JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: That's pretty much just what the ensembles and the Euro have been trying to tell us for the past few days. Sounds good to me. 10 inches of snow or 1" ZR, I'll take the first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GSPLONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...As of 435 AM Sunday: The latter part of the week looks quietand seasonally cool with temps remaining below normal as highpressure moves across the region on Thursday and weakens offshoreFriday. From that point onward, the situation gets much moreinteresting and complicated because of a split flow patternthat supports a cold continental high over the nrn Plains and adeveloping srn stream system on Friday into Saturday. Have beenlooking at this one for the last few days with some interest and itstill looks like a race between the arrival of the cold air spillingover the mtns and the precip developing along a warm front caughtup in the fast-moving confluent flow aloft. The model trends arelooking more compelling early this morning, as for the last fewruns the models show decent consistency with the sfc high movingover the Midwest and bridging over the mtns by Friday evening intime to bring the low level dry air into the nrn tier just aheadof the precip, which arrives from the WSW after midnight. In otherwords, the cold air wins the race, at least for the area along/Nof I-40. In this scenario, the precip development would quicklylock in a cold air damming wedge that would bring even more coldair down from the north. The result would be a wintry mess acrossat least the nrn parts of the fcst area starting by sunrise andcontinuing thru Saturday and into Saturday night as the primarysfc low moves past to the south and then off the mid-Atlanticcoast Sunday morning. The GEFS plume diagrams bear out this trendacross the NW Piedmont and mtns as well, with the p-type lookinglike an equal chance of all four types on Saturday/Saturdaynight. As for the forecast, some tweaks have been made to delaythe onset into Saturday morning, but eventually a likely probwill be featured. Have followed the temp trend downward, whichimproves the chances of wintry precip across the NC part of thefcst area. For this issuance, the consensus among neighboringoffices was to limit the precip to rain v. snow, but the realitywould be something quite a bit more messy if the model guidancewas to verify. There is plenty of time to fine tune this. Forthe time being, suffice to say that readers should start payingattention to the winter storm potential next weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6Z FV3 no longer cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Another pleasant clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GEFS at 6z has significantly lower snow means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 RAH highlights the western piedmont as the favored location to see wintery precip (for their forecast area): Models differ a bit with timing of said disturbance (GFS roughly 12 hours faster than the ECMWF), but are rather consistent with a Miller "A" type winter storm pushing northeast out of the Gulf Coast states late week, likely to cross portions the Carolinas sometime pre-dawn Saturday through pre-dawn Sunday. With a strengthening high to the north of the region, a pretty strong CAD type regime will be in place, especially across the northwester Piedmont counties. This should allow for at least some sub-freezing temperatures during the favored portion of the diurnal cycle, helping a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain to be possible, primarily across western NC and the foothills. The setup is a bit too uncertain to point to exact impacts, however, areas most likely to see a period of wintry mix will be along the northern and western Piedmont counties of the state, including portions of the Triad region. The current setup does remind me of the 2009 storm. Wasn't great for my location (~2" of snow then rain) but good for folks farther west. https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=503 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 FV3 is nice, temperature outputs still seem strange.. with the PV in SE Canada and a 1035+ HP just to the north of us it seems temps should be lower than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: GEFS at 6z has significantly lower snow means Makes sense as soon as the OP comes on board.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, ajr said: FV3 is nice, temperature outputs still seem strange.. with the PV in SE Canada and a 1035+ HP just to the north of us it seems temps should be lower than modeled That look would strengthen the low level cold (CAD); as long as there is cold air available to the north. On this model there are dew points in the teens initially over us and then up in VA at 168. So again, you would think surface temps would be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 That 6z FV3 run was an absolute thing of beauty! Complete text book with the banana high setup and thus the end result with precip. You have dual structured highs in the Green Bay WI and the main high situated in the Poughkeepsie NY area funneling the cold. If the FV3 taken at face value verified many people on this board would be very happy with the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I think Dec 8-9 deserves it's own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Much more reasonable FV3 map, to balance out the general clownishness around here. I would take this to the bank. Of course, we still have an eternity for things to go wrong, never forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 7 hours ago, UpstateSCGamecock said: . 8/50 show me snow... I'm starting to like those chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Well dern @Orangeburgwx, We are just about the same Latitude, (well, more south & West), though you are West of Me.. I had to look up your local.. I Always have the Warm~nose worries as I'm, "on the Beach".. Though those Ensemble members are starting to look promising for Us?.. We need just alil more Southward "trend".. Sorry upstate Folks.. Hopefully It's Our Turn, though I hope Everyone see some Flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, SENC said: Well dern @Orangeburgwx, We are just about the same Latitude, (well, more south & West), though you are West of Me.. I had to look up your local.. I Always have the Warm~nose worries as I'm, "on the Beach".. Though those Ensemble members are starting to look promising for Us?.. We need just alil more Southward "trend".. Sorry upstate Folks.. Hopefully It's Our Turn, though I hope Everyone see some Flakes! No doubt about that, everyone is going to get something (which is why I started the thread) now the question is who gets what and how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I moved my post to the storm thread that was started - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51790-early-christmas-present-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 <besides the upcoming storm> Not sure what to think about the indices today: PNA - Looks to drop negative in the medium range but go back positive in the LR - Good AO - Goes positive then negative in the medium range, and then is a tossup in the LR - Not sure NAO - Goes strongly positive in the medium range and then drops to negative in the LR - Good Definitely better than the last few days. Hoping for at least a cold Christmas. