andyhb Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 983 mb extrap pressure from recon, that is a hell of a drop from last update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: 983 mb extrap pressure from recon, that is a hell of a drop from last update. More than likely a hurricane already as well, will be interesting to see the winds though to confirm but it wouldn't shock me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Along with what was just said, its also worth nothing that it seems central winds are picking up in accordance with the developing core of convection. Remember the void of any wind above 20kts this morning all around the central region? Nate is in much better shape to intensify rather quickly now that its crossed off some of the basics./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 18Z GFS seems to have a more wound up Nate at landfall and didn't initialize as strong as the system is currently. Can some of the better model readers analyze and give thoughts if time permits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, andyhb said: 983 mb extrap pressure from recon, that is a hell of a drop from last update. Looks like this reading may have been an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 The NOAA2 that got that 983 MB EXTRAP pressure is continuing on for sounding data for tonight's model runs. Air Force Hurricane Hunter AF307 is currently en route to obtain specific vortex and quadrant data. Should be there within an the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Dropsonde measuring 994 mb confirms the extrap pressure was an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Dropsonde measuring 994 mb confirms the extrap pressure was an error.Well that is sigh of relief that rapid intensification is not yet underway. I still expect steady intensification over night with the deeper convection and hot towers going up around the organizing core. We'll see what is really going on with Nate's vortex when AF307 gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 A 10 mb drop did seem odd considering the center is still within a broad area in between the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 I would not be surprised to find Nate reaching cat-3 intensity by 18z Saturday then making a landfall as cat-2, Mobile Bay could be in a prime position for storm surge with possible dual landfalls se LA and MS. My reasoning is that Nate already showing steady improvement in organization and will be done with any land interaction by 06z then entering a zone of central GOM where rapid intensification has occurred many times in the past. It has the look of a stronger system than just cat-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 NOAA2 found flight level wind speeds of hurricane force in the eastern quadrant on the latest pass. Pressure down to 992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Also these are a very similar flight path at a very short time differential. Significant increase in FL wind here. (NOAA 2 when it flew in from the north) (Air Force when it flew in from the north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 New recon dropsonde says 991 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I can see a strong cat 1 or cat 2 at landfall. Thinking an impact maybe similar to Hurricane Erin (1995) on the Gulf Coast. Practically same size and strength at landfall, based off my predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Another day to get it's act together and Nate would have been big trouble. Luckily it's hauling ass andI can't recall having seen a storm move NNW at 22mph at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Man, convection is going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 George, I still think this comes in as a cat 2...you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: George, I still think this comes in as a cat 2...you? 95mph at LF....my guess....+/- 20mph....lol!!!!!!!!!!!!! Edit: A bit of a impossibility (officially) in my forecast LF wind speed. Who can guess why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, convection is going to town. Yeah it looks like it's building over the center probably means it will intensify fast in the next 12-18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 That's a real nice convective blowup in the last hour, but the convection to the south of the center has been chasing the center all afternoon/evening. The core won't be able to tighten up and really deepen until the deep convection can wrap over the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: That's a real nice convective blowup in the last hour, but the convection to the south of the center has been chasing the center all afternoon/evening. The core won't be able to tighten up and really deepen until the deep convection can wrap over the center. Which to me seems like will be very difficult as fast as the system is moving. Probably not an easy thing to track down but does anyone know of a system that underwent RI with a forward speed this fast? Even anecdotally? I can't think of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 95mph at LF....my guess....+/- 20mph....lol!!!!!!!!!!!!! Edit: A bit of a impossibility (officially) in my forecast LF wind speed. Who can guess why? 80 kts = 92.06 mph - round down to 90 mph 85 kts = 97.8 mph - round up to 100 mph. nothing rounds to 95 mph. kind of a quirk in the system that has to happen at a couple points in the grand realm of 65 kt to 160 kt or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 The latest convection is larger and more intense than any seen today, and also appears to be jumping north, perhaps over the center. Recon just passed through and found the center has moved nearly due north since the last pass. Perhaps the intense convection, which is surging up from the southeast, is tugging on the center, trying to pull it under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 New 11pm down to 990mb and up to 70mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 recon finding 80kt FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Amped said: recon finding 80kt FL winds. Yeah it is more than likely a hurricane now. Next update will be upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 What on earth is happening here? did the center jump north that much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Yeah, this thing is really flying nnw. Recon now found 89 kts at flight level. There are several SFMR readings of hurricane force, but they are all flagged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Nate has rapidly improved on IR. - 90C tops showing up. Recon also finding an improved wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Final Call..no big changes to landfall intensity from Wednesday, but slight shift west: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/10/nate-accelerates-towards-north-gulf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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