weird. It was really prevalent this summer with tropical events. If 18z comes out juiced so will the ens and so on and so forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 When was the last big (widespread 10"+) event that was north on the guidance 4-7 days out and trended south to crush us. Honest question. I'm trying to think of all the big ones and every one seems to have been either a hit or south at that range. I can't think of a single one that was supposed to be a snow north of us and became a mecs or HECS for us. ETA: I can think of a few SECS level events that shifted south inside a few days. March 2014 being one example. But no big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When was the last big (widespread 10"+) event that was north on the guidance 4-7 days out and trended south to crush us. Honest question. I'm trying to think of all the big ones and every one seems to have been either a hit or south at that range. I can't think of a single one that was supposed to be a snow north of us and became a mecs or HECS for us. Very true. Remember the ones where NYC was only going to get like 4 to 8 inches and ended up with feet of snow. Thats happened twice recently in the past. You are correct, more likely to come North then come South . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, PDIII said: Seems like it locks in right around day 4-5. Sure there may be some skill issues at 5 days... But generally it is good at that range. It hasn’t been performing too well at all this fall and winter. A lot of swings from run to run. I think there has been quite a bit of tweaking and adjusting going on which has affected performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12z UKMET only goes out to 144 and the maps/data available is limited but it seems to like the multiple wave idea as well. The first (next Thursday) is suppressed but at H144 there’s some light precip beginning to break out over IA which the Euro has too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought the same exact thing. It's been loaded with big rain/mixed events until just now. Big shift but so was the op... Spread on the GEFS is weird. It was really prevalent this summer with tropical events. If 18z comes out juiced so will the ens and so on and so forth. When things are way out in unicorn land it's harder to see but now that it's inside a week the lack of spread in the ensemble is evident. And yea it was really obvious with tropical season. It's a pretty big issue imo. An ensemble is useless if it doesn't offer enough perturbations. I don't really see the usefulness of a bunch of low res mini gfs's saying "yea what he said". That said I'm sure this is complicated and I have the utmost respect for those that program these things so for those that read this don't take my critique personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It hasn’t been performing too well at all this fall and winter. A lot of swings from run to run. I think there has been quite a bit of tweaking and adjusting going on which has affected performance. What's your take on our observations that the gefs don't seem to have enough spread and follow the op too closely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When things are way out in unicorn land it's harder to see but now that it's inside a week the lack of spread in the ensemble is evident. And yea it was really obvious with tropical season. It's a pretty big issue imo. An ensemble is useless if it doesn't offer enough perturbations. I don't really see the usefulness of a bunch of low res mini gfs's saying "yea what he said". That said I'm sure this is complicated and I have the utmost respect for those that program these things so for those that read this don't take my critique personally. I think they're aware of the problem. I've noticed that the verification scores for the GEFS at 8+ days have been lagging recently, which I think is a related issue. This summer dtk indicated that they're looking into ways to address it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What's your take on our observations that the gefs don't seem to have enough spread and follow the op too closely? Can understand your frustration. I’m not sure of the exact tweaks to the GEFS, I know of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, nj2va said: 12z UKMET only goes out to 144 and the maps/data available is limited but it seems to like the multiple wave idea as well. The first (next Thursday) is suppressed but at H144 there’s some light precip beginning to break out over IA which the Euro has too. I've been watching the shortwave that passes through on Wed. No model does much with it because it shears out but all guidance has it moving through the flow. It was there cruising through the plains again on the GFS @ hr 102 but no precip. That's our first potential event after Christmas. It's one of those things that could become something seemingly out of nowhere on the surface panels but has been showing up run after run on the upper level panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 I liked the runs with the trof digging somewhat in the southwest better. Why were we cursing it?Good example of too much of a good thing and be careful what you wish for all rolled into one. Where's that SER when you need it? Still bet this doesnt end up as suppressed. Honestly, are people *that* uncomfortable with this look and plenty of wiggle room for when the inevitable NW shift happens or would you guys have rather this trended towards a Great Lakes low? I know which I choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gefs nearly completely lost any and all cutting solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, cae said: I think they're aware of the problem. I've noticed that the verification scores for the GEFS at 8+ days have been lagging recently, which I think is a related issue. This summer dtk indicated that they're looking into ways to address it. Thanks for the info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs nearly completely lost any and all cutting solutions. I think we would all take P008 lol... but yes, there are no cutters on there, but quite a few no storm ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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