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Ginx snewx

2017/2018 New England Cities Snowfall Predictions

79 posts in this topic

39 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

followed up by Will "photographic memory" ORH with precise storm totals from the very same northern Maine villages, as well as your hood. awesomeness.

 

This version of the Will.OS has extended battery life and contains some 41,000 chips and can carry out 93 quadrillion calculations per second.

The mind-boggling amount of calculations computers like this can carry out in the blink of an eye can help crunch incredibly complicated data – such as variations in weather patterns over months and years and decades.

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9 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Can we assume some type of grinch storm this year?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

My experience says probably.  Defining "Grinch storm" as a snow-melting rain event in the period 21-28 Dec, we're 12-of-19 for Grinches at my place.  Three other years had Grinch-ey wx but no snow to melt - 2015 the most recent of those.  Only 4 years had no such wx, 2000, 2002, 2010, and 2013.  Of those, only 2002-03 brought less than 100" here (only 67.8"), because all but one of the serious storms were shunted south by the cold.  Over the 19 years, only 1.7" of snow has fallen on 12/25, an inch less than on any other Dec day.

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4 hours ago, tamarack said:

First Will and then you.  :lol::lol:  I'm thinking I should remember the Miranda warning, "Anything you say can and will be used against you."   It's good for an all-day chuckle.

Hope you know it's all in good fun.  We all know each other a lot better than we think when it comes to posting styles.  Will had me pegged with the "6-7 posts to himself" before someone replies.  

You gotta be able to laugh about yourself on here because we all have our styles and the long term members know each other well.

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

ORH 65

BOS 41

PVD 30

BDL 49

BDR 30

PSF 70

ALB 60

BVT 75

CON 63

PORTLAND 60

CAR 90

KGNX 55

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 55

 KDIT 61

Lol great stuff we no rat

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On 11/8/2017 at 2:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We've been lucky recently...esp in SNE...so I'm going to make my guesses based on we get a little unlucky in SNE this year despite a half-decent pattern...NNE will get a huge storm they've been craving later in the winter where SNE gets skunked...powderfreak will not be able to contain his glee as BOS-ORH-PSM-TOL-HFD are all cold rain and he's posting pics of 20" of high QPF snow. I do think December will be solid for all and we finally get a "clean" white Christmas for most of the region. February turns to garbage until later in the month. This is completely for entertainment only as I honestly don't think there is much skill in predicting our snowfall in this type of weak ENSO regime

 

Anyway, here it is:

ORH 61

BOS 40

PVD 34

BDL 44

BDR 22

PSF 69

ALB 57

BVT 87

CON 66

PORTLAND 72

CAR 139

KGNX 51

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5....epic battle that comes down to the end, but Ray barely holds on after building a big lead in December and survives a late season comeback and some unorthodox measuring by Kevin.

 

A few more for fun:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Tamarack: 109...posts about how good the snowpack is in January but then gets disappointed during the February La Nina thaw that he won't challenge his modern day non-Fort Kent record of 49 inches....then almost makes a come back with the late February NNE blockbuster, but too much settling in the week after before the next event keeps the record elusive for another year. Posts musings about March 1984.

Powderfreak: 128...town, not ski resort...but there will plenty of upslope events where he's posting pics of the ski resort to himself 5 or 6 times before anyone else responds.

Dendrite: 86...gets a bit grumpy during the later season NNE blockbuster as he's on the line and gets a lot of taint while wxeyeNH gets buried. He pretends that he's happy because it will be easier on his chickens, but he's secretly enraged and then logs off for a few hours when Eek posts that he got more snow than him.

KScooter: 41...has a mild meltdown during December advisory event where he gets marine taint...but then makes it up a week later with a 12/20/08-style CJ

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

Moneypitmike: 75....finally beats ORH for the first time in almost a decade. But still has at least 2 epic meltdowns over QPF...one of them in a storm he ends up jackpotting in when the mesoband sets up right over him.

AccordionManCory: 42....includes an absolutely epic rant over a storm that wasn't really forecasted to jackpot him anyway. But he does get a legit 4" per hour snowfall this year and posts a video ripping out a few tunes in the middle of it.

Kwxfella: 46...makes 137 references to either 1970-1971 or 1993-1994 during the good gradient pattern in December...with 65 of them occurring at the Boston December GTG as we are tracking a snow event, then turns on the winter violently in February during the long thaw and says this winter should never be mentioned in the same sentences as those ones. He does get a marginal advisory event late in the year where his extra 100 feet of elevation pays dividends vs the rest of Boston.

WxmanMitch: 145.....finally lives in the weenie plot up near Woodford, VT. The first year doesn't disappoint. He gets enough spillover from upslope to juice his totals, but still does well on any system with an easterly flow component.

 

 

Not sure if I'm the "new guy from NC" but I'm a new guy from NC and last winter (my first winter back in New England since 1983) was incredible.  Apparently it was incredible, but only to me and maybe some one else who moved here from NC last year.  There can't be many of us.

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28 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

Not sure if I'm the "new guy from NC" but I'm a new guy from NC and last winter (my first winter back in New England since 1983) was incredible.  Apparently it was incredible, but only to me and maybe some one else who moved here from NC last year.  There can't be many of us.

It's actually a meteorologist from NC. I didn't see you post much so I didn't know you were recently remigrated from NC. But welcome back! 

