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Rjay

December 9th 2017 Crusha Obs

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37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What is it spitting out for snow totals out here?

Just posted this on the discussion thread - let me know if this shouldn't be in the obs thread:  Latest HRRR with a general 2-4" of snowfall for the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with about 2-3" in Philly and along a line running up I-95 in PA and about 3-4" along a line a bit east of the NJTPK to NYC (including NB) - and nobody getting more than maybe 5". This is definitely 1-2" less than was being shown by most of the global models through late last night.  Sucks, but 2-4" would still be nice...although 3-6" would've been nicer, lol...

hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png

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I also fear the models are showing snowfall totals it’s assuming now but much of this is virga.  I see one in max for NW of City. 1-3 for city maybe 2-4 east of there where no mixing.  Event last from noon to 6?

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4 minutes ago, christhesnowman said:

I also fear the models are showing snowfall totals it’s assuming now but much of this is virga.  I see one in max for NW of City. 1-3 for city maybe 2-4 east of there where no mixing.  Event last from noon to 6?

Most falls after 18z per the models and going through at least 7 or 8

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We are underway here.  It started about 9am.  It was like somebody shook the clouds as it started coming down quickly.  I overlook South Mountain near Bethlehem and you could see the dump starting.  Now have light snow, visibility 1 mile and the ground has been whitened.  31*

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1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

good luck with 12-1 ratios, temps are marginal, rates are light. Models cut qpf. Those larger amounts some weenies were hugging are not happening...take 1-2 inches..maybe 3 in a lucky spot and run

Nada here with decent dbz returns over me.

Dry air is winning.

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1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

good luck with 12-1 ratios, temps are marginal, rates are light. Models cut qpf. Those larger amounts some weenies were hugging are not happening...take 1-2 inches..maybe 3 in a lucky spot and run

3-5 is a good call for NYC

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2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

good luck with 12-1 ratios, temps are marginal, rates are light. Models cut qpf. Those larger amounts some weenies were hugging are not happening...take 1-2 inches..maybe 3 in a lucky spot and run

Georgia had 14:1 ratios yesterday with similar conditions.

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Mt Holly

Well, we are having quite the fight with dry air across most of
the region now. Dewpoints are coming in much lower to support
the majority of modeling which is already verifying on the wet
side for locations away from the coast. Banding may help the
snow start sooner at some locations with one just west of the
Philadelphia metro now and another which brought visibilities
down fairly quickly at Atlantic City last hour with a dusting
on the ground.

The snow/rain(sleet) line is currently from Georgetown DE into
Cape May NJ.

Given the trends, QPF and snowfall have both been lowered
through the early afternoon and pops trimmed back quite a bit
through the morning.


A look to why this is occuring is a decent amount of FGEN
forcing offshore in association with convective development. In
essence, the thunderstorms offshore are robbing our region of
more moisture coming into play.

I don`t want to take products down too hastily this morning,
but that is definitely a possibility as we progress through the
morning given the continued drying trend. Many areas look dry
for much of the morning now. The one change made with products
for the mid-morning update was to downgrade counties from Salem
to northwest Burlington along I-295 from a warning to an

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2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Nada here with decent dbz returns over me.

Dry air is winning.

It's on its way.  Steady light snow down here in the Lehigh Valley of PA.  Radar is starting to light up pretty good just upwind of me.

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The trolling needs to stop. I made a very detailed post yesterday about how the heavier snow would develop on the nose of the increasing 500mb jet and you can now see that happening with the banding that's developing near Lancaster. Once that stronger lift moves in, it should easily overcome whatever dry air is in place. 

Again, I expected very little before 11AM.

The nose of the strong dynamics is only now in Northern VA.

500mb_sf.gif?1512831188907

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