Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Typhoon Tip

Late autumn, early winter model mayhem

Recommended Posts

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The -NAO has weakened considerably over the last two EPS runs. Hopefully it comes back. At least the Pacific looks good.

i wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen at all.. 

this fledgling season is 0-1 on NAO progs so far... I've been mentioning it in my rants that the NAO is inherently a P.O.S. index for every reason actually ... right down the board. Predictability, expectation, faux ideas on what it means for our pattern, based upon re-enforcing nonsense spanning decades where internet fan-fair develops its own sense of reality in matters based up ...crowd physics more than anything else.  SO, maybe we shouldn't give a sh!t anyway

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When DEC 8th comes around I do think the blocking will trend weaker like it just did in its last episode. Which isn't bad if the pacific still looks good, we don't need a massive -NAO in NE  to get snow. I would be fine running with a -EPO/+PNA and slightly neg NAO. Saying that, CPC still has quite the spread for the domain.

CFSv2.NaT2m.20171121.201712.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

But Scott you used the word "Considerably"  when describing how much weaker it got.  That raises doubts for the NAO peeps.   I happen to agree with Tip...that thing/domain is way over rated imo.  If it's there fine, if not as long as the pacific is in our favor that's good enough for me too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

I think he was referring to Tip’s angry post. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Living in Delaware for the 2009/2010 season, I was grateful for the the strong -NAO. Even though I am pretty close to NYC, I'm more concerned with too much of a -NAO otherwise it would be congrats Delaware again.... A nice -AO, +PNA, -EPO, and just enough blocking to slow things down a bit would be just fine...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen at all.. 

this fledgling season is 0-1 on NAO progs so far... I've been mentioning it in my rants that the NAO is inherently a P.O.S. index for every reason actually ... right down the board. Predictability, expectation, faux ideas on what it means for our pattern, based upon re-enforcing nonsense spanning decades where internet fan-fair develops its own sense of reality in matters based up ...crowd physics more than anything else.  SO, maybe we shouldn't give a sh!t anyway

I would be shocked if it didn't happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

That was enough to open the floodgates of worries.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Scooters Boss

Global ensemble NWP models severely underpredicted the blocking high over Greenland as indicated by the negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forecast trend product.

DPpTRdGVQAAC7Sl.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, oye. All I said was that it trended weaker. It could easily come back on future runs...just something to watch. I care, and will always care more about the Pacific. 

Best not to mention it because some need it to never waver on guidance in order to salvage some semblance of sanity.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ray ... it probably will ... 

if we want to cite past occurrences (always risky) ... in fairness the first episode took place, but ... in a sense the models double crossed us in that the presentation of it, and in fact it's actual physical exertion on the flow ...those parts of it is didn't really have much sensible impact on our weather.  the nao was situated too far away and also ..weaker. 

but, this isn't new to science. the nao is intrinsically a problematic domain space in modeling/tele's and so forth so... every time we are staring down the barrel of a negative(positive) regime in these tools, there a a dicey caveat. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Best not to mention it because some need it to never waver on guidance in order to salvage some semblance of sanity.

I think it's a valid thing to watch though. I didn't mean to elicit any angry responses...just talking weather. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scooters Boss

Global ensemble NWP models severely underpredicted the blocking high over Greenland as indicated by the negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forecast trend product.

DPpTRdGVQAAC7Sl.jpg

I'm not sure I agree with Mike (assume this is him). We haven't reached validation, and per this link...the GFS has had a negative bias. Not saying that will continue...but lets see how it plays out.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×