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Ginx snewx

2017/2018 New England Cities Snowfall Predictions

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39 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

followed up by Will "photographic memory" ORH with precise storm totals from the very same northern Maine villages, as well as your hood. awesomeness.

 

This version of the Will.OS has extended battery life and contains some 41,000 chips and can carry out 93 quadrillion calculations per second.

The mind-boggling amount of calculations computers like this can carry out in the blink of an eye can help crunch incredibly complicated data – such as variations in weather patterns over months and years and decades.

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9 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Can we assume some type of grinch storm this year?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

My experience says probably.  Defining "Grinch storm" as a snow-melting rain event in the period 21-28 Dec, we're 12-of-19 for Grinches at my place.  Three other years had Grinch-ey wx but no snow to melt - 2015 the most recent of those.  Only 4 years had no such wx, 2000, 2002, 2010, and 2013.  Of those, only 2002-03 brought less than 100" here (only 67.8"), because all but one of the serious storms were shunted south by the cold.  Over the 19 years, only 1.7" of snow has fallen on 12/25, an inch less than on any other Dec day.

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4 hours ago, tamarack said:

First Will and then you.  :lol::lol:  I'm thinking I should remember the Miranda warning, "Anything you say can and will be used against you."   It's good for an all-day chuckle.

Hope you know it's all in good fun.  We all know each other a lot better than we think when it comes to posting styles.  Will had me pegged with the "6-7 posts to himself" before someone replies.  

You gotta be able to laugh about yourself on here because we all have our styles and the long term members know each other well.

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ORH 65

BOS 41

PVD 30

BDL 49

BDR 30

PSF 70

ALB 60

BVT 75

CON 63

PORTLAND 60

CAR 90

KGNX 55

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 55

 KDIT 61

Lol great stuff we no rat

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On 11/8/2017 at 2:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We've been lucky recently...esp in SNE...so I'm going to make my guesses based on we get a little unlucky in SNE this year despite a half-decent pattern...NNE will get a huge storm they've been craving later in the winter where SNE gets skunked...powderfreak will not be able to contain his glee as BOS-ORH-PSM-TOL-HFD are all cold rain and he's posting pics of 20" of high QPF snow. I do think December will be solid for all and we finally get a "clean" white Christmas for most of the region. February turns to garbage until later in the month. This is completely for entertainment only as I honestly don't think there is much skill in predicting our snowfall in this type of weak ENSO regime

 

Anyway, here it is:

ORH 61

BOS 40

PVD 34

BDL 44

BDR 22

PSF 69

ALB 57

BVT 87

CON 66

PORTLAND 72

CAR 139

KGNX 51

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5....epic battle that comes down to the end, but Ray barely holds on after building a big lead in December and survives a late season comeback and some unorthodox measuring by Kevin.

 

A few more for fun:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Tamarack: 109...posts about how good the snowpack is in January but then gets disappointed during the February La Nina thaw that he won't challenge his modern day non-Fort Kent record of 49 inches....then almost makes a come back with the late February NNE blockbuster, but too much settling in the week after before the next event keeps the record elusive for another year. Posts musings about March 1984.

Powderfreak: 128...town, not ski resort...but there will plenty of upslope events where he's posting pics of the ski resort to himself 5 or 6 times before anyone else responds.

Dendrite: 86...gets a bit grumpy during the later season NNE blockbuster as he's on the line and gets a lot of taint while wxeyeNH gets buried. He pretends that he's happy because it will be easier on his chickens, but he's secretly enraged and then logs off for a few hours when Eek posts that he got more snow than him.

KScooter: 41...has a mild meltdown during December advisory event where he gets marine taint...but then makes it up a week later with a 12/20/08-style CJ

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

Moneypitmike: 75....finally beats ORH for the first time in almost a decade. But still has at least 2 epic meltdowns over QPF...one of them in a storm he ends up jackpotting in when the mesoband sets up right over him.