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: <besides the upcoming storm> Not sure what to think about the indices today: PNA - Looks to drop negative in the medium range but go back positive in the LR - Good AO - Goes positive then negative in the medium range, and then is a tossup in the LR - Not sure NAO - Goes strongly positive in the medium range and then drops to negative in the LR - Good Definitely better than the last few days. Hoping for at least a cold Christmas. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml That feels very foreboding for a Christmas storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That feels very foreboding for a Christmas storm... That would be great but I would be good with just the cold. A warm Christmas sucks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... No significant changes in the longer term pattern. Surface high pressure will remain across the region into Friday morning, with another cold front then moving into through the area Friday afternoon, and pushing well south of the cwa into Saturday. Dry conditions will occur Wednesday into Friday, then expect precip chances to be on the increase Friday night through Saturday due to overrunning wedge pattern setting up east of the Appalachians. Temperatures behind the front in the wedge will be much colder, with overnight lows in the 30s, and highs in the 40s to lower 50s Friday night into Saturday. With overnight lows forecast in the lower 30s over the northernmost counties of the cwa, models do indicate the potential for precip challenges across northern portions of the cwa early Saturday morning, with a rain/snow mixture possible over the Pee Dee/Catawba regions near the state line. Confidence low and much can change between now and then, but will continue to monitor through the week. && Oh boy they said the "s word"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That would be great but I would be good with just the cold. A warm Christmas sucks.. Ah, the fond memories of Christmas 2015 when I had to swat the gnats and mosquitoes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Ah, the fond memories of Christmas 2015 when I had to swat the gnats and mosquitoes away. Lol.. yep, had to turn the AC on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 15 hours ago, JoshM said: Ladies and gents, your clown map (if the soundings are to be believed, it might not be so clownish west of 77) Says initialize 6z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 After our storm, Canada goes warm mid month in a big +EPO pattern. It looks like we will be up and down with temperatures in the southeast, not torching. Potential looms in January though as the stratospheric polar vortex continues to be under the attack and may get a heavy blow in late December - https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1069689390195187712 Also, the tropical forcing will be returning back to the El Nino-like / Western Hemisphere phases by month end / into January...positive signs ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 A very encouraging post from psuhoffman over on the MA thread (he seems like the real deal, so I put a lot of stock in what he says) Note of course that his thoughts on snow are really only applicable when it comes to the MA, but the thoughts on overall patters should be applicable for us as well. 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I don't believe them because the weeklies show what they show. I believe them because they show what we logically expected the pattern to evolve into given nino climo and all the signs so far this season. I definitely don't regret keeping my bullish snowfall forecast unedited. I don't know what more to wait for. The mjo keeps cycling cold then dying without any grand tours of the warm phases. The enso looks pretty close to the composite of all our big years. The PV is a weak pathetic pos this year that's getting beat around like a piñata. Everytime we get a trough in the east its storms galore. We're running cold and every attempt to flip quickly reverts. The nao looks ok and tends to only trend better later in nino years. Im all in. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Won't be the first or last time but I've seen enough. I expect this to be a big year and will be disappointed (and very wrong) if it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Maybe a few snow showers tonight across the NE Piedmont / Northern Coastal Plain: Tonight, the fast moving upper disturbance will continue to approach from the west northwest. The lift associated with this system will work with available moisture in the lower half of the atmosphere to produce extensive cloudiness across the northern counties. Well after midnight, a few showers expected to develop over the northern Piedmont. Temperature profiles aloft suggest that enough saturation in the favored dendrite layer to produce a few snow showers or rain/snow showers during the pre dawn hours into early Wednesday morning across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Where the snow showers occur, they should last no more than 15-30 minutes with the snow melting on impact due to the warm ground temperatures. Min temperatures generally in the low-mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Saw this posted, but the updated solar cycle chart is going for deep solar minimum over each of the next 4 winters, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 hours ago, griteater said: Saw this posted, but the updated solar cycle chart is going for deep solar minimum over each of the next 4 winters, at least Woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Winston-Salem airport reporting snow showers now. Anyone seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yes, I saw a few flurries on my way in to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.