Tropical Storm Jose

[NJwx85]

The Euro might be further East, but it's still not going to be a quick turn OTS. If anything, it looks basically stalled East of OBX on Monday night.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro is handling the western trough and TC vastly different than the GFS.

[NJwx85]

That's a pretty strong ridge to the Northeast

[NJwx85]

That's quite a massive wind field

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS and Euro remarkably close 12z Tues E of HAT.

[NJwx85]

This trough is either going to help steer Jose out at the last minute, or it's going to lift out, the ridge is going to build to the North and Jose is going to move Westward.

[SnoSki14]

The blocking isn't strong enough to force Jose further west like Sandy. There's still several days left so things could change a bit but don't see this as being more than a maritime threat. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12Z Euro shifted further east in the direction of the 0z EPS mean.

Slightly east

[MJO812]

Cmc gfs and Euro look similiar

 

Very close call

[NJwx85]

The difference with the Euro is the amplitude of the trough. The less amplified trough into the West coast led to a less amplified trough over SE Canada and thus Jose was pushed up and out rather than up and in.

[NJwx85]

12z EPS

[olafminesaw]

Most are either landfalls or pretty far from land 

 

[Windspeed]

High pressure over New Foundland may not be strong enough to block or force landfall, but given the potential size of Irma through days 4-7, such a setup would create a strong pressure gradient over coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England. The wave action could be quite strong and a big threat to shipping lanes and the fishing industry. Jose may remain a big slow moving nuisance north of 35 for days.

[Dan76]

17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

High pressure over New Foundland may not be strong enough to block or force landfall, but given the potential size of Irma through days 4-7, such a setup would create a strong pressure gradient over coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England. The wave action could be quite strong and a big threat to shipping lanes and the fishing industry. Jose may remain a big slow moving nuisance north of 35 for days.

 

Jose you mean?

[Windspeed]

Jose you mean?

D'oh! Yes, of course.

[RevWarReenactor]

The GFS track reminds me of Edouard from 96. Being on the jersey shore for that one, it was a dud, few clouds, I remember going to the beach and the sea was rough and the tide was a bit high, but overall, nothing to really write home about. I think Cape Cod felt it a bit more.

So if anyone thinks a grazer 150 miles out to sea delivers, it really doesn't.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The wave pattern of Atlantic tropics is such a consistent variable. A storm like Jose seems more likely after Irma/Harvey by a multiple of 5. There is probably a name for this index. 

I think the NHC track is good. The storm will probably not make landfall.  

[donsutherland1]

At 5 pm, Tropical Storm Jose was located at 25.2°N, 67.3°W. Over the past 18 hours, it had tracked approximately 130 kilometers to the west. At present, Jose is beginning to add a northerly component to its motion.

Overall, the overall weight of the guidance argues against U.S. landfall. A few more ECMWF ensemble members suggest landfall, but most don't. In terms of historic climatology, 25% of the August-September storms passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 pm position (1851-present) made U.S. landfall. That is somewhat higher than the 18% figure last night at 11 pm. One should reasonably have expected such an increased probability on account of Jose's closer proximity to the U.S. The increase is not sufficiently great to warrant much change in thinking, especially in light of the 12z guidance.

The probability of landfall in Canada remained greater than that for the United States. Newfoundland and Labrador remained about twice as likely to see landfall as Nova Scotia. Landfall in Canada was still somewhat lower than the prospect of Jose's not making any landfall.

So, at least for now, increasingly large swells and strong rip currents will likely be Jose's principal effects along much of the East Coast. The storm's strongest winds and rain will likely remain offshore based on the current guidance, though its wind field could expand should it undergo post-tropical transition as it heads northward offshore next week.

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 5 pm, Tropical Storm Jose was located at 25.2°N, 67.3°W. Over the past 18 hours, it had tracked approximately 130 kilometers to the west. At present, Jose is beginning to add a northerly component to its motion.