AccordionManCory: 42....includes an absolutely epic rant over a storm that wasn't really forecasted to jackpot him anyway. But he does get a legit 4" per hour snowfall this year and posts a video ripping out a few tunes in the middle of it.

Kwxfella: 46...makes 137 references to either 1970-1971 or 1993-1994 during the good gradient pattern in December...with 65 of them occurring at the Boston December GTG as we are tracking a snow event, then turns on the winter violently in February during the long thaw and says this winter should never be mentioned in the same sentences as those ones. He does get a marginal advisory event late in the year where his extra 100 feet of elevation pays dividends vs the rest of Boston.

WxmanMitch: 145.....finally lives in the weenie plot up near Woodford, VT. The first year doesn't disappoint. He gets enough spillover from upslope to juice his totals, but still does well on any system with an easterly flow component.

 

 

Not sure if I'm the "new guy from NC" but I'm a new guy from NC and last winter (my first winter back in New England since 1983) was incredible.  Apparently it was incredible, but only to me and maybe some one else who moved here from NC last year.  There can't be many of us.

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28 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Not sure if I'm the "new guy from NC" but I'm a new guy from NC and last winter (my first winter back in New England since 1983) was incredible.  Apparently it was incredible, but only to me and maybe some one else who moved here from NC last year.  There can't be many of us.

It's actually a meteorologist from NC. I didn't see you post much so I didn't know you were recently remigrated from NC. But welcome back! 

His handle is wxblue:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50451-20172018-new-england-cities-snowfall-predictions/?do=findComment&comment=4661111

 

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Somehow I didn't see this thread until now. I'm thinking an average to above average year across most of New England with the biggest totals in NNE along and east of the Green Mountains.

ORH: 82"   

BOS: 58"

PVD: 47" 

BDL: 53" 

BDR: 38"

PSF: 85"

ALB: 68"

BTV: 76" 

CON: 94"

PWM: 88"

CAR: 134"

My new location: 135".

My old location (Lenox, MA): 86". 

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On 11/8/2017 at 2:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Because he was all rain in this last event, he's already declared this forecast a bust. ;)

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Why not through something in.  Analogies (in no particular order)1950-51; 1954-55; 1964-65; 2000-01; 1995-96; 1983-84; 1984-85; 2005-06; 2008-09. Snowfall is a crapshoot. Went with a colder than normal December and March (maybe a bit too extreme in March). Going with a very cold start to January and a milder finish (if warmth comes sooner then I'm way off. If later then I might take another degree or two off. Pretty confident about February, except may be a bit too warm. Guess 2000-01 is my "favorite" analog. Part science, part voodoo. All in fun.

location snow    departure from normal

                         D      J         F        M

ORH     94       -3.6   -2.1    +3.6   -4.3

BOS     63

PVD     62

BDL     68

PSF    114

ALB     92

BVT    134

CON    92

PORT  103

CAR    178

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BTV had 100 inches last season primarily due to the 30 inches with the Pi Day storm. I am not sure how many times they have recorded back to back 100 inch seasons.

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20 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV had 100 inches last season primarily due to the 30 inches with the Pi Day storm. I am not sure how many times they have recorded back to back 100 inch seasons.

Twice. '69-'70 through '71-'72, and '92-'93/'93-'94. 

They came real close to putting up five straight starting with '06-'07, 94.6", 120.2", 91.4", 96.5", and 128.4"

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On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 2:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

would it surprise you to know in 1956 Car got 83 inches while PWM got 116, I have some method to my madness, just don't write dissertations on it. Look up 67 too

That's happened 8 times in the 78 years of records at CAR, but only twice since 1970-71, the other being 1995-96.  That huge reversal of fortune in 92-93 is about the same as in 1955-56.

Some silly calculating:
So far, 13 guess lists have been posted here, which doesn't include Ray's far more thorough outlook, posted 4 days after this thread opened but probably 99% in place by then.  Below are the averages for the 11 NWS sites.  For better or worse, I've not included codfish's record-burying list.  First number is the 12-post average, 2nd is Ray's range, 3rd the lows-highs among the 12.

