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Bob Chill

December 2017 Long Range Disco

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah it could play out that way but it’s a classy problem to have.  I fear longevity of the pattern more.  Shame if we can’t cash in on this because it doesn’t come along all that often.  I wish I could see what 12z Xmas Eve looks like.  Will have to wait and hope.  

I have a slow period at work and vacation to burn. If its cold, there will be snow close by. I will gladly head out to Deep Creek or Canaan for a few days. I probably will whether it snows imby or not.

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I love seeing the models spit out these extreme solutions 10 days out. A monster block/PV hammer actually verifying to the point of squashing everything south to Myrtle Beach is pretty low on my list of worries at this juncture.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/unsinkable-titanic-sinks

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20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I have a slow period at work and vacation to burn. If its cold, there will be snow close by. I will gladly head out to Deep Creek or Canaan for a few days. I probably will whether it snows imby or not.

Upslope and Les could be absolutely epic man.

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55 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah it could play out that way but it’s a classy problem to have.  I fear longevity of the pattern more.  Shame if we can’t cash in on this because it doesn’t come along all that often.  I wish I could see what 12z Xmas Eve looks like.  Will have to wait and hope.  

Longevity of that pattern is my worry as well, I fear the worst that as soon as I'm back from finals it's back to a pattern akin to last year.

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I could care less about longevity if we get a decent looking white Christmas this year.

:snowing:

 

I'll trade the whole winter for a Christmas Day paste bomb of 7"-10" regionwide.

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1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I could care less about longevity if we get a decent looking white Christmas this year.

:snowing:

 

But that is the very essence of longevity.  Getting a white Xmas.  So you do care.  After December it can do what it wants..it will anyway.  

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Screw the specifics. Don't want to jinx it, but the fact that it looks like the -AO/NAO is going to happen is just amazing. This kind of reminds me of the 2000-01 winter where December got off to a warm start, but the models started picking up a major pattern change towards X-mas w/ a huge block forming. It did happen and then we got the December 30 2000 storm. My point to this rambling is to ignore the specifics right now, if the block comes as advertised it sets us up perfectly. Whether we hit a home run? We'll find out. 

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25 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Screw the specifics. Don't want to jinx it, but the fact that it looks like the -AO/NAO is going to happen is just amazing. This kind of reminds me of the 2000-01 winter where December got off to a warm start, but the models started picking up a major pattern change towards X-mas w/ a huge block forming. It did happen and then we got the December 30 2000 storm. My point to this rambling is to ignore the specifics right now, if the block comes as advertised it sets us up perfectly. Whether we hit a home run? We'll find out. 

I was just looking into that winter earlier today. I like it!

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2 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Heh. So I'll take it no one saw the end of the 0z GFS. Worth a look ;) .

Nasty cutoff with the DC/Balt corridor riding the northern edge. A Civil War would breakout between the have and have nots in our region depending on where that cutoff set up. 

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Euro ensembles are even colder at the end of the run than 12z.

Looked like a sizeable shift to even colder too. Just when you thought it couldn't get any colder on the means .This could be a fun month .

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looked like a sizeable shift to even colder too. Just when you thought it couldn't get any colder on the means .This could be a fun month .

Things are improving as we get closer..what the hell is going on...this is not ops normal around here

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Things are improving as we get closer..what the hell is going on...this is not ops normal around here

Sure looks that way ....but failure is always lurking in the shadows...lol. I'm in the camp...give me the cold air and the snow will come...how much ..tbd.

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro ensembles are even colder at the end of the run than 12z.

 

26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looked like a sizeable shift to even colder too. Just when you thought it couldn't get any colder on the means .This could be a fun month .

I'm not sure they are actually indicating a colder look what's more likely happening is as we get closer the warm outliers are dropping off and thus the mean gets colder. 

An ensemble mean at rangewill always struggle to show extremes well. I take it as a sign that confidence is increasing though. Less outliers washing out the extreme cold. 

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What we are seeing with the models is a trackers dream come true. So much going on you could write a book. Almost all of which is good for winter time cold and the possibilities of snow. The only negative could be that of suppression during this upcoming period and then that would offer possibilities of quick hitting 1-2 inchers as NS energy rotates around the pv not to mention you also have the possibility of a big ticket item as the pv retreats and the pattern relaxes.

