Tropical Storm Jose

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

How Is able to fly? Anything disrespectful to the Irma victims was getting deleted during the storm.

Long Beach had more damage then anywhere in the entire mainland of Florida and similar damage as the Keys. And that's just one of hundreds of examples.

Sandy dwarfs Irma in terms of impacts in the US.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Paragon said:

big difference between how that affects Florida and NY (how would a Mag 6-7 earthquake effect Fla vs Ca?)- no power for me for 25 hours and I was one of the lucky ones, some people didn't have power for weeks or months.  Also the surge was close to 10 ft here in western Long Island and up to 17-20 feet in NYC, that's a much higher surge than one would expect with those winds. 

 

The vast majority of Sandy's damage was from surge, not wind. Sandy would've been devastating in any surge prone area. 

[Paragon]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The vast majority of Sandy's damage was from surge, not wind. Sandy would've been devastating in any surge prone area. 

Also we mustn't forget that Sandy had the largest IKE of any Atlantic storm in history by a large margin- that is far more important than peak winds and is what caused the huge surge.  Plus 90-95 mph winds for over 12 hours- duration matters more.

 

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The vast majority of Sandy's damage was from surge, not wind. Sandy would've been devastating in any surge prone area. 

Sandy also struck during an astronomically high tide. Most of the damage inland was due to falling trees and power lines. A tree fell and missed one of our engines by ten feet while we were out investigating downed power lines. The flash from the exploding transformers was reminiscent of what you might see from an approaching squall line on a warm summer night.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Sandy also struck during an astronomically high tide. Most of the damage inland was due to falling trees and power lines. A tree fell and missed one of our engines by ten feet while we were out investigating downed power lines. The flash from the exploding transformers was reminiscent of what you might see from an approaching squall line on a warm summer night.

Honestly the only thing that was a "let down" with Sandy (if you can call it that lol) was only getting around an inch of rain.  Irene was more exciting in terms of rainfall.  One day I want to experience a 10-12" rainfall with 100mph winds- hopefully not in the near future though lol.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Honestly the only thing that was a "let down" with Sandy (if you can call it that lol) was only getting around an inch of rain.  Irene was more exciting in terms of rainfall.  One day I want to experience a 10-12" rainfall with 100mph winds- hopefully not in the near future though lol.

That's very typical of high latitude transitioning cyclones. North of the center was dry and windy, South was wet and calmer. If you remember the biggest story South of the LF point was the big snow in the Apps.

[MJO812]

18z Navgem

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's very typical of high latitude transitioning cyclones. North of the center was dry and windy, South was wet and calmer. If you remember the biggest story South of the LF point was the big snow in the Apps.

Yes, I think West Virginia got over 20"!  I remember that was the first thing I saw on TV after my power came back on lol.  I notice that effect west and east of the center too- east of the center it's windier and west of the center it's rainier (Gloria, Bob, Floyd, Irene, etc.)

[Baroclinic Zone]

May have been posted already but an intriguing cluster on the 18z GEFS just off the VA/NC coast.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Don, the center doesn't need to come ashore in order for this to be a damaging storm for the beaches. I think the probability of significant erosion and coastal flooding is increasing.

On that we agree. I think the large swells will result in beach erosion. Coastal flooding could occur especially with the coming new moon.

[DownpourDave]

V

[Amped]

A couple of those members just stall it over the Delmarva giving NJ NY PA a 60 hr event. 

[MJO812]

[NortheastPAWx]

42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's very typical of high latitude transitioning cyclones. North of the center was dry and windy, South was wet and calmer. If you remember the biggest story South of the LF point was the big snow in the Apps.

I was at Penn State when Sandy hit and we just missed that snow...was 40s and rain, though it snowed a bit that Tuesday. We had over 4" of rain.

[Paragon]

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On that we agree. I think the large swells will result in beach erosion. Coastal flooding could occur especially with the coming new moon.

Don, how close does the center need to be in order to get significant rainfall and wind on the coast? 200 miles?

 

[jbenedet]

18z GEFS mean was a 100 mile shift west through hr 138. 

This run definitely opens the door to the potential for more significant impacts.

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

I was at Penn State when Sandy hit and we just missed that snow...was 40s and rain, though it snowed a bit that Tuesday. We had over 4" of rain.

We got ours a week later with the remnant block still in place, an 8 inch heavy snowfall a week after Sandy- our earliest heavy snowfall (only got 2" here in the Octosnowstorm a year earlier, but 20" and thundersnow at my place in the Poconos.)

 

[bluewave]

The only really interesting part of the Jose forecast is when it phases with the remnant Irma vort in a few days. I am not sure if we have seen a an active hurricane off the East Coast absorb a remnant hurricane vort before.

 

Sheared out remnant Irma vort currently over SE PA

 

Gets absorbed into Jose and the wind field expands. But will this process result in any more of a tug closer to the coast than just a brush of the BM? Stay tuned..

 

 

[Z-Cast]

Again with this Sandy vs. X stuff? Is every single US 'Cane thread going to endure this? Take it to banter please...

With that said, Jose is tracking pretty south of the UKMET, GFS, CMC, and ECMWF's 6-12 hr forecast points. Possible west shift tonight?

[psv88]

My wife is 40 weeks pregnant and her due date is 9/20. Please no.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

23 minutes ago, Z-Cast said:

Again with this Sandy vs. X stuff? Is every single US 'Cane thread going to endure this? Take it to banter please...

With that said, Jose is tracking pretty south of the UKMET, GFS, CMC, and ECMWF's 6-12 hr forecast points. Possible west shift tonight?

What do you expect when someone from SE Florida says Sandy was no biggie in a thread for a hurricane that's a threat to the same area destroyed by said storm....

 

What I'm most interested in, is the state of Jose down the road. If he follows the Gulf Stream it a simple answer tropical but out to sea. If he does come closer in he's heading over cool shelf waters. Waters that normally disrupt storms that are hauling up the coast like Gloria. Those waters are even cooler then normal. ( I have been in them everyday for the last week) the cool start to September and the extended period of offshore flow and subsequent upwelling really dropped near shore temps. I would want to see ETT start as early as possible to take advantage of any enhanced baroclynicity that may be provided by the Irma vort. Otherwise I don't see how this is much more then a weak tropical storm 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Don, how close does the center need to be in order to get significant rainfall and wind on the coast? 200 miles?

 

There's no set distance so to speak. For example, predecessor rainfall events can be hundreds of miles from the center. Interaction with frontal boundaries, post-tropical transition, etc. can lead to significant rainfall well away from the center.

[Sportybx]

I got free legend suite tickets to the Yankees vs Twins on the 20th to ... I rather a hurricaine tho lol 

[WeatherFeen2000]

Fwiw the Nam 0z run at 84hrs has Jose way west of any model. Probably not worth much because it's the nam at 84 hrs but remember the blizzard of 2016

[CT Rain]

Well... that was interesting.

[Amped]

Looks like Rhode Island landfall this run @ 132.

[larrye]

00z GFS skims eastern Long Island late Tuesday/early Wednesday. This is getting interesting. Let's see what the Euro says.

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Well... that was interesting.

Slowing down the Baja Storm made a difference. Gulf ridge is much flatter.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Slowing down the Baja Storm made a difference. Gulf ridge is much flatter.

Looks to me that the difference is up in SE Canada. That trough near Hudson Bay is much flatter and the W Atlantic/Canadian Maritime ridge remains much stronger forcing Jose west. 

[olafminesaw]