donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 06z gfs does show how that gradient ends up north of us, I don't think anything is set in stone yet. Right now, I wouldn’t be too concerned about the 6z run. The pattern should become more favorable for cold and snow going forward as the EPO plunges and its expanding ridge pushes the AO negative (11/15 or 73% of 4” or greater snowstorms in NYC during the second half of December occurred with a negative AO). Also, the 10-20 day period after December snowstorms that brought 4” or more snow to Philadelphia, New York, and Boston featured Arctic outbreaks 10-20 days later in 5 of the 8 cases. That makes the 12/20-30 period a time to watch for such outbreaks. The pattern shown on the ensembles leads me to have above average confidence in a return to winter conditions by 12/25 +/- 2 days. I also expect the month to see teens in NYC with a modest chance of single digits before it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 the ao forecast is all over the place in the long run...it's a torch or brutal cold and snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: the ao forecast is all over the place in the long run...it's a torch or brutal cold and snow... Two days ago, most members were positive. In this case there is a strong consensus that it will fall sharply with the timing being the issue (large left-right spread among the falling ensemble members). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Two days ago, most members were positive. In this case there is a strong consensus that it will fall sharply with the timing being the issue (large left-right spread among the falling ensemble members). I always worry about the one that rises in the long run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 27° overcast w/ occasional flurries. It def feels like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Pacific is really running the blocking show now anyway. There in lies a problem, once we loose the Pacific, and there are signs that MAY (may) happen come January, we are dead in the water. The NAO hasn’t cooperated in years, it just wants to default positive in winter and the AO hasn’t really either, it’s been more neutral so far recently however. If the -EPO/-WPO go bye bye, it’s going to get ugly real fast. With a background La Niña in place, the PNA isn’t going to cooperate (+) for long periods of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: There could very well be a period of Pacific blocking relaxation or reversal after January 7th. But that doesn't mean that we won't see any more -EPO intervals during the remainder of the winter. The La Nina last winter still produced snowy periods despite the warmth in each of the winter months when the EPO went negative. The slightly -EPO last DJF was all that was needed to get us to normal to above normal snowfall. We have already exceeded the normal December snowfall and the month is only half way through. It just wants to snow in the new climate regime here. I think snowman19 has been a good luck charm...ever since he joined in 2015 it snowed despite the warmth and we even saw the biggest snowfall on record... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Central Park has received at least a trace of snow for 4 days in a row. It could reach 5 today, and could even reach 7 if the Sunday night event happens and is timed right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 I hear the grinch show up on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: There in lies a problem, once we loose the Pacific, and there are signs that MAY (may) happen come January, we are dead in the water. The NAO hasn’t cooperated in years, it just wants to default positive in winter and the AO hasn’t really either, it’s been more neutral so far recently however. If the -EPO/-WPO go bye bye, it’s going to get ugly real fast. With a background La Niña in place, the PNA isn’t going to cooperate (+) for long periods of time Mehhhh let's see though. In the EPO-dominated winters we've experienced this decade, I remember people incessantly raising the same concerns. But in the end, everybody (and every LR) model understimated the durability of that block, which always seemed to reemerge after brief relaxations. Granted, we currently don't have the NPAC "blob" of warm water we had back in those years, but I think this works out well for us in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 38 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: I hear the grinch show up on the Euro Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nope New England forum says OP and EPS say 23rd cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 29° w/ Lgt snow falling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: New England forum says OP and EPS say 23rd cutter Yeah it’s got a cutter early but then a potential snow event on a wave for the 25th. I didn’t see if the EPS has the wave or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: There in lies a problem, once we loose the Pacific, and there are signs that MAY (may) happen come January, we are dead in the water. The NAO hasn’t cooperated in years, it just wants to default positive in winter and the AO hasn’t really either, it’s been more neutral so far recently however. If the -EPO/-WPO go bye bye, it’s going to get ugly real fast. With a background La Niña in place, the PNA isn’t going to cooperate (+) for long periods of time That will be a problem towards the second half of January to the first of February. After that. The NAO will have its French Onion dips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The grammar here is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have done well in the snowfall department no matter how positive the NAO has been in the winters since 13-14. The -EPO has really stepped up to the plate to provide the blocking necessary for snow. That being said, my favorite snowstorms of the 2010's so far have been -NAO driven. It's tough to produce the higher echelon of storms like we saw in 10-11 and January 2016 without a -NAO assist. Are you just referring to the immediate coast or NE in general? 3/14/17 blizzard was quite the event and prob ranks among my top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 53 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: white Easter update?...when is Easter this year?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 53 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: white Easter update?...when is Easter this year?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 55 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I don't really think he's being bullish either. EPS has been consistent with showing the SE Ridge being suppressed before Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 that is one impressive EPS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: The immediate coast from NYC to my area of Western Suffolk. The +NAO can be better for interior areas like we saw with record interior snow last March. Seems like even just some transient blocking has delivered on this too, Chris. Just goes to show that, between the nickel and dime events and the fairly frequent blockbusters we have seen this decade, we have been supremely spoiled down here on the coast. I suspect that, model writhing aside, our luck will continue for at least the first half of this winter and possibly beyond. I distinctly remember models being far too quick to break down the NPAC block in years past. Why should this one be any different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Nope Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Yes it does What ? It shows a wave along the front It should be colder than what the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What ? It shows a wave along the front It should be colder than what the models show. I believe that the definition of a grinch storm is causing confusion. In the NE thread they are using it as a storm that washes away any snowpack, the storm next weekend would fit that definition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 52 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I believe that the definition of a grinch storm is causing confusion. In the NE thread they are using it as a storm that washes away any snowpack, the storm next weekend would fit that definition Interesting how every year around the winter solstice since 2011 we get a warm up. This year will be shorter in duration than some of the recent years before we turn colder again. NYC max temps near winter solstice since 2011 12-18-16...58 12-24-15...72 12-25-14...62 12-22-13...71 12-21-12...56 12-21-11...62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Interesting how every year around the winter solstice since 2011 we get a warm up. This year will be shorter in duration that some of the recent years before we turn colder again. NYC max temps near winter solstice since 2011 12-18-16...58 12-24-15...72 12-25-14...62 12-22-13...71 12-21-12...56 12-21-11...62 Yeah, it’s sadthat I see it as a given that I will not keep my snow for Christmas but I’m holding out hope that it will be chilly at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 The big cutter just finishing everything off in the transition may be best. The prior scenarios where the system was weaker allowed the SE ridge to drag it’s heels more and takes days longer to get pushed out. This may just set everything back in place. I said 2-3 days ago that I thought the quick cutter back to trof idea was going to likely be the end result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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