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Ginx snewx

2017/2018 New England Cities Snowfall Predictions

79 posts in this topic

My pics, feel free to toss yours up here

ORH 80

BOS 57

PVD 42

BDL 70

BDR 26

PSF 100

ALB 77

BVT 120

CON 95

PORTLAND 115

CAR 127

KGNX 59

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 73      KDIT 73.5

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24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not a ratter, but BN for many

ORH 62

BOS 48

PVD 36

BDL 59

BDR 21

PSF 90

ALB 50

BVT 95

CON 82

PORTLAND 70

CAR 140

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 55      KDIT 60

HUBB  68

 

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39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My pics, feel free to toss yours up here

ORH 80

BOS 57

PVD 42

BDL 70

BDR 26

PSF 100

ALB 77

BVT 120

CON 95

PORTLAND 115

CAR 127

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 73      KDIT 73.5

I would gladly take 115 @ PWM...that's way AN.  Curious to what's leading you to think that way?

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43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We go big or we go home.

ORH 95

BOS 66

PVD 44

BDL 72

BDR 39

PSF 115

ALB 81

BVT 105

CON 98

PORTLAND 108

CAR 144

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 88     KDIT 87.9

DXR 71

 

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CAR screw jobs?

Lot of PSF love too...they average like 72-74.

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CAR screw jobs?

uniformity could have gone higher, thinking strong enough NAO to put meat into Central Maine

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57 minutes ago, tunafish said:

I would gladly take 115 @ PWM...that's way AN.  Curious to what's leading you to think that way?

Analogs  I used for you, each area of NE has slightly different analogs to me with some accounting for a warmer background. Never going to get too specific but its a mix and match, worked out well last year for me

  1971  141  
  1996    123  
  1956 116  
       
       
  1967 106  
       
  2008 103  
       

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No ALB love for '70-'71 redux?

 

 

each area of NE has slightly different analogs to me with some accounting for a warmer background. Never going to get too specific but its a mix and match, worked out well last year for me

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

CAR screw jobs?

Looks like it - 180% average for PWM, 110% for CAR.  Could happen; in 2009-10 BWI got over 400% of avg while CAR languished at 60% (and 7" less than BWI.)

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20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Looks like it - 180% average for PWM, 110% for CAR.  Could happen; in 2009-10 BWI got over 400% of avg while CAR languished at 60% (and 7" less than BWI.)

would it surprise you to know in 1956 Car got 83 inches while PWM got 116, I have some method to my madness, just don't write dissertations on it. Look up 67 too

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We've been lucky recently...esp in SNE...so I'm going to make my guesses based on we get a little unlucky in SNE this year despite a half-decent pattern...NNE will get a huge storm they've been craving later in the winter where SNE gets skunked...powderfreak will not be able to contain his glee as BOS-ORH-PSM-TOL-HFD are all cold rain and he's posting pics of 20" of high QPF snow. I do think December will be solid for all and we finally get a "clean" white Christmas for most of the region. February turns to garbage until later in the month. This is completely for entertainment only as I honestly don't think there is much skill in predicting our snowfall in this type of weak ENSO regime

 

Anyway, here it is:

ORH 61

BOS 40

PVD 34

BDL 44

BDR 22

PSF 69

ALB 57

BVT 87

CON 66

PORTLAND 72

CAR 139

KGNX 51

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5....epic battle that comes down to the end, but Ray barely holds on after building a big lead in December and survives a late season comeback and some unorthodox measuring by Kevin.

 

A few more for fun:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Tamarack: 109...posts about how good the snowpack is in January but then gets disappointed during the February La Nina thaw that he won't challenge his modern day non-Fort Kent record of 49 inches....then almost makes a come back with the late February NNE blockbuster, but too much settling in the week after before the next event keeps the record elusive for another year. Posts musings about March 1984.

Powderfreak: 128...town, not ski resort...but there will plenty of upslope events where he's posting pics of the ski resort to himself 5 or 6 times before anyone else responds.

Dendrite: 86...gets a bit grumpy during the later season NNE blockbuster as he's on the line and gets a lot of taint while wxeyeNH gets buried. He pretends that he's happy because it will be easier on his chickens, but he's secretly enraged and then logs off for a few hours when Eek posts that he got more snow than him.