His handle is wxblue:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50451-20172018-new-england-cities-snowfall-predictions/?do=findComment&comment=4661111

 

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Somehow I didn't see this thread until now. I'm thinking an average to above average year across most of New England with the biggest totals in NNE along and east of the Green Mountains.

ORH: 82"   

BOS: 58"

PVD: 47" 

BDL: 53" 

BDR: 38"

PSF: 85"

ALB: 68"

BTV: 76" 

CON: 94"

PWM: 88"

CAR: 134"

My new location: 135".

My old location (Lenox, MA): 86". 

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On 11/8/2017 at 2:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Because he was all rain in this last event, he's already declared this forecast a bust. ;)

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Why not through something in.  Analogies (in no particular order)1950-51; 1954-55; 1964-65; 2000-01; 1995-96; 1983-84; 1984-85; 2005-06; 2008-09. Snowfall is a crapshoot. Went with a colder than normal December and March (maybe a bit too extreme in March). Going with a very cold start to January and a milder finish (if warmth comes sooner then I'm way off. If later then I might take another degree or two off. Pretty confident about February, except may be a bit too warm. Guess 2000-01 is my "favorite" analog. Part science, part voodoo. All in fun.

location snow    departure from normal

                         D      J         F        M

ORH     94       -3.6   -2.1    +3.6   -4.3

BOS     63

PVD     62

BDL     68

PSF    114

ALB     92

BVT    134

CON    92

PORT  103

CAR    178

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BTV had 100 inches last season primarily due to the 30 inches with the Pi Day storm. I am not sure how many times they have recorded back to back 100 inch seasons.

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20 minutes ago, eyewall said:

BTV had 100 inches last season primarily due to the 30 inches with the Pi Day storm. I am not sure how many times they have recorded back to back 100 inch seasons.

Twice. '69-'70 through '71-'72, and '92-'93/'93-'94. 

They came real close to putting up five straight starting with '06-'07, 94.6", 120.2", 91.4", 96.5", and 128.4"

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On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2017 at 2:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

would it surprise you to know in 1956 Car got 83 inches while PWM got 116, I have some method to my madness, just don't write dissertations on it. Look up 67 too

That's happened 8 times in the 78 years of records at CAR, but only twice since 1970-71, the other being 1995-96.  That huge reversal of fortune in 92-93 is about the same as in 1955-56.

Some silly calculating:
So far, 13 guess lists have been posted here, which doesn't include Ray's far more thorough outlook, posted 4 days after this thread opened but probably 99% in place by then.  Below are the averages for the 11 NWS sites.  For better or worse, I've not included codfish's record-burying list.  First number is the 12-post average, 2nd is Ray's range, 3rd the lows-highs among the 12.

ORH    74.9     65-75    58-95

BOS     51.7    45-55    39-68

PVD     40.3    37-47     29-62

BDL     55.1    50-60     35-72

BDR     30.2     N/A      21-41

PSF      91.0     N/A      69-115 

ALB      69.8    50-60    50-92

BTV    100.2    70-80    75-134

CON     81.8    72-82    63-98

PWM    87.3    65-75    60-115

CAR    128.8     N/A      90-178

The "wisdom of the crowd" stayed within Ray's ranges for the 4 major SNE sites, though another optimistic guess for ORH could slide it over the top.  Farther north and west, CON snuck in but everywhere else came in higher than Ray's outlook.  Compared to 30-year norms (4 from SNE and 4 from NNE), all of the 12-poster averages run AN, from about 110% at BDL and CAR to nearly 140% for PWM.

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44 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That's happened 8 times in the 78 years of records at CAR, but only twice since 1970-71, the other being 1995-96.  That huge reversal of fortune in 92-93 is about the same as in 1955-56.

Some silly calculating:
So far, 13 guess lists have been posted here, which doesn't include Ray's far more thorough outlook, posted 4 days after this thread opened but probably 99% in place by then.  Below are the averages for the 11 NWS sites.  For better or worse, I've not included codfish's record-burying list.  First number is the 12-post average, 2nd is Ray's range, 3rd the lows-highs among the 12.

ORH    74.9     65-75    58-95

BOS     51.7    45-55    39-68

PVD     40.3    37-47     29-62

BDL     55.1    50-60     35-72

BDR     30.2     N/A      21-41

PSF      91.0     N/A      69-115 

ALB      69.8    50-60    50-92

BTV    100.2    70-80    75-134

CON     81.8    72-82    63-98

PWM    87.3    65-75    60-115

CAR    128.8     N/A      90-178

The "wisdom of the crowd" stayed within Ray's ranges for the 4 major SNE sites, though another optimistic guess for ORH could slide it over the top.  Farther north and west, CON snuck in but everywhere else came in higher than Ray's outlook.  Compared to 30-year norms (4 from SNE and 4 from NNE), all of the 12-poster averages run AN, from about 110% at BDL and CAR to nearly 140% for PWM.

Nice synopsis and comparative stats. Thanks, we pray

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On 11/8/2017 at 0:11 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Mezza mezza

ORH 72

BOS 41

PVD 39

BDL 59

BDR 24

PSF 88

ALB 90

BVT 132

CON 89

PORTLAND 109

CAR 152

KGNX 59

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 71     KDIT 75

 

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