Not going to go into details but keep this general for the overnight runs. GEFS and the EPS continue to advertise the blocking up top as the real deal. They still like the idea of a deep penetration of the pv southward towards/into the Great Lakes general region.  They still are wishy washy as far as the SW trough which impacts what to expect day 6/7 onward through the mid latitudes and to a much lesser extent the upper latitudes (pv more so then the blocking). And they both continue with the cold/very cold anomalies for the central and Eastern US day 8 through the extended.

As far as the signal from both for a storm in the east of which would now be centered on day 7/8, that signal has grown somewhat stronger. Precip from both models has increased through that time period and we have seen a slight improvement on the general snow profile as well but that is mostly far west and into the mountains. At this point if I were to hazard a guess, if we do see a storm it would probably form along the initial cold air push into the east with odds slightly favoring to our south tracking through or to the east of our region. As mentioned before with what the models currently show this would be rain or mostly rain for our region because of timing issues as the true cold will still be to the west of us. I would not be surprised though if the mountains actually do well here if the storm track cooperates. This time period is worth keeping an eye on though for the possibility of a brief flip over (especially N/W of the cities) as the colder air does bleeds in. 

****************

Now this next part is dedicated to @mappy who is always looking for a ticket to ride the Hype train. To @WxWatcher007 the reaper of lost souls. Who lives and dies by the mantra 'The higher they climb the harder they fall'. And @C.A.P.E. who I believe has been nagging us about the roughly day 11 potential for some days now.

Saw this on the GEFS and got a little excited, at least as excited as you can get for something roughly 11 days or so out. Even though this may not come to reality it still does suggest the possibilities we are being presented with in the upcoming period. Not to mention my constant harping about what the models want to do with the SW trough.

Below we have the setup at day 10. This is shortly after the SW trough and its energy gets ejected and caught up in the southern stream, a southern stream that is riding across the SE and up off the coast in our region I might add.. The energy at this point is roughly located over Texas. Now notice where the northern/polar jet is dropping down to and merging with the southern/tropical jet at. Texas. What this represents is the ability of NS energy phasing with the energy from the leftover SW trough energy. Now normally this involves a lot of timing issues and things have to break just right. But in this case the merging of the streams opens a very wide window for a phase, anywhere from Texas up through to off the mid-Atlantic coast. Generally speaking another issue we often deal with is when a phase actually occurs is the location of this phase. To soon (west) and the storm will normally drive up to our west. To late (east) and it doesn't develop quickly enough to pull northward into our region. But in this case we have a set track that any possible phased storm would take with very little deviation. And what sets up this track is the pv we now see located on top of the Lakes which I consider a prime location for us. This location puts us on the front side of the trough where storms can amplify and the pv is creating a block where even over amplified storms can only go so far north (In this case, the blocking would indicate any storm would track to our south and east). Now what is key for our snow chances is where the boundary sets up. At this point that boundary looks to set up in the general Mid-Atlantic region. To far south and we are too deep into the cold air and we admiring the lovely cirrus clouds as the storm gets depressed to the south and runs out to sea. To far north and we are in shallow cold air enjoying  lovely 34 degree rain. But this setup probably puts us in a good location to see snow.

5a1e95e92ee86_Day11storm.thumb.gif.a438e42de054cfb64ca3a24423840a0c.gif

 

Now remember, this is not a prediction. It is just a break down of what a model shows at this time, at day 10/11 no less. So don't go canceling plans for what is basically the potential for a fantasy snowstorm. Or do cancel them see if I care. :)

Just a quick aside. The assembles are actually getting more bullish for this time period. Seeing a pickup in precip totals, and yes a pickup with snow totals.

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Good write up.

i'm hoping for two things.  First, after the pattern flip that we get some clipper action which i think the 6z GFS shows can happen at the beginning of the pattern.  The storm @showmethesnow has indicated will depend on some energy hanging back in the SW which can get the STJ involved.  Eject a piece of that and get it to move in with a piece coming up over the ridge and thats your EC storm.

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I'm not sure they are actually indicating a colder look what's more likely happening is as we get closer the warm outliers are dropping off and thus the mean gets colder. 

An ensemble mean at rangewill always struggle to show extremes well. I take it as a sign that confidence is increasing though. Less outliers washing out the extreme cold. 

Good point !    Getting rid of those warm outliers has to play a hand in the outcome as we near but it sure is comforting seeing the departure  values constantly  going  down as we near .

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18 minutes ago, H2O said:

Good write up.

i'm hoping for two things.  First, after the pattern flip that we get some clipper action which i think the 6z GFS shows can happen at the beginning of the pattern.  The storm @showmethesnow has indicated will depend on some energy hanging back in the SW which can get the STJ involved.  Eject a piece of that and get it to move in with a piece coming up over the ridge and thats your EC storm.