Overall, the overall weight of the guidance argues against U.S. landfall. A few more ECMWF ensemble members suggest landfall, but most don't. In terms of historic climatology, 25% of the August-September storms passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 pm position (1851-present) made U.S. landfall. That is somewhat higher than the 18% figure last night at 11 pm. One should reasonably have expected such an increased probability on account of Jose's closer proximity to the U.S. The increase is not sufficiently great to warrant much change in thinking, especially in light of the 12z guidance.

The probability of landfall in Canada remained greater than that for the United States. Newfoundland and Labrador remained about twice as likely to see landfall as Nova Scotia. Landfall in Canada was still somewhat lower than the prospect of Jose's not making any landfall.

So, at least for now, increasingly large swells and strong rip currents will likely be Jose's principal effects along much of the East Coast. The storm's strongest winds and rain will likely remain offshore based on the current guidance, though its wind field could expand should it undergo post-tropical transition as it heads northward offshore next week.

Don, the center doesn't need to come ashore in order for this to be a damaging storm for the beaches. I think the probability of significant erosion and coastal flooding is increasing.

[Joe4alb]

18z GFS coming in slightly NW of 12z run through 114hrs

[klw]

Curious as to what is Jose's current ACE and is there a link to where it can be found.

[yoda]

Close pass to SNE at 138

[Amped]

Next storm 936mb south of PR at 150hrs, not much time for sleep this season.

[snow1]

18z gfs is still offshore 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snow1 said:

18z gfs is still offshore 

But west of 12z

Trend so far has been closer to the coast

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Amped said:

Next storm 936mb south of PR at 150hrs, not much time for sleep this season.

2 storms to watch in the tropics

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

2 storms to watch in the tropics

Yeah and there's a huge ridge off the east coast so here we go again. 

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

lol @ 90-95 mph gusts

what a garbage storm

big difference between how that affects Florida and NY (how would a Mag 6-7 earthquake effect Fla vs Ca?)- no power for me for 25 hours and I was one of the lucky ones, some people didn't have power for weeks or months.  Also the surge was close to 10 ft here in western Long Island and up to 17-20 feet in NYC, that's a much higher surge than one would expect with those winds. 

 

[bigtenfan]

21 hours ago, winterymix said:

I'm no expert for marine forecasting but it seems likely to me that cruise ships off the coasts of mid-Atlantic and off of the coasts of New England

are going to modify their plotted courses as a function of avoiding choppy seas secondary to Jose.

Thank you so much

[bigtenfan]

21 hours ago, kdennis78 said:

I don't know if this helps you, but here's the end of the most recent Forecast Discussion from the Mt. Holly/Philadelphia office regarding marine conditions in the NJ/DE area:

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through Thursday. Patchy fog possible
tonight. Otherwise, leftover showers should end this evening.
Long period 3-4 foot se swells continue on the Atlantic waters.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday night-Friday night...Generally sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions expected. Seas forecast to be 3-4 feet.

Saturday-Monday...Conditions may reach Small Craft Advisory
levels as seas may build to 5 feet. Sct afternoon showers.

Rip Currents...
This evening...Moderate except added HIGH risk of RC to 3 NJ
counties for the remainder of this afternoon...our calculator
has no more than moderate risk but a report of lifeguard concern
prompted the issuance.

Thursday: Moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents. Long- period (10-14 sec) southeasterly swells from
Hurricane Jose continue.

Looking ahead...a low or moderate risk is expected Friday then
larger longer period swells from tropical cyclone Jose should
arrives this weekend and we expect moderate or high risk days
from Saturday through at least next Tuesday with swells building
to 5 to 6 feet and period lengthening to near 15 seconds. Even
surfers can suffer injury from wave slam and certainly swimmers
are asked to follow lifeguard and other official advice... and
in my opinion...in these upcoming conditions its not worth the
risk.

The link to the full discussion is here if you're interested. I hope you get to go and that you have a great time!

Thank you so much