Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[leo2000]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Because all guidance has been going that way. It's getting to a more Nina look with a cold stratosphere. For the time being anyways. The good news is that it's good to see bottom up effects like we've seen. I am hoping this can happen during winter, with the aid of a -QBO.

That AO chart doesn't indicate though look at how negative it is. Plus we may pop a +PNA which would help out. 

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Happy to hear Jerry . Quite the week for friends. Two including you had tumors removed that were benign, 1 coworker not so lucky with a brain tumor that's likely fatal. The one who had the heart tumor removed Dad came up to stay with her during her recovery. He had a heart attack and died. Horrible 

So glad you will be around to reference Leon for many years to come although you probably wish you didn't have to live through this Giants season Lol

 

Thanks Steve!   Tough week for your friends-a lot of misery-so sorry!

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

That AO chart doesn't indicate though look at how negative it is. Plus we may pop a +PNA which would help out. 

That's the GEFS which seem to bias negative. The EPS goes positive.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's the GEFS which seem to bias negative. The EPS goes positive.

ESP struggled mightly with this past cold shot 10 days out. There is a huge spread in solutions and changeable run to run. GEFS are very cold . If we experience a pop to positive we may see a Archambault heavy precip event which may hit Interior NNE with their first big snow of the year. Certainly very difficult for modeling to capture exactly so we watch

[Ginx snewx]

Some not worthy dates here for Tday for NNE to watch

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

ESP struggled mightly with this past cold shot 10 days out. There is a huge spread in solutions and changeable run to run. GEFS are very cold . If we experience a pop to positive we may see a Archambault heavy precip event which may hit Interior NNE with their first big snow of the year. Certainly very difficult for modeling to capture exactly so we watch

Yeah the smaller scale stuff can be tough, but the overall trend on guidance is to show this. The tropics also argue for it too.They showed this before models caught on....if you recall me talking about how guidance had a look the tropical forcing did not really agree with. It's finally getting back to a typical Nina look. What I would like to see is the dateline ridging to really extend into the N pole and also further east into AK. 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the smaller scale stuff can be tough, but the overall trend on guidance is to show this. The tropics also argue for it too.They showed this before models caught on....if you recall me talking about how guidance had a look the tropical forcing did not really agree with. It's finally getting back to a typical Nina look. What I would like to see is the dateline ridging to really extend into the N pole and also further east into AK. 

You are big on tropical forcing. It's a piece for sure. Not sure what a typical Nina strongly East based looks like as they are very rare 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You are big on tropical forcing. It's a piece for sure. Not sure what a typical Nina strongly East based looks like as they are very rare 

It can be voodoo and I admit that....but it also has big implications. I respect it and toss it when need be.   

[weathafella]

Dateline ridging isn’t bad.  We just have to get it more robust and maybe 2007-08 is starting to show. 

[SJonesWX]

10 hours ago, Snow88 said:

18z GEFS has the 2 inch line into NYC throughout the run with a lot of snow for inland areas and near the lakes region

I think we will all see some snow with this upcoming pattern

i know i shouldn't reply to this, but:

a) it's the GFS

b. it's the 18z GFS

3.. it's the 18z GFS for hour 384. 15 days from now.

Sure. 2" for NYC

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

i know i shouldn't reply to this, but:

a) it's the GFS

b. it's the 18z GFS

3.. it's the 18z GFS for hour 384. 15 days from now.

Sure. 2" for NYC

It’s the ensemble product and total snow potential over the entire run.  

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

i know i shouldn't reply to this, but:

a) it's the GFS

b. it's the 18z GFS

3.. it's the 18z GFS for hour 384. 15 days from now.

Sure. 2" for NYC

He does this every winter, posts 384 hour gfs fantasy runs

[Damage In Tolland]

Colder runs last night and less zonal and more troughiness in east. White turkey day in the cards 

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Colder runs last night and less zonal and more troughiness in east. White turkey day in the cards 

You need to learn to stay the course...none of this flip flopping nonsense. 

[Typhoon Tip]

So I think I finally have cracked the code of Kevin  ...

Here's what happens:  The weather pattern sucks... particularly sucks for the whole 'in season' mantra.  And part of the sucking isn't even warmth in winter (which it technically is not, but for simplicity -); almost worst than warmth, or even record warmth (whereby excitement and 'awe' may be recouped by rareness alone), you have pretty much nothing happening either way. 