KScooter: 41...has a mild meltdown during December advisory event where he gets marine taint...but then makes it up a week later with a 12/20/08-style CJ

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

Moneypitmike: 75....finally beats ORH for the first time in almost a decade. But still has at least 2 epic meltdowns over QPF...one of them in a storm he ends up jackpotting in when the mesoband sets up right over him.

AccordionManCory: 42....includes an absolutely epic rant over a storm that wasn't really forecasted to jackpot him anyway. But he does get a legit 4" per hour snowfall this year and posts a video ripping out a few tunes in the middle of it.

Kwxfella: 46...makes 137 references to either 1970-1971 or 1993-1994 during the good gradient pattern in December...with 65 of them occurring at the Boston December GTG as we are tracking a snow event, then turns on the winter violently in February during the long thaw and says this winter should never be mentioned in the same sentences as those ones. He does get a marginal advisory event late in the year where his extra 100 feet of elevation pays dividends vs the rest of Boston.

WxmanMitch: 145.....finally lives in the weenie plot up near Woodford, VT. The first year doesn't disappoint. He gets enough spillover from upslope to juice his totals, but still does well on any system with an easterly flow component.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We've been lucky recently...esp in SNE...so I'm going to make my guesses based on we get a little unlucky in SNE this year despite a half-decent pattern...NNE will get a huge storm they've been craving later in the winter where SNE gets skunked...powderfreak will not be able to contain his glee as BOS-ORH-PSM-TOL-HFD are all cold rain and he's posting pics of 20" of high QPF snow. I do think December will be solid for all and we finally get a "clean" white Christmas for most of the region. February turns to garbage until later in the month. This is completely for entertainment only as I honestly don't think there is much skill in predicting our snowfall in this type of weak ENSO regime

 

Anyway, here it is:

ORH 61

BOS 40

PVD 34

BDL 44

BDR 22

PSF 69

ALB 57

BVT 87

CON 66

PORTLAND 72

CAR 139

KGNX 51

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5....epic battle that comes down to the end, but Ray barely holds on after building a big lead in December and survives a late season comeback and some unorthodox measuring by Kevin.

 

A few more for fun:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Tamarack: 109...posts about how good the snowpack is in January but then gets disappointed during the February La Nina thaw that he won't challenge his modern day non-Fort Kent record of 49 inches....then almost makes a come back with the late February NNE blockbuster, but too much settling in the week after before the next event keeps the record elusive for another year. Posts musings about March 1984.

Powderfreak: 128...town, not ski resort...but there will plenty of upslope events where he's posting pics of the ski resort to himself 5 or 6 times before anyone else responds.

Dendrite: 86...gets a bit grumpy during the later season NNE blockbuster as he's on the line and gets a lot of taint while wxeyeNH gets buried. He pretends that he's happy because it will be easier on his chickens, but he's secretly enraged and then logs off for a few hours when Eek posts that he got more snow than him.

KScooter: 41...has a mild meltdown during December advisory event where he gets marine taint...but then makes it up a week later with a 12/20/08-style CJ

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

Moneypitmike: 75....finally beats ORH for the first time in almost a decade. But still has at least 2 epic meltdowns over QPF...one of them in a storm he ends up jackpotting in when the mesoband sets up right over him.

AccordionManCory: 42....includes an absolutely epic rant over a storm that wasn't really forecasted to jackpot him anyway. But he does get a legit 4" per hour snowfall this year and posts a video ripping out a few tunes in the middle of it.

Kwxfella: 46...makes 137 references to either 1970-1971 or 1993-1994 during the good gradient pattern in December...with 65 of them occurring at the Boston December GTG as we are tracking a snow event, then turns on the winter violently in February during the long thaw and says this winter should never be mentioned in the same sentences as those ones. He does get a marginal advisory event late in the year where his extra 100 feet of elevation pays dividends vs the rest of Boston.

WxmanMitch: 145.....finally lives in the weenie plot up near Woodford, VT. The first year doesn't disappoint. He gets enough spillover from upslope to juice his totals, but still does well on any system with an easterly flow component.

