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Typhoon Tip

Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The -NAO has weakened considerably over the last two EPS runs. Hopefully it comes back. At least the Pacific looks good.

Any worry creeping in?

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56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The -NAO has weakened considerably over the last two EPS runs. Hopefully it comes back. At least the Pacific looks good.

i wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen at all.. 

this fledgling season is 0-1 on NAO progs so far... I've been mentioning it in my rants that the NAO is inherently a P.O.S. index for every reason actually ... right down the board. Predictability, expectation, faux ideas on what it means for our pattern, based upon re-enforcing nonsense spanning decades where internet fan-fair develops its own sense of reality in matters based up ...crowd physics more than anything else.  SO, maybe we shouldn't give a sh!t anyway

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No.

The EPO block actually trended stronger and the PNA trended more positive. So actually that combo works great for us. Should allow nice cold dump into US

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There was a negative nao last week.  I don't understand this crap.  It trended weaker with time but it still happened.  I guess because it didn't produce November snow it wasn't real enough?  

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LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

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When DEC 8th comes around I do think the blocking will trend weaker like it just did in its last episode. Which isn't bad if the pacific still looks good, we don't need a massive -NAO in NE  to get snow. I would be fine running with a -EPO/+PNA and slightly neg NAO. Saying that, CPC still has quite the spread for the domain.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20171121.201712.gif

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

But Scott you used the word "Considerably"  when describing how much weaker it got.  That raises doubts for the NAO peeps.   I happen to agree with Tip...that thing/domain is way over rated imo.  If it's there fine, if not as long as the pacific is in our favor that's good enough for me too.

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

I think he was referring to Tip’s angry post. 

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Living in Delaware for the 2009/2010 season, I was grateful for the the strong -NAO. Even though I am pretty close to NYC, I'm more concerned with too much of a -NAO otherwise it would be congrats Delaware again.... A nice -AO, +PNA, -EPO, and just enough blocking to slow things down a bit would be just fine...

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen at all.. 

this fledgling season is 0-1 on NAO progs so far... I've been mentioning it in my rants that the NAO is inherently a P.O.S. index for every reason actually ... right down the board. Predictability, expectation, faux ideas on what it means for our pattern, based upon re-enforcing nonsense spanning decades where internet fan-fair develops its own sense of reality in matters based up ...crowd physics more than anything else.  SO, maybe we shouldn't give a sh!t anyway

I would be shocked if it didn't happen.

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

That was enough to open the floodgates of worries.

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Scooters Boss

Global ensemble NWP models severely underpredicted the blocking high over Greenland as indicated by the negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forecast trend product.

DPpTRdGVQAAC7Sl.jpg

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

Best not to mention it because some need it to never waver on guidance in order to salvage some semblance of sanity.

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Ray ... it probably will ... 

if we want to cite past occurrences (always risky) ... in fairness the first episode took place, but ... in a sense the models double crossed us in that the presentation of it, and in fact it's actual physical exertion on the flow ...those parts of it is didn't really have much sensible impact on our weather.  the nao was situated too far away and also ..weaker. 

but, this isn't new to science. the nao is intrinsically a problematic domain space in modeling/tele's and so forth so... every time we are staring down the barrel of a negative(positive) regime in these tools, there a a dicey caveat. 

 

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I'm trying to come up with a number on the first real snow threat of how many inches of snow we will get or the number of weenie tags.

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38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best not to mention it because some need it to never waver on guidance in order to salvage some semblance of sanity.

I think it's a valid thing to watch though. I didn't mean to elicit any angry responses...just talking weather. 

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46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scooters Boss

Global ensemble NWP models severely underpredicted the blocking high over Greenland as indicated by the negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forecast trend product.

DPpTRdGVQAAC7Sl.jpg

I'm not sure I agree with Mike (assume this is him). We haven't reached validation, and per this link...the GFS has had a negative bias. Not saying that will continue...but lets see how it plays out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it's a valid thing to watch though. I didn't mean to elicit any angry responses...just talking weather. 

You had to know it would stir some thangs up. 

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