Eventually, ... the din of the social media simmers down as folks sort of lose interest in low drama.  Posting frequency decreases...  Palpable excitement is utterly rarefied, and the only thing anyone puts up is random trivialities from their own lives that no one really reads.  Basically, ...pin drop times have taken over. 

It is THAT time, that Kevin opts to post:  "Colder runs last night and less zonal and more troughing in the east. White turkey day in the cards."

This is probably a personal stratagem on his part - to offer a bit of an elixir for his mind-numbing ...ultimately, intolerance and inability to accept that nothing is going on. He simply must have his drama and in the absence of 'real' need to heighten urgency, manufacturing something ...anything, is a preferential delusion over the alternative despair.  Basically ... nothing's going on?  Okay, lie - ..it's that simple. That way, the operating level of excitement never has off

And the furthering upshot ... ?  He gets attention -

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You need to learn to stay the course...none of this flip flopping nonsense. 

Ah, don’t be so hard on him. We know he’s pro choice but doesn’t believe in abortion. 

[LoveSN+]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You need to learn to stay the course...none of this flip flopping nonsense. 

It's hard to stay a course when you're calling for cold and snowy two weeks out and then one model run changes to a less favorable pattern.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So I think I finally have cracked the code of Kevin  ...

Here's what happens:  The weather pattern sucks... particularly sucks for the whole 'in season' mantra.  And part of the sucking isn't even warmth in winter (which it technically is not, but for simplicity -); almost worst than warmth, or even record warmth (whereby excitement and 'awe' may be recouped by rareness alone), you have pretty much nothing happening either way. 

Eventually, ... the din of the social media simmers down as folks sort of lose interest in low drama.  Posting frequency decreases...  Palpable excitement is utterly rarefied, and the only thing anyone puts up is random trivialities from their own lives that no one really reads.  Basically, ...pin drop times have taken over. 

It is THAT time, that Kevin opts to post:  "Colder runs last night and less zonal and more troughing in the east. White turkey day in the cards."

This is probably a personal stratagem on his part - to offer a bit of an elixir for his mind-numbing ...ultimately, intolerance and inability to accept that nothing is going on. He simply must have his drama and in the absence of 'real' need to heighten urgency, manufacturing something ...anything, is a preferential delusion over the alternative despair.  Basically ... nothing's going on?  Okay, lie - 

 

Bingo!!

 

Looking for people to Chime in..(particularly METS) and comment on the future pattern..reassuring him that it's still looks like Cold and Snow.   

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So I think I finally have cracked the code of Kevin  ...

Here's what happens:  The weather pattern sucks... particularly sucks for the whole 'in season' mantra.  And part of the sucking isn't even warmth in winter (which it technically is not, but for simplicity -); almost worst than warmth, or even record warmth (whereby excitement and 'awe' may be recouped by rareness alone), you have pretty much nothing happening either way. 

Eventually, ... the din of the social media simmers down as folks sort of lose interest in low drama.  Posting frequency decreases...  Palpable excitement is utterly rarefied, and the only thing anyone puts up is random trivialities from their own lives that no one really reads.  Basically, ...pin drop times have taken over. 

It is THAT time, that Kevin opts to post:  "Colder runs last night and less zonal and more troughing in the east. White turkey day in the cards."

This is probably a personal stratagem on his part - to offer a bit of an elixir for his mind-numbing ...ultimately, intolerance and inability to accept that nothing is going on. He simply must have his drama and in the absence of 'real' need to heighten urgency, manufacturing something ...anything, is a preferential delusion over the alternative despair.  Basically ... nothing's going on?  Okay, lie - ..it's that simple. That way, the operating level of excitement never has off

And the furthering upshot ... ?  He gets attention -

 

 

Except if you bothered to look you’d have seen things look much more promising this morning than they have the last couple of days. 

Heres a small hint.. stay away from long , rambling, war and peace type posts that I promise you no one reads.. and stick to short, sweet, weather related , attention grabbing posts. It will make your time both here and with the disc golf fellows much more enjoyable.

Life is about adaptation and change 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except if you bothered to look you’d have seen things look much more promising this morning than they have the last couple of days. 

Heres a small hint.. stay away from long , rambling, war and peace type posts that I promise you no one reads.. and stick to short, sweet, weather related , attention grabbing posts. It will make your time both here and with the disc golf fellows much more enjoyable.