ORH    74.9     65-75    58-95

BOS     51.7    45-55    39-68

PVD     40.3    37-47     29-62

BDL     55.1    50-60     35-72

BDR     30.2     N/A      21-41

PSF      91.0     N/A      69-115 

ALB      69.8    50-60    50-92

BTV    100.2    70-80    75-134

CON     81.8    72-82    63-98

PWM    87.3    65-75    60-115

CAR    128.8     N/A      90-178

The "wisdom of the crowd" stayed within Ray's ranges for the 4 major SNE sites, though another optimistic guess for ORH could slide it over the top.  Farther north and west, CON snuck in but everywhere else came in higher than Ray's outlook.  Compared to 30-year norms (4 from SNE and 4 from NNE), all of the 12-poster averages run AN, from about 110% at BDL and CAR to nearly 140% for PWM.

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44 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That's happened 8 times in the 78 years of records at CAR, but only twice since 1970-71, the other being 1995-96.  That huge reversal of fortune in 92-93 is about the same as in 1955-56.

Some silly calculating:
So far, 13 guess lists have been posted here, which doesn't include Ray's far more thorough outlook, posted 4 days after this thread opened but probably 99% in place by then.  Below are the averages for the 11 NWS sites.  For better or worse, I've not included codfish's record-burying list.  First number is the 12-post average, 2nd is Ray's range, 3rd the lows-highs among the 12.

ORH    74.9     65-75    58-95

BOS     51.7    45-55    39-68

PVD     40.3    37-47     29-62

BDL     55.1    50-60     35-72

BDR     30.2     N/A      21-41

PSF      91.0     N/A      69-115 

ALB      69.8    50-60    50-92

BTV    100.2    70-80    75-134

CON     81.8    72-82    63-98

PWM    87.3    65-75    60-115

CAR    128.8     N/A      90-178

The "wisdom of the crowd" stayed within Ray's ranges for the 4 major SNE sites, though another optimistic guess for ORH could slide it over the top.  Farther north and west, CON snuck in but everywhere else came in higher than Ray's outlook.  Compared to 30-year norms (4 from SNE and 4 from NNE), all of the 12-poster averages run AN, from about 110% at BDL and CAR to nearly 140% for PWM.

Nice synopsis and comparative stats. Thanks, we pray

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On 11/8/2017 at 0:11 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Mezza mezza

ORH 72

BOS 41

PVD 39

BDL 59

BDR 24

PSF 88

ALB 90

BVT 132

CON 89

PORTLAND 109

CAR 152

KGNX 59

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 71     KDIT 75

 

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On 11/8/2017 at 12:11 PM, Ginx snewx said:

My pics, feel free to toss yours up here

ORH 80   30.6

BOS 57   22.6

PVD 42   22.5

BDL 70   20.0

BDR 26   18.0

PSF 100  24.2

ALB 77 17.2

BVT 120  34.8

CON 95  33.7

PORTLAND 115  33.6

CAR 127  61.6

KGNX 59  25.6

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 73   28. 0 KDIT 73.5 27.3

First quarter with YTD taken from ACIS2 Coop, WBAN and CoCorahs nearest stations

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On 11/8/2017 at 2:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We've been lucky recently...esp in SNE...so I'm going to make my guesses based on we get a little unlucky in SNE this year despite a half-decent pattern...NNE will get a huge storm they've been craving later in the winter where SNE gets skunked...powderfreak will not be able to contain his glee as BOS-ORH-PSM-TOL-HFD are all cold rain and he's posting pics of 20" of high QPF snow. I do think December will be solid for all and we finally get a "clean" white Christmas for most of the region. February turns to garbage until later in the month. This is completely for entertainment only as I honestly don't think there is much skill in predicting our snowfall in this type of weak ENSO regime

 

Anyway, here it is:

ORH 61

BOS 40

PVD 34

BDL 44

BDR 22

PSF 69

ALB 57

BVT 87

CON 66

PORTLAND 72

CAR 139

KGNX 51

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5....epic battle that comes down to the end, but Ray barely holds on after building a big lead in December and survives a late season comeback and some unorthodox measuring by Kevin.

