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December 2017 Long Range Disco


Bob Chill

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1 hour ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Well if you want Cold... you got it at the end of the run

That’s a brutally cold pattern for the east on the GFS The massive -EPO continues thru the end of the run and that’s probably the best  shot to see a storm.

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38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'll repeat what I said the other day, 12/17-12/21 is when we get hit by a snowstorm.  Probably from the energy in the SW, but I could be wrong on that point. Wouldn't turn down anything before it, but I don't see anything of consequence imho.

I still like the 11th-15th time frame for the first widespread light-moderate event, somewhere in our region, east of the mountains.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still like the 11th-15th time frame for the first widespread light-moderate event, somewhere in our region, east of the mountains.

I am out of town that week for work so it would fit the timeframe.  In fact, it has just become more likely. 

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still like the 11th-15th time frame for the first widespread light-moderate event, somewhere in our region, east of the mountains.

Maybe we're both right on a storm, which would be the best outcome. But my belief we miss the first shot would be a blown call. So be it. Give me the snow!

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe we're both right on a storm, which would be the best outcome. But my belief we miss the first shot would be a blown call. So be it. Give me the snow!

I get off of school on the 14th, so my best guess is that if we get any snow, it would be right after that

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2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Surprised no one mentioned the Euro yet. That late next week “threat” (if you even want to call it that), stripes OC to Boston with a 2-5”. 

Hmmm. 

Verbatim, the only area that would see accum snow is SNE. It's mid-upper 30's at best for all of the MA and that's after some warm days before it. But it's just an op run that is vastly different than the one 12 hours ago. It's a mega-longshot but it's possible that the front clears and something runs right behind it. Nothing worth dissecting @ 8-10 day leads. I don't think we stand much of a chance until Dec 10th and beyond. Front side of a flip to cold in early Dec is rarely a way we get snow in these parts. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Verbatim, the only area that would see accum snow is SNE. It's mid-upper 30's at best for all of the MA and that's after some warm days before it. But it's just an op run that is vastly different than the one 12 hours ago. It's a mega-longshot but it's possible that the front clears and something runs right behind it. Nothing worth dissecting @ 8-10 day leads. I don't think we stand much of a chance until Dec 10th and beyond. Front side of a flip to cold in early Dec is rarely a way we get snow in these parts. 

Figured. Can’t see 2m temps on wx.graphics . Was going purely off 850s. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wxbell has been real slow lately and it skips random hours on many model runs daily it seems. At least for me it does.

Same here. It's been pretty rough sailing with them since I re-upped last month.

Wasn't interested enough on an op run, where all the action begins in the extended, to search elsewhere for the Euro. Figured I could catch what I needed to know from all of you on the boards.

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