Life is about adaptation and change 

[WintersComing]

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except if you bothered to look you’d have seen things look much more promising this morning than they have the last couple of days. 

Heres a small hint.. stay away from long , rambling, war and peace type posts that I promise you no one reads.. and stick to short, sweet, weather related , attention grabbing posts. It will make your time both here and with the disc golf fellows much more enjoyable.

Life is about adaptation and change 

Ah haha...

this is all the confirmation and proof needed for establishing the veracity of the cracked Keven code -  

Nailed it!  as demonstrated by the acuteness of his throbbing nerves -

Notice the (bold) ending statement there, folks? Completely and utterly self-exposing.  That is a typical (also) in the tactical spin code of the 'Kevtar,' that when it's baseless vapidity is exposed...attempt a re-direct.  Because the irony there, it is HE that cannot change and adapt - to the reality that there is no reason for any excitement right now - to mention, the unimaginable horror that he might just have to actual wait for something legitimate to come along... Holy f sh t ..can you imagine? 

 

[dryslot]

lol

[Typhoon Tip]

Kevin I'm only f'n with ya man...

I didn't actually see much overnight to dissuade my own thinking that particularly the operational models (less the GFS), are at odds with (at least) the GEFs derived teleconnectors. Not sure what that means ... or most importantly, which way things will ultimately go, but it's the same contention as was evidenced yesterday.

Although, regarding the latter ... the Pacific may be 'slightly' less encouraging... but still, so long as the WPO keeps correcting negative in mode out in time, that should stress the Pacific circulation in the mid latitudes toward the AA phase (which just means that the northern and southern aspects of the field tend to phase more; 'AB' thus means they are at odds...)

anyway, AA means that blocking is favored, and well.. .the EPO keeps trying to dip in the ensemble means/EOFs.  I'd give it all about 60/40 in favor of cold loading into the NW sectors of the America (still). 

The NAO is really at odds in the guidance, though. The GFS operational has a much more coherent -NAO (west based, too...) look, but ...interestingly (and much to Kevin's chagrin), it is anomalously displacing the whole construct from the northern D. Straight region of the Maritimes, clear down the Va Capes, about 1,500 miles N of where those features typically align in a negative NAO.  Not sure why that is...perhaps seasonal?  ...in any case, that is allowing subsequent trough expressions of the 20th - the 30th of the month to modeled too far N to get the winter snow geese there wings.  It's cold and blustery ...wet at times ending as flurries and mountain-top/up-slope glory if that's your sort of thing .. but, it's hard to get system 'under' LI in that 'as is' evolution. 

That's the best... The Euro?  holy crap...what a P.O.S. ...and not because it may or may not be correct, but it is like seemingly purposefully engineering diametrically opposing solutions to what anyone of the winter enthusiast ilk actually wants.  Really pretty remarkable... My guess at this point is why buck trends?   The next run will be even more terrifyingly wrong in that regard, ...some how, some way, it will cook up a solution that looks just that much more insulting and disappointing to what Kevin wants...

 

annnnd then of course, he'll post how awesome everything looks -

[CoastalWx]

I think Kevin is knee jerking a bit too much.there has been no wholesale change for days. You can't just run with every wax and wane of the ensembles.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think Kevin is knee jerking a bit too much.there has been no wholesale change for days. You can't just run with every wax and wane of the ensembles.

A butterfly farts on the other side of the world and somewhere in Tolland an entire winter outlook gets rewritten. 

[OSUmetstud]

I was trying to figure out the mechanism that la Nina produces the wet conditions in the northeast and southern Canada. Is it the increase in Amazonian rainfall building the southeast ridge?  

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

A butterfly farts on the other side of the world and somewhere in Tolland an entire winter outlook gets rewritten. 

May be a little off topic but.......do Butterflies actually fart?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think Kevin is knee jerking a bit too much.there has been no wholesale change for days. You can't just run with every wax and wane of the ensembles.

What stood out to me was stronger ridging in the SW part of the country , which have positive ramifications for us.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Except if you bothered to look you’d have seen things look much more promising this morning than they have the last couple of days. 

Heres a small hint.. stay away from long , rambling, war and peace type posts that I promise you no one reads.. and stick to short, sweet, weather related , attention grabbing posts. It will make your time both here and with the disc golf fellows much more enjoyable.

Life is about adaptation and change 

This is lol, classic worthy.