 

A few more for fun:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Tamarack: 109...posts about how good the snowpack is in January but then gets disappointed during the February La Nina thaw that he won't challenge his modern day non-Fort Kent record of 49 inches....then almost makes a come back with the late February NNE blockbuster, but too much settling in the week after before the next event keeps the record elusive for another year. Posts musings about March 1984.

Powderfreak: 128...town, not ski resort...but there will plenty of upslope events where he's posting pics of the ski resort to himself 5 or 6 times before anyone else responds.

Dendrite: 86...gets a bit grumpy during the later season NNE blockbuster as he's on the line and gets a lot of taint while wxeyeNH gets buried. He pretends that he's happy because it will be easier on his chickens, but he's secretly enraged and then logs off for a few hours when Eek posts that he got more snow than him.

KScooter: 41...has a mild meltdown during December advisory event where he gets marine taint...but then makes it up a week later with a 12/20/08-style CJ

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

Moneypitmike: 75....finally beats ORH for the first time in almost a decade. But still has at least 2 epic meltdowns over QPF...one of them in a storm he ends up jackpotting in when the mesoband sets up right over him.

AccordionManCory: 42....includes an absolutely epic rant over a storm that wasn't really forecasted to jackpot him anyway. But he does get a legit 4" per hour snowfall this year and posts a video ripping out a few tunes in the middle of it.

Kwxfella: 46...makes 137 references to either 1970-1971 or 1993-1994 during the good gradient pattern in December...with 65 of them occurring at the Boston December GTG as we are tracking a snow event, then turns on the winter violently in February during the long thaw and says this winter should never be mentioned in the same sentences as those ones. He does get a marginal advisory event late in the year where his extra 100 feet of elevation pays dividends vs the rest of Boston.

WxmanMitch: 145.....finally lives in the weenie plot up near Woodford, VT. The first year doesn't disappoint. He gets enough spillover from upslope to juice his totals, but still does well on any system with an easterly flow component.

 

 

On track so far....February meltdown going well, the December and White Christmas worked out....now we just need the NNE blockbuster late this month while SNE gets skunked. That will cause the majority of the remaining SNE holdouts to pull the plug on winter. But then March will end up having a couple decent events. 

 

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6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

On track so far....February meltdown going well, the December and White Christmas worked out....now we just need the NNE blockbuster late this month while SNE gets skunked. That will cause the majority of the remaining SNE holdouts to pull the plug on winter. But then March will end up having a couple decent events. 

 

I will make a spreadsheet with all guesses and develop a mean miss to award the first annual SNE snow guru of the year trophy.

Snowfall.png.66df21471b82a1c8a9fffcc50c9d406c.png

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Member    City
     Total
GINX    ORH 80
        BOS 57
       PVD 42
        BDL 70
       BDR 26
        PSF 100
        ALB 77
        BVT 120
        CON 95
        PORTLAND 115
        CAR 127
        KGNX 59
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 73      KDIT 73.5
    
Hubbdave    
    ORH 62
       BOS 48
       PVD 36
        BDL 59
        BDR 21
        PSF 90
        ALB 50
        BVT 95
        CON 82
        PORTLAND 70
        CAR 140
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 55      KDIT 60
        HUBB  68
    
Runnaway iceberg    
    ORH 95
        BOS 66
        PVD 44
        BDL 72
        BDR 39
        PSF 115
        ALB 81
        BVT 105
        CON 98
        PORTLAND 108
        CAR 144
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 88     KDIT 87.9
        DXR 71
    
Orh-Wxman    
    ORH 61
        BOS 40
        PVD 34
        BDL 44
        BDR 22
        PSF 69
        ALB 57
        BVT 87
        CON 66
        PORTLAND 72
        CAR 139
        KGNX 51
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5.
    