 

 

wow Will this is a first and awesome addons lol, this is great. LOL, good luck, actually not that good. To follow along with your predictions

KWILL 44 but sends pictures of his old hometown with snow up to the picket fence across the street, leaves the wife and kid for Winter Hill at least 4 times this winter to escape the rain snow line. Pukes T snow at Weenie Ridge while 99 % of SNE pours

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

wow Will this is a first and awesome addons lol, this is great. LOL, good luck, actually not that good. To follow along with your predictions

KWILL 44 but sends pictures of his old hometown with snow up to the picket fence across the street, leaves the wife and kid for Winter Hill at least 4 times this winter to escape the rain snow line. Pukes T snow while 99 5 of SNE pours

LOL...probably true.

Though I'd prob go more like 51-53 for MYBY based on my other amounts. No way I'd get the same as BDL and less than Jerry.

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All the years Kevin busted Wills balls about not putting up numbers, well now the ball is in Kevs court, put um up or shut up as he used to say.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

would it surprise you to know in 1956 Car got 83 inches while PWM got 116, I have some method to my madness, just don't write dissertations on it. Look up 67 too

Not a bit surprising.  Without looking it up, I'd guess that PWM out-snows CAR in 10-15% of winters.  In '67 I even topped 100 in NNJ, though it took the surprise 3" on 4/27 to get there.

And to Will:  That was awesome, pegged me perfectly.  But you forgot Jeff's 99.9" with laments about missing 100 while putting 2,500 miles on his sled.

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7 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

My pics, feel free to toss yours up here

ORH 75

BOS 57

PVD 47

BDL 69

BDR 45

PSF 105

ALB 79

BVT 105

CON 87

PORTLAND 100

CAR 130

KGNX 63

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 75     KDIT 73

KNYC 40

 

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We've been lucky recently...esp in SNE...so I'm going to make my guesses based on we get a little unlucky in SNE this year despite a half-decent pattern...NNE will get a huge storm they've been craving later in the winter where SNE gets skunked...powderfreak will not be able to contain his glee as BOS-ORH-PSM-TOL-HFD are all cold rain and he's posting pics of 20" of high QPF snow. I do think December will be solid for all and we finally get a "clean" white Christmas for most of the region. February turns to garbage until later in the month. This is completely for entertainment only as I honestly don't think there is much skill in predicting our snowfall in this type of weak ENSO regime

 

Anyway, here it is:

ORH 61

BOS 40

PVD 34

BDL 44

BDR 22

PSF 69

ALB 57

BVT 87

CON 66

PORTLAND 72

CAR 139

KGNX 51

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 54.0      KDIT 53.5....epic battle that comes down to the end, but Ray barely holds on after building a big lead in December and survives a late season comeback and some unorthodox measuring by Kevin.

 

A few more for fun:

Lavarock: Bitches his way to 93"....almost causes Oceanstwx to delete his account during one high impact storm.

Tamarack: 109...posts about how good the snowpack is in January but then gets disappointed during the February La Nina thaw that he won't challenge his modern day non-Fort Kent record of 49 inches....then almost makes a come back with the late February NNE blockbuster, but too much settling in the week after before the next event keeps the record elusive for another year. Posts musings about March 1984.

Powderfreak: 128...town, not ski resort...but there will plenty of upslope events where he's posting pics of the ski resort to himself 5 or 6 times before anyone else responds.

Dendrite: 86...gets a bit grumpy during the later season NNE blockbuster as he's on the line and gets a lot of taint while wxeyeNH gets buried. He pretends that he's happy because it will be easier on his chickens, but he's secretly enraged and then logs off for a few hours when Eek posts that he got more snow than him.

KScooter: 41...has a mild meltdown during December advisory event where he gets marine taint...but then makes it up a week later with a 12/20/08-style CJ

New guy from North Carolina: 73....he will be like aviationDave when he moved from VA to NH for a few winters...thinking even a crappy winter was amazing in 2006-2007...except this will be slightly above average so it will be like the winter apocalypse to him. It will be like an entire 4 months straight of February 2015 in Boston to him.

Moneypitmike: 75....finally beats ORH for the first time in almost a decade. But still has at least 2 epic meltdowns over QPF...one of them in a storm he ends up jackpotting in when the mesoband sets up right over him.

AccordionManCory: 42....includes an absolutely epic rant over a storm that wasn't really forecasted to jackpot him anyway. But he does get a legit 4" per hour snowfall this year and posts a video ripping out a few tunes in the middle of it.

