Hoth Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This run GFS oper. is kind of a nice paradigm for how gradient and related velocity saturation is stopping cyclogenesis, ...and/or in a mimimum, effecting it adversely. Notice the southern impulse shears out ahead... and gobbles up the baroclinic instability/moisture and bottle rockets it toward the N-Atlantic, while the n-stream and the SPV fragment over southern and SE Canada struggle to catch... ultimately failing to rotate cyclonically down into the backside of the S-stream in a timely fashion. Trouble for me is... I don't know if that "cant'" happen that way... Either way, the N-stream finally does rotate around like a day and half later and tries to ignite another low E between Bermuda and the Carolinas ... but the whole thing D6-8 is a mess of sheared discord out there because of this hyper drive in the atmosphere. It's kind of a scientific curiosity in its own rite, really - Just out of curiosity, how anomalously fast is this flow relative to normal? Seems like that's been a recurring feature the last few years. We talking a few standard deviations? More? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 18z GEFS are west of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Some beastly pressure readings in some of those ensemble members. 950's and 960's. Probably can toss those as too deep but a strong storm is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: GFS is a little closer. Baby steps. A whole lotta baby steps might help me smoke cirrus . At least at this point with it so far east we might get some mountain snow showers from the boundary coming in from the west, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 1 hour ago, kbc360 said: Town of Killingly today posted that the pond at Owen Bell is safe for activities Sweet love that CC ski course they have there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GEFS are west of OP Can I say ain't happening James for good JUJU or do I need to be genuine and say ain't happening Bobalouie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Can I say ain't happening James for good JUJU or do I need to be genuine and say ain't happening Bobalouie What ain't happening? The Biblical scenario of yesterday? Did anyone buy into that? If they did, they set themselves up for a major disappointment. Or perhaps a modest 3-6" storm? I still see this as a plausible scenario at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 A modest sized snowstorm is possible out of this storm, if it does intensify as rapidly as most models and their ensembles portray than I could see the stronger scenario unfolding and bring snows to the eastern Mass coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What ain't happening? The Biblical scenario of yesterday? Did anyone buy into that? If they did, they set themselves up for a major disappointment. Or perhaps a modest 3-6" storm? I still see this as a plausible scenario at this time frame. A SECS possibly, But I would not have gone another two levels at day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 hours ago, Modfan said: Meanwhile, has anyone been on the ponds fishing or riding? I am curious to the thickness of area ponds.I remember in the early 80's people driving cars on and across ponds and lakes in Southern ORH county Saw the first ice fishermen on the pond near me today. n ORH county. No trucks on the ice though. Maybe later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Saw the first ice fishermen on the pond near me today. n ORH county. No trucks on the ice though. Maybe later this week They are fishing Barton Cove on the Ct River already. Green River is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Some of those members of the EPS and GEFS ensemble mean are really amped up, like around <960mb, this is coming back westward, the 18z GFS already shifted about 50 miles west from the 12z run to the 18z run, our southern stream disturbance is 60 hours away from being fully sampled in the mid levels, we have two arctic jet disturbances in the mean flow that are critical to our storm coming west. First one is to dive southward and slow down our southern stream system and pulls it west by almost closing off the H5 low, then the second dives around the backside of the H5 trough and tries to hook the surface low to the benchmark. Reminds me of the 2015 Jan blizzard in that the second arctic disturbance pulls the storm to the benchmark as a <960mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Some of those members of the EPS and GEFS ensemble mean are really amped up, like around <960mb, this is coming back westward, the 18z GFS already shifted about 50 miles west from the 12z run to the 18z run, our southern stream disturbance is 60 hours away from being fully sampled in the mid levels, we have two arctic jet disturbances in the mean flow that are critical to our storm coming west. First one is to dive southward and slow down our southern stream system and pulls it west by almost closing off the H5 low, then the second dives around the backside of the H5 trough and tries to hook the surface low to the benchmark. Reminds me of the 2015 Jan blizzard in that the second arctic disturbance pulls the storm to the benchmark as a <960mb low No Jan 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No Jan 2005? The evolution at H5 is different, the 2015 blizzard is closer because the northern stream trough dug all the way to the Outer Banks, next week's potential trough is digging to the Southeast as well perhaps further southwest than Hatteras, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 hours ago, dryslot said: A SECS possibly, But I would not have gone another two levels at day 7. The people ruling out a major event at day 6 are every bit as silly as those who were excited about the potential at day 7 allegedly were. That is the irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 hours ago, Modfan said: Meanwhile, has anyone been on the ponds fishing or riding? I am curious to the thickness of area ponds.I remember in the early 80's people driving cars on and across ponds and lakes in Southern ORH county I have been wondering about this, too. Most should be safe next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The people ruling out a major event at day 6 are every bit as silly as those who were excited about the potential at day 7 allegedly were. That is the irony. We have already witnessed this winter you can't even rule out day 3 model progs, Why should this threat be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Man, just getting a look at the EURO...didn't end up translating to the surface much, but H5 was much less disjointed that run. Significantly better imo. Obviously its more likely to not produce much, it always is...but I'm not sure how anyone can dismiss the possibility of a major event for e NE. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: We have already witnessed this winter you can't even rule out day 3 model progs, Why should this threat be any different? I was quick on the trigger, admittedly....but this is perilously close to a hook-and-latter....closer than some are implying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, just getting a look at the EURO...didn't end up translating to the surface much, but H5 was much less disjointed that run. Significantly better imo. Obviously its more likely to not produce much, it always is...but I'm not sure how anyone can dismiss the possibility of a major event for e NE. JMO. Pretty much a HECS @H5 that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 James needs to find an analog that isnt Jan 05 or Jan 15 for every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was quick on the trigger, admittedly....but this is perilously close to a hook-and-latter....closer than some are implying. It is closer actually, That's why i'm holding out until 0z Monday, Should have all the players on the field by then so we will see if it is still a viable threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: It is closer actually, That's why i'm holding out until 0z Monday, Should have all the players on the field by then so we will see if it is still a viable threat. Yea, that is a fair plan. Anyone east of the river should be glued to this....especially ORH points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that is a fair plan. I Anyone east of the river should be glued to this....especially ORH points east. Agree at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 GFS is going to try a little harder this run...bit more stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS is going to try a little harder this run...bit more stream interaction. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Looking better, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS is going to try a little harder this run...bit more stream interaction. A lot closer at 108 than previous meh runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 S stream hanging more....but n stream also slower to drop in, which may negate that a bit...we'll see. Better overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 This run may do the deed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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