Thank you.

Been harping on getting that SW trough booted at for awhile now. It kept giving me horrible flash backs to last winter. But the last day or so I am wondering if we want it to actually stay there. With the current setup it is probably a blessing. With the pv to our north it is offsetting the negative impacts a southwest trough can create for our region. Plus with an active southern stream at this time having pieces of energy ejected out of the trough into the flow provides opportunities. Everything looks so great now I keep waiting for the other shoe to fall. 

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not sure they are actually indicating a colder look what's more likely happening is as we get closer the warm outliers are dropping off and thus the mean gets colder. 

An ensemble mean at rangewill always struggle to show extremes well. I take it as a sign that confidence is increasing though. Less outliers washing out the extreme cold. 

I suppose it's all about how you look at it. In my view, while the coldest solutions may not have necessarily gotten colder, the warmest solutions getting cooler is indicative of a general trend towards cold.

Semantics and all that.

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Nice write up @showmethesnow. The models have been pretty consistently advertising what looks to be a decent southern jet aimed towards the SE/MA coast. Also I like seeing that piece of the PV underneath the block. The bigger risk for this region to me is almost always the storm track being too far N/W, which is why I am always going to root for the biggest, stoutest NA block possible, positioned from near the Davis Straits SW to Hudson Bay. That is an ideal location for this region, as it tends to force the storm track just far enough SE. Sure suppression is a risk, but there are always risks depending on the exact strength and position of all of these features. The panel you posted is a beauty. The period from about the 10th forward has some real potential.

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20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I suppose it's all about how you look at it. In my view, while the coldest solutions may not have necessarily gotten colder, the warmest solutions getting cooler is indicative of a general trend towards cold.

Semantics and all that.

There are different ways to interpret the ensembles. Lots to look at. In my view, there is a more impressive EPO ridge over the last few runs in addition to the PV pushing further south on both the GEFS and EPS. On the 0z EPS the block over GL, which had been weaker towards the end on previous runs, is more impressive. The advertised colder look can at least partially be attributed to these changes.

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice write up @showmethesnow. The models have been pretty consistently advertising what looks to be a decent southern jet aimed towards the SE/MA coast. Also I like seeing that piece of the PV underneath the block. The bigger risk for this region to me is almost always the storm track being too far N/W, which is why I am always going to root for the biggest, stoutest NA block possible, positioned from near the Davis Straits SW to Hudson Bay. That is an ideal location for this region, as it tends to force the storm track just far enough SE. Sure suppression is a risk, but there are always risks depending on the exact strength and position of all of these features. The panel you posted is a beauty. The period from about the 10th forward has some real potential.

Thank you.

I am with you as far as the blocking. I would rather risk suppression then seeing everything drive to our north which far to often is the case. I can see the possibility of suppression in this case though but am of the thought that the models are probably over doing the southward extent of the pv. Famous last words I know.

Yeah, I pulled that panel up and it was a 'Wow' moment for me. I could have hyped that panel up even more but I got tired of writing and I didn't want to make @WxWatcher007 job too easy when the look goes into the crapper. If I wanted to hype it even more I would have mentioned that the faster northern flow would have presented the higher likelihood of any phase being a clean phase as the NS caught up and dove into the rear of the southern energy. Nor did I mention that with such a huge window being presented that short of a 3/4 day hiatus of NS energy I would think that seeing a phase would be of fairly high probability. I especially didn't want to mention the possibility that this setup was probably one of the more favorable I have seen in a few years for the possibility of the ever elusive triple phaser. Nah, not mentioning them was probably the best thing to do. ;)

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32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There are different ways to interpret the ensembles. Lots to look at. In my view, there is a more impressive EPO ridge over the last few runs in addition to the PV pushing further south on both the GEFS and EPS. On the 0z EPS the block over GL, which had been weaker towards the end on previous runs, is more impressive. The advertised colder look can at least partially be attributed to these changes.

No doubt. There's just so much going on, and it's a look that might only take a small change to get folks really excited at what could be depicted on the surface.

It feels like a broken record at this point, but looking at the 500mb maps on the ensembles (as well as the ops) the last week or so feels like looking back in time. It's just all so incredibly different than it has been the last MANY years that I think we're all pretty stunned.

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Looks like past day 11 a high wave number pattern emerges as Ventrice states, tables being set for a big event down the road possibly.

 

 

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