Kwxfella: 46...makes 137 references to either 1970-1971 or 1993-1994 during the good gradient pattern in December...with 65 of them occurring at the Boston December GTG as we are tracking a snow event, then turns on the winter violently in February during the long thaw and says this winter should never be mentioned in the same sentences as those ones. He does get a marginal advisory event late in the year where his extra 100 feet of elevation pays dividends vs the rest of Boston.

WxmanMitch: 145.....finally lives in the weenie plot up near Woodford, VT. The first year doesn't disappoint. He gets enough spillover from upslope to juice his totals, but still does well on any system with an easterly flow component.

 

 

I'd be happy with 93"....er, wait, maybe not. I just need to be more patient with incoming storms and complain less. But what fun would that be.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Does 145" for Mitch beat jspin this year?

 

I think Mitch’s location definitely has the potential to take the top spot for snowfall – it’s got a lot of things going for it, with one of the most potent being that ridiculous elevation.  But using Will’s numbers for PF and Mitch at face value with a “typical” weather pattern, I don’t think 145” would do it.  Just looking at the past seasons on Kevin’s AmWx/NE Snow website, and using averages, if PF is at 128” in Stowe Village, then snowfall could easily be pushing 200” here.  There are seasons where PF’s snowfall and the snowfall here are much closer than that however, I think it just depends on how much of the snow is synoptic vs. upslope.  But Mitch’s location is likely going to get upslope as well, which adds another layer of complexity.  And don’t forget Alex’s location – last season was just the first one in which he documented the snowfall there, and it was very close to what I recorded here, so his spot should easily be in contention as well.  All in all, it’s great that we keep adding more NNE sites with big snowfall, since it just makes the whole recording process even more interesting and comprehensive.  Last year was definitely a good one for the NNE crew though – they took the top 10 spots in Kevin’s list.

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Wild azz guess. I think the interior will do well compared to coast, but coast will be ok. We are sort of due for a light 00-01. If I had to guess the error..it would be coast doing better. 

 

 

ORH 75

BOS 50

PVD 38

BDL 48

BDR 26

PSF 84

ALB 70

BTV 90

CON 85

PORTLAND 90

CAR 130

KGNX 50

RAY VERSUS KEV     KGAY: 60      KDIT 65

 

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4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I think Mitch’s location definitely has the potential to take the top spot for snowfall – it’s got a lot of things going for it, with one of the most potent being that ridiculous elevation.  But using Will’s numbers for PF and Mitch at face value with a “typical” weather pattern, I don’t think 145” would do it.  Just looking at the past seasons on Kevin’s AmWx/NE Snow website, and using averages, if PF is at 128” in Stowe Village, then snowfall could easily be pushing 200” here.  There are seasons where PF’s snowfall and the snowfall here are much closer than that however, I think it just depends on how much of the snow is synoptic vs. upslope.  But Mitch’s location is likely going to get upslope as well, which adds another layer of complexity.  And don’t forget Alex’s location – last season was just the first one in which he documented the snowfall there, and it was very close to what I recorded here, so his spot should easily be in contention as well.  All in all, it’s great that we keep adding more NNE sites with big snowfall, since it just makes the whole recording process even more interesting and comprehensive.  Last year was definitely a good one for the NNE crew though – they took the top 10 spots in Kevin’s list.

I was just responding to Dendrites post when i saw yours. I pretty much agree, if the pattern yields 145" for Mitch, than more than likely you would be higher. I mean your average is like 155" or something right over the past 11 years?

The bulk of his snow is still going to come from synoptic I think.  The key is like you said to see how well he does in the Upslope category.  Woodford VT(2303') by my best guess had around 150-175" last year going by what they reported to WeatherNet(they don't total them up unfortunately, so no way to know for sure) But like we talked about in another thread a few weeks back, Woodford probably does better in Upslope being right at the crest and further west than Mitch being a little further SE. I guess we will see when the snow starts flying.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Does 145" for Mitch beat jspin this year?

Ha!  When I first read Will's post (which is pure awesomeness) I was thinking I would've added a line that says, "J.Spin gets 179 inches of snow to fall from the sky with measurable snow falling on 87% of the days this winter from every passing cloud, which causes Dendrite to comment on the snowpack and is followed by paragraphs from Tamarack about snow depth days."

I also think Alex in Bretton Woods on the NW slope gets similar snowfall to J.Spin in terms of actual inches that fall from the sky but also has Gene/Wxeye wondering about snow depths.

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