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Nate


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7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

This one is coming in pretty similar to Katrina, as far as track. Will be interesting to see how the New Orleans levees do. 

Hopefully the heaviest rains will be east of there and the fast forward speed should help mitigate extreme totals.  NOLA levees have weathered some canes since Katrina rather well.  I am more concerned now with not all of the pumps being operational within the city although it is supposed to be slightly over 90 per cent.

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14 hours ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Which to me seems like will be very difficult as fast as the system is moving. Probably not an easy thing to track down but does anyone know of a system that underwent RI with a forward speed this fast? Even anecdotally? I can't think of one.

I was pondering this yesterday. I have never seen a tropical cyclone RI when moving over 20 knots and especially not 23 knots. It would be an unique happenstance if Nate did it but when I saw the 5:15 - 6:15 UTC frames come in early this morning my enthusiasm for the idea was dashed. That was the exact time when Nate signaled that steady to quick strengthening was on the menu. That might be the fastest rate possible (increase of 35 knots in 24 hours) for a TC moving 23 knots forward speed.

 

EDIT: Yes I see what was just posted above me lol. I think we're so used to explosive rates that what is RI and what is not is skewed now. I was thinking rate increases of 20 knots in 6 hours when I posted.

 

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I don't recall 30 kts or more of intensification within 24 hrs in a developing tropical cyclone with a forward motion if 22+ mph. Charley was moving around 20 mph when it deepened 25 mb and the winds increased 30 kts. But it was already a well-organized hurricane with a symmetrical core when its forward motion increased rapidly. There are plenty of examples of baroclinic cyclones.

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2 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

garden variety nonmajor.  i don't see what the hype is all about, tbh.

Probably because the angle of attack and location of landfall, roughly around high tide, is going to produce a pretty damaging storm surge for an area that really doesn't ever need another hit after Katrina. Also, people have downplayed this system and now it's going to be stronger than many, the general public, originally thought. So try not to sound like a pompous ***hole, if you can.

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Just now, Calderon said:

Probably because the angle of attack and location of landfall, roughly around high tide, is going to produce a pretty damaging storm surge for an area that really doesn't ever need another hit after Katrina. Also, people have downplayed this system and now it's going to be stronger than many, the general public, originally thought. So try not to sound like a pompous ***hole, if you can.

 i am sure it will be awful for some, but at least in this thread, the pendulum has swung towards too much hype. it's a small cane with an asymmetric weird core coming ashore in the NGOM.  this isn't a blockbuster.

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6 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

garden variety nonmajor.  i don't see what the hype is all about, tbh.

With the rapid forward motion, intensification process continuing up to landfall I feel the winds are going to overproduce to the right of the center for this garden variety storm.

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13 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

garden variety nonmajor.  i don't see what the hype is all about, tbh.

It's not Andrew, that's for sure.  I wouldn't minimize a strengthening storm in the 100mph range though.  It will be a major wind impact for a small area that is hit by the core.

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7 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

what would your definition of overproduce be? we can go back after the fact and see what happened.

Over produce in the minds of Joe Average in the Biluxi to Mobile Bay area.  As someone that chased Katrina I feel that most people along the Gulf today are not really worried about a Cat 1.  In my humble opinion I think there is going to be some substantial wind damage in the right front quad of this fast moving storm.  Sure, this is not a major but its not a slowly filling in Cat 1 either.  Time will tell...

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Just now, bobbutts said:

It's not Andrew, that's for sure.  I wouldn't minimize a strengthening storm in the 100mph range though.  It will be a major wind impact for a small area that is hit by the core.

there maybe will be a few gusts above 100 that are actually recorded onshore.  it's like this season has made people forget that nonmajors exist and they usually dont do catastrophic damage.

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1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said:

see...this is what i am pushing back against...people don't understand that forward speed is already factored into max wind speeds...smdh

Correct.  The best-track wind speed estimates are ground-relative, not system-relative.

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3 minutes ago, winterymix said:

It isnt intensifying much.   Eye is a bit open and has clouded over.

If it is moving 24 mph, shear is generated relative to the surrounding air mass, enough shear to put a clutch on intensification.

The system motion itself does not generate shear.  Shear is actually weak right now because there is 20-25 kt of wind throughout the depth of the troposphere, so the speed and direction changes little with height.

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1 minute ago, Calderon said:

Which is fine to push back against, but your earlier comments are why I got fired up because it seems like you're minimizing a hurricane who's most potent threat will be a sudden potential storm surge rise for an area where surge can penetrate a couple miles inland and it doesn't take much.

you have a history of getting fired up so i didn't take it personally.  the thread needed a dose of sanity.  after all, this is a science board.

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Kush trying to make up for his downplaying PR? Cat 2 strengthening will be a big impact to the small areas it hits, big inland worry with winds due to rapid movement and Tornado threats. Those 6 to 11 ft  surge values are 90th% so that's a 1 in 10 chance. Somebody's going to get raked pretty good for sure 

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Well for those searching for other info on hurricane  that DO live in mobile Bay... Work in new Orleans Biloxi and pcola...Yeah we're watching everything that is said on here... Because even if it IS a "garden variety  hyped up nothing"...  It's still my family.. My dogs.. My home... My businesses.... I went through Frederick Katrina Ivan... We all have lost alot here on the gulf coast.. so if the hurricane doesn't concern you ... And it's a hyped up garden variety then why waste your time talking about it at all?

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5 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Fast moving storms will tend to do less damage than a same size, same intensity storm in all aspects. Less rain, less surge piling and less wind over a defined region.

This is plausible, given that the left quadrant winds are going to be weaker, and the potentially reduced rainfall totals.

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