DMillz25    
    ORH 75
        BOS 57
        PVD 47
        BDL 69
        BDR 45
        PSF 105
        ALB 79
        BVT 105
        CON 87
        PORTLAND 100
        CAR 130
        KGNX 63
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 75     KDIT 73
        KNYC 40
    
Tblizz    
    ORH 58
        BOS 39
        PVD 29
        BDL 35
        BDR 22
        PSF 95
        ALB 75
        BVT 115
        CON 76
        PORTLAND 99
        CAR 118
        KGNX 33
        TAN 30
    
Coastal WX    
    
    ORH 75
        BOS 50
        PVD 38
        BDL 48
        BDR 26
        PSF 84
        ALB 70
        BTV 90
        CON 85
        PORTLAND 90
        CAR 130
        KGNX 50
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 60      KDIT 65
    
Ct Valley    
    ORH     86
        PSF      90
        BDL      69
        BDR      41
        GON     43
        BOS      66
        PVD      52
        ALB      82
        TAN     52
        BTV     95
        CON    86
        PWM   92
        AUG    95
        CAR    98
    Ray  75,  Kevin  78
    
Tamarak    
    ORH     72
    BOS      46
    PVD      36
    BDL      52
    BDR      30
    PSF       85
    ALB       65
    BTV      85
    CON      67
    PWM     70
    CAR     125
    GNX      49
    RAY      57
    DIT       57
    Dryslot   94
    LavaRock   92
    MBY      98 
    
DIT    
    ORH 65
       BOS 41
        PVD 30
        BDL 49
        BDR 30
        PSF 70
        ALB 60
        BVT 75
        CON 63
        PORTLAND 60
        CAR 90
        KGNX 55
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 55
         KDIT 61
    
South Coast Ma    
    ORH 69
        BOS 44
        PVD 34
        BDL 42
        BDR 27
        PSF 95
        ALB 60
        BVT 125
        CON 77
        PORTLAND 80
        CAR 122
        KGNX 48
        TAN 40
        KJAMES: 29
        EWB: 36
    
Wxman Mitch    
    ORH: 82"   
        BOS: 58"
        PVD: 47" 
        BDL: 53" 
        BDR: 38"
        PSF: 85"
        ALB: 68"
        BTV: 76" 
        CON: 94"
        PWM: 88"
        CAR: 134"
        My new location: 135".
        My old location (Lenox, MA): 86"
    
J Paul Gordon    
    ORH     94     
        BOS     63
        PVD     62
        BDL     68
        PSF    114
        ALB     92
        BVT    134
        CON    92
        PORT  103
        CAR    178
    
Wx Fella    
    ORH 72
        BOS 41
        PVD 39
        BDL 59
        BDR 24
        PSF 88
        ALB 90
        BVT 132
        CON 89
        PORTLAND 109
        CAR 152
        KGNX 59
        RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 71     KDIT 75
 

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Ginx, looks like you're going to be way too high. I doubt Boston sees another 22" in March, although it's not totally impossible.

But most of the interior picks are doomed for sure. BTV has 54" and you picked 120" (way too high, I think only 70-71 and 07-08 had more than this at Burlington). There's no way they will get another 66" in March/early April, especially considering the cold air is on the other side of the globe. Same with Albany...they have 38.9" and you picked 77"...they aren't getting 40" in March. Albany's average snowfall is around 55", so your pick was already highly optimistic. I'm guessing they get over 75" in only 15-20% of winters...that's a lot for Albany. ORH has 46" and you picked 80"...looks out of reach given the pattern. 

I think you may overestimate average snowfalls at some of these interior sites. Or you thought we'd see a really good winter in a weak La Nina. It did start out promising, but it's been horrible since January 10th. The problem is there is just more and more warm air on the map. 

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